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There’s something very wrong with sending sympathy his way – he’s every bit as corrupt as those recently banned for race fixing.
quote]What kind of thinking is this?
Trying to win in the face of rules which are misguided and have no rationale based the BHA’s own research is the same as race fixing?
Get a grip of yourself.Surely the fact that he only got going 1f out in the Haldon Gold Cup tells you that he’s not a 2-miler.
.Not sure it is Zark’…he was on and off the bridle a number of times at Exeter and it was his class rather than running to form that pulled him through near the end.
His form last season before February was frankly very puzzling and moderate, twice beaten conclusively by the ordinary Ghizao it was only the spring sunshine that seemed to rejuvinate him.
Being familiar with his profile I think his runs this year at Exeter and Kempton have been much more encouraging than normal.
He is clearly not a 2 miler that travels and cruises but there have been quite a few top two milers with his run style…Viking Flagship being the epitome of the type.Wouldn’t want Silviniaco Conti for any race at Cheltenham – as far as I can see his best form is on right handed sharp tracks.
His best form is indeed right-handed but his win at Chepstow giving a good beating to Captain Chris with Frascati Park miles behind in third looks pretty decent form.
Like his stablemate Menorah, Captain Chris’s jumping technique is too poor for him to win anything at the Festival.
.Here’s the thing guys,
You are a top trainer of NH horses… you have two excellent novice chasers in the same ownership as the spring festivals approach (lets call them Captain Chris and Wishfull Thinking). It is not clear the optimum distance of either (they are novices after all) your friends in the media are offering plenty of opinions on trips from 16f to 24f.At Cheltenham, despite some disbelief you run one (CC) over 16f…he wins the Arkle. You run the other (WT) over 20f…he is an honourable 2nd and goes on to win at 20f at both Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
CC runs again over 16f at Punchestown and wins another G1.
You are hailed, quite rightly, as a genius and a trainer who knows his onions and will make the right decision for his horses despite public scepticism. Your owner could hold no other view.Fast forward to the autumn and you reverse the campaigns with WT running mostly at 16f and CC being stated as having a 24f campaign with a possible drop to 20f if he ‘doesnt stay’. Neither of your horses has won at all so far this season despite 5 runs and the only likely victory was denied by an unlucky unseat when CC was running over 18f…the shortest distance tried and closest to his G1 successes.
Now how do you explain this switcheroo…
Captain Chris
* His best form is course and distance form for the QM
* Despite what reet says the Arkle was over as a race by the last fence
*Arkle winners have an excellent record in the QM
*He is not proven over the Gold Cup trip yet gets an entry there
but doesn’t for the QM.
His RP form comments on the only time he has attempted 24f read…"
rallied to chase leading pair after 4 out, no impression next, weakened last but clung on for 3rd"
* Much has been made of his dam winning at 3 miles but she was much better at shorter trips.
*Immediately after dismounting after the KG, Richard Johnson said, …"he wants a fast run 2 miles"Wishfull Thinking is I think the issue here…connections (wrongly in my view)think they have genuine 16f horse on the evidence of him outspeeding the slower types of Blazing Tempo, Hampshire Express & Medermit over 20f. They have misinterpreted this as 16f form…..it isn’t.
Sizing Europe and Big Zeb will disappear over the horizon.
WT’s run in the Desert Orchid is a red herring…it was run at a farcical pace and he was left to beat Oiseau De Nuit up the straight in a sprint. ODN must come from behind in a fast run 16f and was very disadvantaged by the pace of the race and and being left in front 4 out. Whilst WT managed that task Finians Rainbow (a horse with genuine 16f credentials) outsprinted him from a very bad position.
Basically WT is a 20f horse and the sooner he gets back to the discipline where he has enjoyed considerable success the better.Now back to the Captain…I don’t think an entry in the Gold Cup or even running there is bizarre or silly. I dont think he will win but I actually have a tiny bet on him for that race at nearly 30.
Phillip Hobbs has stated that they are going to run in the Denman Chase to see if they can do better than Kempton…a sensible move if you think you have a Gold Cup horse but what if he doesn’t stay? By all means find out but dont take away the QM option till you do find out. Kempton was hardly positive…you could be left with the Ryanair, a worthy race but hardly the prize required to match such a talent as Captain Chris.
