- This topic has 32 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
WEEKEND HUSTLER is bred to sprint
Since when were Helissio (damsire), and At Talaq (grand-damsire) sprinters?
I would add Hussonet to that list too – his record in Chile shows he is well capable of siring middle distance horses.
On the face of it he does look to have some staying blood in his veins.
But when applying the dosage figure on "TesioPower" he comes up a sprinter. For those who are not familiar with dosage then the following link will be very helpful.http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm
Briefly it is what a sire passes to his progeny not what the sire himself was able to do on a race track.
Hussonet, the sire of Weekend Hussler is by Mr Prospector a brilliant-classic infuence while Hussonet’s dam sire Raja Baba has passed brilliant-intermediate speed to his progeny.
Weekend Husslers dam is by Helissio a son of Fairy King who like Mr Prospector is rated brilliant-classic. Helissio’s dam sire slewpy transmits brilliant speed.
At Talaq, his grandam sire won the Melbourne cup in 1986 but he has passed intermediate speed to his progeny, this is at the core of why Weekend Hussler will not stay two miles. The only genuine staying influence is the third dam’s sire Grosvenor. He is rated classic-solid but this is well back in the pedigree.
Although his dosage suggests he is a sprinter it is only a guide as some horses defy their dosage figure. It is however most often very accurate and the horses that defy the dosage do not go completely opposite.Summary
2000m he is likely to win on class alone.
Group One Cox Plate 2040m I would have little confidence but it may be possible.
2400m Caufield Cup – I am a Maldivian fan and have backed him to beat the Hussler.
3200m Melbourne Cup as I said lay him all dayThat does highlight some of the problems of the dosage system. For Europeans, it has long been known as unreliable for non-American racing,
As Hussonet is not a chef-de-race himself, it does not take into account his own record as a sire – which has plenty of evidence to suggest his progeny can stay 12f, as well as being successful over mile trips.
It also completely ignores the tail female line (a pet gripe of mine!), which has produced middle distance horses (including a half brother to the dam). And I can’t check my facts right now, but doesn’t the second dam Never On Friday have Group form over 12f?
None of that sounds like sprinter breeding to me, whatever the dosage figure (which is after all just some assigned numbers averaged out) says.
Without looking too closely at his ped, I wouldn’t ever claim that he is bred to stay the Melbourne Cup trip, but then I guess quite a few past winners don’t have out-and-out staying profiles.
I find it extraordinary that there are still people who give any credence to this ridiculous pseudo-science.
As Sal says, the female influences (and not just the tail female line) in a pedigree are given no weight at all in determining a horses ‘likely distance requirements. So that’s 50% of a horse’s pedigree written off before you’ve even got started
And how, exactly, does a stallion become a “chef”?
By passing an objective set of tests or criteria in a way that can be scientifically or mathematically measured?
No, a stallion becomes a “chef” when Dr Roman says so.
Sal, I agree completely with your concerns about the female input.
But for all the short comings of the dosage system I have found it to be reasonably accurate when predicting distance aptitude."As Hussonet is not a chef-de-race himself"
Hussonet has been a fantastic sire, but like many of the worlds best sire’s he has not been classified a "chef de race" as yet.
And how, exactly, does a stallion become a "chef"?
Venusian, in laymans terms it is much like this as I understand it.
You put big rocks, little rocks and sand into a machine.
If the product coming out the other end is all sand then you have a crusher (chef de race).
If the product comes out big rocks, little rocks and sand then there has been no real change in the product from the ingredients.Many of the great sire’s produce quality black type performers but do not generally change the input the mare has contributed in relation to distance aptitude. In this case the mare’s influence is recognised as more potent in relation to distance aptitude, conversley the sire has had little impact.
A "chef de race" like SADLER’S WELLS classic-solid by NORTERN DANCER brilliant-classic, shows that the majority of mares that mated with SADLER’S WELLS returned progeny that were 2000m – 3200m performers no matter what the mare’s influence (a speed mare was still likely to produce classic-solid performing offspring).
There are many that defy this pattern but it must be a signifigant number of progeny to be influenced for a sire to become a chef.
The sire can have a certain influence to his direct progeny only to be proven some what a different influence as a broodmare sire, hence the dual classification.I used to grapple with the classification of sire’s and the seaming lack of respect placed on other better sire’s until the penny dropped and I understood the fundimentals of the system.
