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Aiden seems to have wrapped his 2yos in cotton wool and didn’t seem interested in having the champion 2yo.
Maiden – Tyros – Futurity – National Stks – Jean Luc Lagardere.
Betting without Rock of Gibraltar, that is about as ambitious a campaign as Aidan would have for a 2yo and given Gleneagles is also unbeaten (FPTP) he strikes as a very likely winner of the 2000 Guineas.Serious question.
7 or 8 years ago before we had the Albert Bartlett, horses that disappointed in Neptune trials….rather than suggesting they looked good prospects for the 3 miler…how did we describe them?
Can I suggest….slow?For those interested in a match bet Racebets had Kingman 8/11 vs Australia 10/11
If you feel Kingman won’t stay it might appeal, with the O’Brien horse fancied by some people regardless of stamina questions.
Does the O’Brien horse (Australia) really have stamina questions?
Galileo has sired 6 European Guineas winners (Frankel, Roderic O’Connor, Golden Lilac, Nightime, Misty For Me, Magician) and many more placed. That’s a very fair total for any sire at 8f.
In addition Rip Van Winkle, Lush Lashes, Frankel (of course) have added a good number of G1 wins at 3 years or older over 8f.
In addition, its worth remembering that Ouija Board really outstayed her pedigree to stay 12f. A Cape Cross who’s breeding didn’t really scream Oaks before Epsom,
I would reckon about 5 of the last 12 Guineas winners had similar ‘stamina questions’,Whilst Sam is overall the more talented jockey, he himself is still prone to lack of composure in the big races.
Any impartial viewing of the Christmas Hurdle might lead you to think the Nicholls job might have come at least 12 months too early for STD.
Anyway, good luck to both Sam and Daryl next year.If his back hadn’t gone at the second last in Katchit’s Champion Hurdle they would be putting up statues to Sizing Europe all over Ireland & England
Irish Champion Hurdler
Arkle
Irish Arkle
QM Champion Chase
Tingle Creek
Irish Champion Chaser
9 Grade 1s
8 Grade 2s
2 Grade 3sNow that’s a career
Our Conor is a very fine horse, you cannot win a Triumph Hurdle as he did without being one. Jezki’s record and win ratio is also very respectable and indicates a talent well above average.
The truth is, that Hurricane Fly is a phenomenom and the ‘since Istabraq’ suffix when describing his place in firmament really should be dropped immediately.The ‘not as good at Cheltenham’ appendix is also a falsehood. Following his withdrawal from a Doncaster novice chase on Saturday I heard the widely expressed view that Rock On Ruby "loved Cheltenham", well ROR does indeed love Cheltenham but his record there is 2 wins from 6 tries in all races, whereas The Fly is 2 from 3 there (contesting only in the best hurdle race on the planet) but apparently he hasn’t yet proved his affection for Prestbury Park?
One more truth…in the 2013 renewal of the Champion Hurdle, if Ruby (Walsh) had taken a pull going to the 2nd last and made his bid before the last rather than before the straight (he confessed after, he should have done) then he would have won 10 lengths last year and Hurricane Fly would currently be 4/5 to win his third championship.
Sam probably asked the C4 team not to mention the booking.
Highly unlikely, unless you have inside info. You’re giving C4 racing too much credit, Luck as much as admitted they had missed the story in the afternoon.
Why should they or Sam not want to mention it, it was already in the public domain and a good story for Sam.
As has been said Big Mac wouldn’t have missed it.Quite right Big Mac would not have missed that story…whether he would have missed that we are no longer living in 19th century is, however, another matter.
Racegoers and punters may respond with suspicion to runners known to have received steroids up to April, none of which have raced in the past year. However, Robin Mounsey, a spokesman for the British Horseracing Authority, defended the decision to let them race again.
See above post.On the balance of probabilities Encke won an English classic on steroids, it is a crying shame and scandal that due to BHA botched enquiry (deliberate?) that we have not been able to confirm or refute this.
Whilst Lord Windermere could hardly be said to be thrown in on the RSA form. His profile looks to have a big upside.
The usually heavy ground in Ireland in the winter/spring has meant most of the top prospects stick to 20f these days before the RSA and dont see 3 miles over fences till the Wednesday of Cheltenham.
Given LW has ran only once over 24f+ and that was to win his novice championship on g/s ground in the RSA then Newbury’s 26f on similar ground would seem very enticing.
Big upside for me and the natural pick.Ardross was a stayer with the class to place in an Arc and prior to that run he was quite possibly ante-post favourite for the following year’s Gold Cup. Clearly Leading Light isn’t yet in the same class but he has achieved a good deal more at the relative stages of their careers.
