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my letter to the trainer last year
Philip Hobbs
Sandhill Racing Stables
Bilbrook
Minehead
Somerset
TA24 6HADear Philip
RE: Captain Chris
I am a humble punter with a keen interest in NH Racing. After reading your comments on Captain Chris after Cheltenham and Punchestown it seem that the plan for Captain Chris next season is undecided.
Speaking purely through my pocket I believe you have the winners of the 2 mile Champion Chase: — Here’s why:
Arkle Chase winners have won 6 of the last 10 Champion Chases.
Albeit carrying 3 pounds less Captain Chris won the Arkle in a time over 3 seconds faster than Sizing Europe won the Champion Chase and the ground was good in both races.
Looking at the possible opposition in next years 2 mile Champion Chase:
Sizing Europe/Big Zeb: will be aged 10/11 respectively next year and likely to be past their best and you have the beating of them on time anyway.
Finians Rainbow, Realt Dubh, Ghiozao,Medermit: You beat them comfortably at Cheltenham, no reason why you can’t confirm the form.
Noble Prince: More likely to go for the Ryanair
Masterminded: Paul Nicholls intends to campaign him over 2.5 miles and further.
The 2 mile Champion Chase looks your for the taking, whereas the Ryanair is less prestigious, worth less but looks harder to win with Masterminded, Noble Prince and your own Wishful Thinking possible opposition. The King George and Gold Cup look at the mercy of Long Run for the next 2 or 3 years.
Surely the fact that he only got going 1f out in the Haldon Gold Cup tells you that he’s not a 2-miler.
That quote from DJ after the King George saying he wants a quickly run 2 miles is not one I’ve heard, seen or read elsewhere.
Nicholls has said Al Ferof’s target is still the Arkle. QM entry precautionary should something happen to Sizing Europe and/or Big Zeb.
Like his stablemate Menorah, Captain Chris’s jumping technique is too poor for him to win anything at the Festival.
He tends to guess at some of his fences – very lucky to clear the 2nd at Kempton where he took off outside the wings. In general he lands on all 4 feet losing impulsion.
I know Richard Johnson has been a top jock for many years but he seldom seems to inspire confidence in a horse at obstacles. I’d like to see what his figures are compared to his peers if ‘not fluent’ ‘mistake’, ‘blunder’ were fed into a dbase.
It was hard to tell at the end of the KG if he stayed as he was close to running on empty having gone a bit in snatches as he did – much more noticeably – at Exeter. That he does run in snatches is likely, imo, to be linked to the energy output required by his jumping technique.
A change of jock might make a considerable difference to him – much more so than replacing SWC on LR.
Like his stablemate Menorah, Captain Chris’s jumping technique is too poor for him to win anything at the Festival.
.Like his stablemate Menorah, Captain Chris’s jumping technique is too poor for him to win anything at the Festival.
.Past times, I’m afraid. On current jumping form, neither will win in March. I think their best chance of a winner lies in what will probably be their biggest priced runner, Wishfull Thinking.
Surely the fact that he only got going 1f out in the Haldon Gold Cup tells you that he’s not a 2-miler.
.Not sure it is Zark’…he was on and off the bridle a number of times at Exeter and it was his class rather than running to form that pulled him through near the end.
His form last season before February was frankly very puzzling and moderate, twice beaten conclusively by the ordinary Ghizao it was only the spring sunshine that seemed to rejuvinate him.
Being familiar with his profile I think his runs this year at Exeter and Kempton have been much more encouraging than normal.
He is clearly not a 2 miler that travels and cruises but there have been quite a few top two milers with his run style…Viking Flagship being the epitome of the type.The more I look at this race, the more I can not see Finians Rainbow not being there fighting out the finish, coming up the hill.
JJM, Finian’s Rainbow fought at Kempton like nobodies business. He is though, clearly, not good enough for a Queen Marm.
It’s the only race at the festival that I’d be massively be surprised at if the principals weren’t involved. Sizing Europe has to win, and Big Zeb has to be there or thereabouts.