REMEMBER IT IS ONLY A GUIDE
Line breeding, dosage etc are no use in predicting quality. That is the job of your eye and most champions have that undetectable will to win that makes them great and unfortunately or fortunately, that is the great unknown no matter the size of your wallet.
Past Melbourne Cup winners dosage – consider a mile and a half horse is considered the correct type. I use 1-9 to indicate at which end of the scale they sit. (ie sprinter 9 and miler 1 are close in distance where as sprinter 1 and miler 9 are well apart)
2007 Efficient = stayer 2
2006 Delta Blues = middle distance 7.5
2003 – 2005 Makybe Diva = miler 6
2002 Media Puzzle = middle distance 5
2001 Ethereal = miler 6
2000 Brew = middle distance 7We can go on but you will not find a sprinter
Weekend Hussler = early sprinter!!!!!
Yeats = stayer 2
Septimus = stayer 1SCHIAPARELLI = middle distance 5
My latest info is that the Arc is more likely for schiaparelli.
As Sal says, the female influences (and not just the tail female line) in a pedigree are given no weight at all in determining a horses ‘likely distance requirements. So that’s 50% of a horse’s pedigree written off before you’ve even got started [/color:y0084tfu]
As in the explanation above
SADLERS WELLS is classic/solid, his sire Northern Dancer was brilliant/classic and his sire Nearctic brilliant.
The change in the classifications down the sire line was influenced directly by the mare’s.
This is proof enough that the ladies have a signifigant influence !
FAIRY BRIDGE must have had a greater influence in sadlers Wells than the great Northern Dancer. NATALMA more than Nearctic.
Even if the dams evaluation is concluded through the men in her pedigree her ability to pass on the dominant genes is undeniable.
"As Hussonet is not a chef-de-race himself"
Hussonet has been a fantastic sire, but like many of the worlds best sire’s he has not been classified a "chef de race" as yet.
And this is where the grey areas come in. It obviously takes plenty of time and an abundance of evidence until a sire is classified as a chef-de-race. But until that arbitary time when he is classified, then his evidence is utterly ignored by the system.
So yesterday, Hussonet has no individual inflluence himself – tomorrow, just because Dr Roman has decided – he becomes a dominant factor? Give me a break. Before Sadler’s Wells was classified (and it took an astonishingly long time to recognise his influence) many European pedigrees came out with very odd results.
I’m not suggesting that Hussonet will ever become a chef-de-race – the system doesn’t appear flexible enough to recognise any input from anything apart the most absolutely obvious sources. But it is undoubted that many of his progeny stay 12f, and as his half-brother was a Gr.1 winner over 12f, and his grandam is a half-sister to an Irish Leger winner, it seems very possible that he (rather than Mr Prospector) is having some say in this.
The idea of pedigree analysis is to examine all the evidence. Dosage, to me, seems to be mainly willful ignorance of much of the data available.
Yes, it is a guide. But when neither the sire nor the damsire are chef-de-race, then the dosage figure should be taken with a large pinch of salt, and the other evidence should be given preference.
Seriously, who uses the dosage system? The Yanks on the Kentucky Derby trail because apparently a certain dosage index keeps popping up with the winners.
It’s flawed, it’s out-of-date, disrespected and a waste of time.
And if Weekend Hussler is a sprinter according to your wonderful dosage index – how the f#!% did he win over a mile two weeks back?
Christ. Racing revolves around a few specific locations: the betting shop, the racetrack and the stables – not laboratories.
What you see on the racetrack is what you get.
Sorry – I just hate anyone trying to chime in with an argument based on the Dosage Index.
I wouldn’t ever go that far.
I think the dosage system does have some value for American pedigrees which conform to the original design and expectations of dosage.
It can be an interesting reference point, and very definitely an interesting topic for discussion!
What it is not is foolproof, or adaptable. For pedigrees that have little chef-de-race input (basically non-US) it can be at best pointless and at worst very deceptive.
I think, well I hope, that dosage was never meant to be used as a stand-alone judgement on pedigrees. It should always be used with reference back to other evidence – evidence from other aspects of pedigree research, evidence from the track and evidence of our own eyes.
