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Bos’…would you rule out today’s second as an Arkle winner on this evidence? The Racing Post has in its results section. I agree the winner looked really game but the Arkle has been ruled out for him, apparently.
The pair were 36 lengths clear, a remarkable margin given the trip, and I can only have Breedsbreeze (may have other targets) and Tatenen as in the same league currently. They bought Free World to try to win the Arkle and there are few other alternatives. 20/1 looks far too big now.Yes Bos’… Master Minded will probably never quite reach Moscow in my eyes…even if he managed to win Wimbledon, the Open Golf and Eurovision. Seriously though…its almost impossible for a horse to reach legendary status without an almost equal champion as a contempory and Master Minded may suffer a bit on that score.
Moscow was particularly lucky in that he took over from a fine Champion in Flagship Uberalles had to prove himself superior to brilliant Azertyuiop and then had to fight off the precocious but established Well Chief when he was 11.
Best Mate’s reputation is suffering somewhat as the lack of a fitting adversory makes his achievements a bit more difficult to quantify. The loss of Jair Du Cochet was particularly tragic.
Hopefully something may materlialise to help guage MM, Petit Robin looks the only unknown threat out there. I would be confident also that Tidal Bay would run much better in the QM than today but probably won’t get the chance.Easily the most difficult category. Henry, RP and NA all travelled widely and encountered a variety of conditions in which to test their mettle. Zarkava discounted on this score. RP just nudges Henry as his profile was rising as the season progressed. But NA just gets it, despite his wonderful trainer embarrasing himself a couple of times, he had a variety of challenges, looked as stong in October as he had in May and his Derby victory was dramatic and brilliantly executed.
There is something very special about staying chasers who carry top weight to victory in big handicaps, when they turn out to be champions as well they have to be cherished…so it must be Denman.
Why no Nick Luck?
I am no great lover of the Oxbridge type but Luck is probably the best broadcaster on racing I have seen in 30 years of following the sport.
Knowledge, insight, judgement and drama he has the lot and frankly shows up the vast majority of those who currently or previously have made their living in front of the cameras.Hoiles, Hunt and Holt are all excellent and you know you are getting quality with any of the triple HHH group. Hoiles just gets it for me by adding value in other ways also.
With respect to the others I felt that Manning was quite simply perfect at Epsom. With the course, pace and his mount’s temperament all giving him problems to surmount he used his brain and his brawn to overcome each of them. All under the very highest scrutiny. Superb.
Good stuff as usual Bos’ and I hope you enjoyed your day at the Tingle Creek. Takes me back to my single days in London when I missed very few big days at Sandown.
On todays race, it had a slightly strange feel…maybe it was the loose horse, TB’s very poor spell early in the back straight or Twist Magic’s frustrating fall. Smashing effort by the winner and good to see him begin to put together the big race wins his rating suggests.
Can’t agree on your thought that Tidal Bay would be a Champion two miler in any other year. I couldn’t say for sure he would have been in more than one out of the last ten. Though it has been a golden age, since the turn of the millenium.WL looks to have over a stone to find, not quick enough and not a good enough jumper. Might have a squeak in the 4 miler.
I backed Kasbah last year but he wouldn’t want it too soft, I think.
Not an ante post play for me, espeically not at less than 3/1.Despite a daily effort to remain detached and scientific, so much in this game is emotional. I must confess Master Minded’s lofty rating in last years QM caused more than a little consternation in the shabby household. Having followed Moscow Flyer with a fierce (and rewarded) loyalty since its novice hurdle days I was close to rage when the rating for MM was published. My wife said I was like a kettle boiling over.
My thinking was along these lines…the best novice hurdler in Ireland, able to defeat Istabraq, a glorious novice chasing season, dual Tingle Creek champ, peerless in Ireland, twice Champion Chaser against worthy and stellar champions in Flagship U, Azertyuiop and Well Chief and unbeaten when completing until his dotage…all this and they give this bloody five year old upstart 186 for caning VPU….ffs.I have calmed down a wee bit in the 9 months since and I hope I can appreciate a very good horse but part of me wants that rating to be disproved or for MM’s achievments to be so spectacular even a fan who’s heart is elsewhere to be convinced.
I agree that the RSA is a difficult race to call at the moment but some of the horses mentioned are much better ante post bets than others if thats your thing (it is mine).
There are basically two populations of horses, one in Ireland and one in England with virtually no collateral chase form, there is quite a bit of hurdle form from last year.
Virtually every Irish horse seems to have two possible targets but Trafford Lad seems the best (ante post) bet as he is currently predominant and looks a more likely RSA candidate. ForPady’ is such an imposing horse physically that I think there is a temptation to assume he will be much better over fences and much better over a trip, that may be the case but maybe he just isn’t as good as TL.
Of the english challengers three standout Breedsbreeze, doubtful stayer for me but his stable has an abundance of riches in the Arkle but the stayers have all been beaten or failed in one way or another so he may end up going for the wrong race imho. The Market Man talented, fragile and given his speed not yet fully committed to the staying trip…not an AP play.
Finally there is Ballyfitz who stands out for me as the ante post bet.
Firstly he has the best actually form in England, it was over course and distance of RSA, he has been committed to the race already, he is a festival winner on the Old Course and he is still available at 14/1.
So a very tough race (hence 12/1 the field) but a stand out ante post prospect for me.Good thread. Always good to see people taking diametrically opposite views from the same information…both visual and verbal. Its what makes the game after all.
Personally speaking I would still side with CV achieving more in his career than HF. Stepping up in trip wouldn’t ‘start alarm bells ringing’ for me…its hardly a radical step for a Bumper Champion.As posted earlier in the thread
1. Slim Pickings
2. Albertas Run
3. Knowhere
4. Big BucksI very much like the chances of Noble Alan in this, each way especially. He really impressed at Perth and I thought he was given a very moderate and over confident ride at Cheltenham after that. He has a fair bit to find on ratings but only 3 of the runners are miles ahead and there are clearly question marks on some at the sharp end of the market. He looks to be improving quickly to me, the stable are still in fine form and they have had success (win and place) in the race previously at big prices, notably with The French Furze.
Very likeable improving horse, who hopefully is better known to his jockey now. I will take a chance at 40/1 e.w. on the dead eight.