Take a look at the Arkle 2011 again, Captain Chris has finished it as a contest going to the last and crosses the line full of run…not because he wants further but because he is an exceptional 16f horse.I maintain that not giving him an entry for the QM is absolutely bizarre.
Not entering Captain Chris for the QM is one of the stupidest, most scatter brained, simply bizarre decisions I have seen from connections of a top class horse for years.
The person who needs convincing is Donald McCain. Stayers do not win Arkle’s when they come up against top class two milers.
Peddlers Cross is not a stayer…all his best form is at 2 miles. Hopefully he will prove better than he showed at Kempton but he will need to be to beat SS.
He’s won a G1 and a G2 over 2 1/2 miles
Don’t think he’s a three miler but 2 1/2 should suit over fences
He ran to 170 in the Champion Hurdle (16.5f)well ahead of his next best 162 in the Fighting Fifth (16.5f) and in turn well ahead of the G1 & G2 wins (mentioned)at further. Obviously improvement from his novice season accounts for a fair bit of this.
Nevertheless, he gets 20f well but he is best (and has best form) at 2 miles in my view.The person who needs convincing is Donald McCain. Stayers do not win Arkle’s when they come up against top class two milers.
Peddlers Cross is not a stayer…all his best form is at 2 miles. Hopefully he will prove better than he showed at Kempton but he will need to be to beat SS.
These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
Not sure I would go along with you Ginger’ on each of LR, MM and KS underperforming logic. All that may not be necessary for whilst having plenty to do on form, as you say, Captain Chris has no more to do on form than Long Run had last year.
Long Run indeed improved an unusual amount last year to win Shabby. But he only had Kauto Star to under perform. Point I was trying to make is Captain Chris has three rivals to under perform.
Still not entirely in agreement Ginge’…if he makes the same step forward that LR made last year (I think he is capable of those numbers but maybe not at this trip) then he can leapfrog MM and KS in that single bound and then has only LR to contend with.
I take your main point though (if I havent misrepresented you) the Captain has at least 3 credible challengers to beat this year whereas Long Run only had Kauto last term…fair enough.Great to see him remembered with a race name…would have preferred Cheltenham rather than Newbury for his acknowledgement but the AON a very decent nod to the great horse.
Fair enough…though not in agreement about the 3 miles thing (agree on the trainer).
He has become a pet hate for me as he has a hat trick of my favourite negative attributes
1. Almost everyone on TV loves him
2. Poor win ratio
3. His top 7 or 8 performances have been in defeat.Interesting point Corm’ and one I have thought about a few times. I have always felt if you could measure how fast a horse covers the 20-30 yards after a fence then that would be informative.
Since horses travel quicker whilst running rather than jumping it should be the horse that is slowed down least by the fences that is considered the best jumper…surely?These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
They’re the first 3 in the betting (best prices, RP table), and effectively a 1/3 shot, so it’s hardly a bold shout.
Personally, I would favour both Captain Chris and Somersby to finish ahead of Kauto and Master Minded.Serious question reet…what exactly is the attraction with Sommersby? Seems beloved of many media darlings…had you down as a hard nosed realist…honestly what does anyone see in that beast?
Looks a huge fraud to me.These three are head and shoulders above the rest on form. If any other horse wins, Long Run will have to jump poorly, Kauto Star not recover from last time, and Master Minded not stay. I can see one or two of those things happening, unlikely for all three.
Not sure I would go along with you Ginger’ on each of LR, MM and KS underperforming logic. All that may not be necessary for whilst having plenty to do on form, as you say, Captain Chris has no more to do on form than Long Run had last year.
I looked at all of CCs races on video last night and a couple of things struck me…firstly he was nowhere near fit before February last season and secondly that he may be the most talented NH horse in training.
I personally think the 2 mile division is at his mercy but if he does stay 3 miles he is a big player, I think.Tell you what, I’d be a lot happier backing Dynaste e/w for the World Hurdle after today. Connor O’Farrell raced far too keenly in my eyes and set the race up for Big Buck’s, though in all honesty he would never have won against the master. Given a more steady pace I reckon he’d be sneak a place and the ante-post 25/1 looks good now. He travelled really well today although emptying late on after the furious pace he’d been sent off at.
Spot on Boz, I would say that by some distance Dynaste was the 2nd best horse in that race and there is virtually nothing else in the division. If you knew he wasn’t going novice chasing then 25/1 each way is a very good bet