If Snooperclyde had argued that Weekend Hussler was a Melbourne Cup lay based on his track performances, his racing profile, his breeding and his dosage figure, I wouldn’t have an argument with that – it’s his opinion. However, he argues purely that it is lay bet because WH is ‘bred to sprint’ based on his dosage figure, and ignores hefty chunks of evidence to the contrary.
I hope Snooperclyde does feel free to ‘chime in’ with his further opinions about this, as it is an interesting topic, despite your discouragement.
Here is an article from an Australian site which looks at the distance requirements of all Weekend Hussler’s antecedents in the first 4 generations.
Good lord, is no-one in Australia capable of analysing a pedigree intelligently, logically and objectively?
FCS – you couldn’t have landed yourself at a worse website for Australian racing information than the bloke who whinges and waffles and knows about as much as the blue-collar slob who sits in the PubTAB all day.
Don’t for a second use JustRacing as a yardstick.
You could have chosen any website, any website … but you found THAT one.
Feel like I jumped into a tub of boiling water!
Dosage does get the blood boiling, especially you Miles.
Slow down its just a conversation, and we can agree to disagree about the value of dosage. I did write in capitals "it’s only a guide".
I did not venture into the common knowledge as it is freely available and does back up my claim that the Hussler will not stay two miles.
Hussonet’s Australian stakes winners
Dirty – BTC Vo Rogue Plate 1350m
Huiskes – TRC Elwick Stakes 1100m
Husson Lightning – VRC Maribyrnong Plate 1000m
Reaan – MRC Blue DiamondStakes + the Preview 1200m + 1000m
Rios – WRC Wellington Guineas + Bonecrusher 1500m + 1400m
And Weekend Hussler – Ascot Vale 1200m, Oakleigh Plate 1100m, Randwick guineas 1600m, Newmarket 1200m, George Rider 1500m, Caulfield guineas 1600m all Group One races and Group Two Memsie 1400m and his last start Makybe Diva stakes 1600m in 1.38 and change on a good surface. Your average maiden winner can beat that time so that tells the story of how it was run.
Now don’t get cross with me I think he is a superstar………. The way he is going he will surpass the brilliant Lonhro and maybe even Sunline but he will have to prove that first.
Now you prove to me that there has been a Melbourne Cup winner or a stayer in Europe or the USA that can win the premier sprint races (Newmarket and Oakleigh Plate) in the nation as well.
The immortal Makybe Diva herself one first up over 1400m but even she would not place in the Oakleigh or the Newmarket.The Chile runners of Hussonet I note have won Derby’s times three, and one Oaks winner also numerous sprinters but not one Cup winner that I can trace.
As Hussonet was only an moderate runner you must ignore him and go by his parentage to get a true guide anyway.
Sal the second dam Not on Friday won group two 1600m so the staying ability will be all down to Helissio. Can his influence get the two miles?
No, I don’t think he will – he is definitely not bred to stay two miles; that fact was never in question for me. My challenge is with the dosage assignment of sprinter breeding, which I think is totally out of line with the evidence.
I think, given the good classic distance horses Hussonet produced in Chile, and the stouter influences from WH’s dam side (Never On Friday had Group 1 placed form over 12f, she was more than just a miler; her two black-type produce have Group wins at 10 & a half and 12f) that he would be capable of top form over 10f. The sprinter prowess he has shown may indicate that 12f is too far for him to be at his best.
However, my area of ignorance is in the general pattern of the Melbourne Cup itself. It is unlike European racing in that many of the entrants are not specialist stayers, correct? Many are running over mile or 10f for most of their careers before trying the cup trip for the first time on the day. I presume the training methods are different, to allow this adaptability, so maybe it is more possible that WH can switch codes from sprinter to distance horse in Australia than in Europe. Vintage Crop was a true-bred stayer in a way that many of the domestic runners were not. That is why I wouldn’t risk a lay.
Interestingly, previous winners have come from much speedier dam lines. Efficient’s dam had black type over 6f and his half brother (by Montjeu!) has won a Gr.2 over a mile – nothing in his family had black type over further than 10f; Rogan Josh had bags of sprinters in his ped… and now I’ve run out of time.
Sorry for the ramble…
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.