Al Ferof is clearly the wild card. I can’t decide with him. He beat Hurricane Fly’s time at the festival last year, and that’s huge credit. The Fly is a superstar and it was a strong race. I’ve got an ante-post bet on him for the Arkle so I’m hoping he’s not entered, however, if he is, he has a big yet undecided chance.
I hope to bits Al Ferof runs in the Arkle because I reckon he’s far too good for the opposition and I obviously have a vested interest, however, I believe if he’s there he has a shout. Big Zeb is old but is a quality horse, but he can’t win a Queen Mother. It looks to me like Sizing Europe has to show up in form and it’s his, no qualms. Seriously though, who has doubts???
Boz, completely agree and was delighted to read Nicholls’ comments earlier saying that Al Ferof’s CC entry was purely precationary.
All over Al Ferof in the Arkle & Sizing Europe by far my most confident selection. More concerned by Oscar Whisky to Big Buck’s than anything else to Sizing Europe.
Boz, completely agree and was delighted to read Nicholls’ comments earlier saying that Al Ferof’s CC entry was purely precationary.
All over Al Ferof in the Arkle & Sizing Europe by far my most confident selection. More concerned by Oscar Whisky to Big Buck’s than anything else to Sizing Europe.
I sincerely hope it’s Arkle not Queen Mother mate, here’s hoping
I’m a little baffled by that statement, Boz. I agree with JJM, completely disagree that there’s enough evidence to suggest he doesn’t have enough class. I was amazed by the ability he showed to win last time out.
However, the same thing happened at Kempton last month as it did at Warwick in February. The moment he got swamped and surrounded by other horses, he put in poor jumps. Think he lacks concentration when he’s not leading and with Sizing Europe, a horse who races very prominently, if not from the front, and Big Zeb, a horse who’s now 11, losing speed and therefore likely to be ridden with more vigour, I’d be concerned about his jumping holding up. You just cannot afford a single mistake in the Queen Mum. Just think back to the past 8 or so runnings – Big Zeb, Kauto Star, Well Chief and Moscow Flyer all fell or unseated. The latter trio all short-priced favourites. Azertyuiop stumbled badly at the water jump, did well to finish 3rd. Master Minded did well to stay on his feet last year.
Can you think of any Arkle winners who made a mistake? Twist Magic, Don’t Push It, Mad Max, Tatenen, Thisthatandtother…
Just takes one.
Personally I believe Finians Rainbow’s jumping will be found out at the top table! Not one I could back at Cheltenham for any race at all despite being a very good and nice horse.
Al Ferof looks to have the Arkle made for him with the pace always furious, Ruby will be sitting in behind Peddlers Cross after Sprinter Sacre has cried enough and then the battle to the line will begin
As for the QMCC it will be Sizing Europe and Big Zeb fighting it out again with Sizing regaining his crown with a high priced runner getting third
OMG the days are being counted off far too slowly for me
I’m a little baffled by that statement, Boz. I agree with JJM, completely disagree that there’s enough evidence to suggest he doesn’t have enough class. I was amazed by the ability he showed to win last time out.
I don’t really think too highly of the horse as you may well have gathered. He wasn’t highly rated over hurdles which I know, doesn’t automatically negate a good chaser, but it does generally lead a good trend line. His jumping is sketchy at best, and looking at what he’s faced since he’s been over the bigger obstacles, I wouldn’t really say he’s excelled.
I must agree however, that I was mighty impressed with the way he got up at Kempton. Looked a lost cause.
Personally think you’re being very harsh on a horse who’s been beaten only 3 times in 11 starts. Horses don’t win that many if they don’t possess some quality.
He’s clearly had problems because he was a latecomer to the game. 7yos very rarely run in the Neptunes. 8yos rarely run in the Arkle. His first second-season of anything has come when he’s 9.
7yos have a dire record in the Neptune, as do Nicky Henderson runners. Despite that he finished 5th in a pretty decent race. He was beaten in heavy ground at Newbury in the Challow – and I don’t think you can hold any defeats in heavy ground against any horse.
Then ran in the Arkle as an 8yo and beaten by potentially a Gold Cup winner.
Personally think the horse deserves a lot more credit than he’s being given.
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