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Snap – also have a 1pt on Punchestowns at 12s for World Hurdle.
Additionally I am a big fan of Pettifour and have 1pt at 16s…think he has a great chance tomorrow also and 6/1 looks a very fair price to me.I like your thinking on the Gold Cup Bul’ but have probably drawn different conclusions as I don’t rate last years RSA too highly. We will know an awful lot more on Saturday Evening as AR, AF1 and BB all go outside their previous population of opponents for the first time.
I think AR or even BB could win Hennessy but cant see a Gold Cup winner even if KS and Denman dont show in March.
War Of Attrition has impressed me greatly this year and I have had 1pt at 25s.Interesting stuff Cav…thanks.
Back to the Betfair for a minute if Cloudy Lane is reckoned to have run to form and this has affected SL rating then I would say this is misleading. I feel Cloudy Bay could have been involved in the finish if he had been ridden properly. His jockey semed to think KS was going to win comfortably and when the race fell apart at the last he was not in a position to take advantage. He ran about 8-12lbs below form for me."The Queen Mother is a great race to win, but the Gold Cup is arguably the ultimate for any trainer"
Re Tidal Bay…all those Tingle Creeks and QMs didn’t do Moscow Flyer’s reputation any harm…not round our house anyway.
I like Pandorama very much and find it difficult to believe that there will be anything with more talent in the field. Two things however concerned me, the first is the ground, likely to be good to soft or better on the Wednesday. I don’t think this is a huge problem and I think Pandorama can handle decent ground.
Secondly is Noel Meade’s ability to deliver Cheltenham winners after they have proven themselves the best of their generation or division in Ireland. The list is now a fairly long one, and whilst I think Pandorama may be the best of them…it does worry me.Cheers Bulwark…good read.
I am on Simarian after Open Meeting…worth a pop at 25s.
The race he won has a good record, like you his breeding impresses (dam is half sister to Sinndar) and he looks a staying type. I would think he will be quite a few lengths better on the New Course. Also his record so far will mean a h’cap mark that will probably exclude the Fred Winter.
Looks a decent ante post bet to me.Friggo
re Our Vic…I was thinking exactly that…does anyone know his plans, is it straight there as last year? In one sense he is the obvious choice for the KG if you submit to the theory that Kauto will not recapture his best, I must say I do now on the grounds of the records of french breds as they reach 9.
Tidal Bay, Imperial Commander, Noland and VPU are all untried at the trip. Exotic Dancer has as many questions to answer as Kauto but does so from a significantly lower level of talent. War of Attrition probably won’t travel and last years top novices such as Albertas and AF1 must go through the Hennessy then take on the big boys at levels.
Making the assumption that Kauto does not retian the same level of ability (i know but lets assume for a moment) it is probable that a lower level of performance will be required this year. OV, if well, looks a decent prospect at 20/1+Probably would be wiser to wait till after decs tomorrow but I really like the chances of Slim Pickings in the big race next Saturday. I feel strongly that this is a beast who’s true ability has been masked by two seasons of effort to get the best possible handicap mark for the season’s most valueable prize, the Grand National.
Read on the RP site that connections have finally accepted that he doesn’t quite stay well enough to win the big one. Now is the time therefore for this admirable 9-y-o to cash in. He looks attracively weighted (will probably carry 11-1) and has always travelled with real power through 3 and a half miles in the National. At 16/1 he will be my biggest bet this season to date, assuming he is declared on Monday. Knowhere and Albertas Run appeal as alternatives.Can’t agree that he did the same thing as last year….last year he had control, jumped well and confirmed superiority over a lesser but able rival.
Contrast to yesterday when he travelled well till the race started in earnest then jumped poorly, came under pressure and fell/ur. All of this against rivals who were 12-20lbs his inferior.
Also what evidence is there that ‘PN obviously let him down’ …has PN said as much?Thanks for that Bos’… didn’t see the interview.
Interesting, what was Paul’s explanation as to why the horse is just as good this season?ED was ridden totally differently and (in retrospect) all wrong in last years KG. That is why there was such a big turn around from the Betfair.
It was worth trying though as KS kept beating him when held up.
I think ED is proving a bit of a red herring here, its KS proximity to the others (Cloudy Lane would have been involved also if his jockey hadn’t been giving him an easy one) that is the worry.
6/4 is not at all tempting.Given the shape of the season with the predominance of Saturdays and the number of good horses housed in a small number of stables, I think that the move to midweek for a small number of races will be repeated and would be welcome.
Heres my view on the last 12 months for Kauto, its opinion not fact and others opinions may be more accurate but its what I truly believe to be the case;
Dec 07 KG Was as good as ever, stunning win.
Feb 08 Ascot Was as good as ever, his time was almost off the scale. One of best 3 in last 6 years (on my ratings).
Mar 08 GC Was almost as good as ever, may (not definetly) have been feeling the effects of stunning Ascot performance. Was got at it by a top notch stayer, jumping went and then faded on run in after a brave rally.
Apr 08 Aint’ Was as good as ever, only got beat by his ‘on tilt’ jockey trying to prove to the world he could win like Denman by 10 lengths. Took it up at halfway, then again 3 out, tried to win by a wide margin. Got chinned. Ridden normally would have beaten an in form rival by 4-6 lengths (imho).
Nov 08 DR Looked as good as ever, but as some wise judges (not me) pointed out was never threatened by fancied rivals and beating Light On the Broom by 11 lengths was not proof of anything much and this might count against him when in a proper race.
Nov 08 Hay’ Struggling and possibly/probably beaten when falling against inferior horses.
Again only opinion, but he is a french bred horse and they usually just don’t hang around that long, he has actually already had remarkable longevity and showed great fortitude for one of his breed. I am certain we have seen the best of him, he might be able to winner another big one in certain circumstamces but my head tells me not.
Didnt he make two very big blunders when wide at the 4th last and last in his first KG?
Ok Bos, some fair points. Ruby is a better jock then Sam, no doubt. But how are mistakes ‘avoidable’ with Kauto. He has always been a law to himself in that regard. Its Russian roulette sometimes.
Sorry Bos, but I think you may be missing the point. A debate on his relative merit with Exotic Dancer is now redundant. He couldnt beat Snoopy Loopy and Tamarinbleu off level weights.
A bit of retro-fitting of the facts to compile a ‘poor’ ride from Thomas also. He was all over the leader at the 2nd last and not his old self from there.
Big questions now for the old warrior.