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There needs to be a significant difference between Septimus and Yeats in order for the Doncaster/Lonsdale Cup winner to stand any chance of being a serious competitor for the Melbourne Cup.
Both Yeats and Septimus are superior stayers to those of the antipodean kind – I’ll take it further and say both are 10 lengths+ better than anything mustered up by the Australians. (Would not dare to utter those words locally)
But the key factor which destroyed Yeats’ opportunity was <b>sprint</b>. You need one for a Melbourne Cup. Yeats may have run his race by frothing up at the mouth and chomping away 1 hour before racetime (I watched him in his stall from arrival to parade ring), but 400m out he was toast as Pop Rock and Delta Blues swept past the dour kind.
Septimus cannot be similar in any way possible. Scorpion would have been ideal and likely to have won the race last year, as I recall a tactical race with a finishing sprint in the Coronation Cup, one which Septimus carried the field along before Scorpion snatched gold.
Does Septimus have a sprint in him at all? Is he too one-paced? Does he fit a genuine Melbourne Cup profile?
7/1 favourite on Betfred. Reigning Melbourne Cup holder Efficient is second in the four available markets.
I don’t fancy him one bit for the Cup, because he’ll be handicapped out of it and is one-paced. I’m gutted Gololphin didn’t consider the race for All the Good, who would have been perfect for it.
This should make you feel a little better!
Thanks Salselon, for some reason I thought he was out of the picture. 53 kg coudn’t be called lenient, but it doesn’t look too bad- I’ll definitely be backing him.
Chris McGrath writes and I quote "Septimus had meanwhile duly completed O’Brien’s clean sweep of his home Classics by winning the Irish Leger with absurd ease, and he could well lap the Australians in the Melbourne Cup". How about that?.
I was surprised Septimus quickened up most impressively in the Irish St Leger, in the style which can be rewarding in the Melbourne Cup.
He didn’t quicken Myles. Watch the race again.. He just gallops everything into the ground.
Having thought about it and from watching him run again I don’t think this horse will win the Melbourne Cup. They’d be better off sending him to the Cadran or something like that.
I agree that he did not burst away from his field like the Duke.However to gallop them into the ground over a mile and six is doing something right.Maybe it just seems like he did not quicken because he does it remorselessly.When asked to move he did so immediately.What he was doing before that enabled him to keep up.If he starts his move at the same place in Melbourne there will be no one in sight at the finish.
I agree that he did not burst away from his field like the Duke.However to gallop them into the ground over a mile and six is doing something right.Maybe it just seems like he did not quicken because he does it remorselessly.When asked to move he did so immediately.What he was doing before that enabled him to keep up.If he starts his move at the same place in Melbourne there will be no one in sight at the finish.
The ever trotted out maxim is that you need a horse with a turn of foot though and on repeated occasions Septimus has shown he doesn’t really have a turn of foot.. He’s quick for a stayer but i’m not sure he’s capable of doing what efficient did last year..
Septimus’ staying pattern could be deceiving, but I remember watching him with horses on his outside and inside and all of a sudden, two to three lengths had he amassed.
I don’t think his Lonsdale Cup win was a win of any speed though, and probably not the Dante.
The problem I see is – I wouldn’t know for a second why they would take Septimus to the Melbourne Cup if he was any similar to Yeats? Had they not learned that a horse needs a turn-of-foot in these silly antipodean staying drag races?
Septimus won over a mile and 2 last year at the Curragh. See Racing Post description of race and form of Fracas whom he beat that day for more information.He looks more like a bull than a horse but don’t be deceived,he knows how to run.The racing Post described the Dante as like a Hurdle race because of the distances but he was first so no blame his.Those behind can take credit for the distances.Be assured Aidan’s improve from 3 to 5.If Yeats were not such an attractive horse and Septimus such a bull they might have reversed racing roles.
Septimus will not need a turn of foot if he is in front six furlongs out and can maintain full speed to the finish. The hurdle is that the fast early pace takes its toll on the dour types. It usually takes most of their speed just to reach the front and then they become sitting ducks for the swoopers.
Septimus’ staying pattern could be deceiving
What is decieving is the handicapper did not apply a penalty to Septimus because he questioned the quality of his opposition in the St Leger.
A Group One race………..they are never just a walk in the park.
Septimus did it with all the authority of a great thoroughbred. I am happy he didn’t recieve a penalty because he already has 58kgs and that is a big enough impost in the Cup anyway.
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