Some good points there stilvi and it seems to me that many have got Leading Light totally wrong because he has run over 2 miles. The Queens Vase is in my view an outlier in his form and the distance seriously disadvantaged the horse. Of the first 8 home at Ascot, 7 were held up and only LL chased a strong pace. He did well to win at the Royal meeting.
You need to view Leading Light as a top classic 3yo who has yet to run over 12f…an almost unheard of circumstance at this stage of the season.He should, of course, have run in the King Edward at Ascot but Ballydoyle were still trying to make a stallion of Battle Of Marengo and he got that gig as they probably thought they could win both races.
In my view Leading Light has always been (and always been thought of) as the best 3yo at Ballydoyle this year but was slow to come to hand and then had a small mishap in July. He is a 12f horse who has yet to run at 12f and is arguably bred to be a 10-12f type as his dam won the Hilary Needler, Queen Mary and the Fred Darling before running down the field in Sleeptime’s Guineas.He won the Gallinule over 10f in May and through that race his career links in interestingly to two other stoutly bred Gallinule victors…Ardross and Alleged. Both of whom ran very well (brilliantly in the case of Alleged) in Arcs. Alleged also took in the St Leger before dropping back.
Incidentally a couple of journalists reported that Derek Smith indicated Aidan was pushing for an Arc supplementary entry for Leading Light on the flight over to Doncaster and before the Leger was run. Which if true puts a slightly different light on things.
Looking at the field for Sunday I am not sure how strong the pace will be and Leading Light may be able to get the lead or prominent even from a high draw. This is not a plodding two miler, he has shown plenty of zip at 10f and the pace was slow in the Leger and he sprinted up the straight having been given a perfect ride.
The only issue I have with him as a horse is that he has been slow from the gate in 2 of his 6 starts including last time out. He wouldn’t want to be doing that on Sunday. Mosse is sensible booking as Joseph cant do the weight and Ryan is familiar with ROTW.Also this is a horse with a massive will to win and that will be a huge plus if he can get to the front around the point of the false straight on Sunday. He is a warrior and will be very hard to pass. Of course, his overall form is below Orfevre and Novellist (amongst others) but he is an improving 3yo who, imho, has never yet had his ideal conditions (12f, good/good to soft ground).
Correct to say that not many Queens Vase runners win the Arc but O’Brien is the biggest statsbuster in European racing and he is a man to have on your side.
I am not as confident as I was at Donny obviously but I will be having a tasty each way bet…16/1 is still readily available and in my view that is just the wrong price, there is also a chance that LL and ROTW will be about that price coupled on the machine on the day, given the Japanese and French strength.
I will also be backing Novellist on the machine as he is an admirable creature and could be real value given the shape of the market.
Should be a great race.I think the plan is to move one or two of the big juvenile races to Ascot after a suitable period when feelings are cooler, perhaps another couple of years.
Ascot would like the Dewhurst in particular but the Middle Park would be less controversial or return of the Royal Lodge which looks to have had an uncertain start at Newmarket, looking at the numbers.
Champions day is certainly diminished without a big 2yo race(s).
Dewhurst as the premier 2000 Guineas trial has to stay at HQ though, surely?
Royal Lodge and Fillies mile returning to Ascot probably makes most sense once everyone is used to Ascot’s predominance as the flagship autumn meeting.Orfevre certainly the most talented but I am not sure he is the brightest (or perhaps the luckiest) and keeping his big, silly head in front at the crucial stage in a larger field will be more problematic.
I thought Treve got a very educational ride in the Vermeille with a view to the likely traffic problems of the Arc, which she responded to impressively. The problem with Foy is that it is so unlike the Arc in terms of numbers, pace, draw bias that it is a less useful trial.
Considering also the built-in 3yo bias and I would prefer Treve from yesterday’s trials at this stage.Indeed it does vf, indeed.
Saturday was a very exciting day…I would love to see LL given a chance over 12f, this season or next. I don’t think he is limited to being a ‘Cup’ horse many in the media seem to insist on.
Rarely seen one with such a demonstrable will to win.There is a touch of ‘Ardross’ about Leading Light with his action and refusal to be passed. Interestingly both took in and won the Gallinule (as did Alleged) and I wouldn’t altogether dismiss his chances in the Arc.
Needs to be entered, of course, but I just find it difficult to see many passing this fellow if he can get his head in front in the last half mile.
20/1 available…12s or 14s would be acceptable if supplemented.
Might well press.Some solid but far from outstanding stayers on paper, though the time to judge the Leger winner is usually the following year.
I am very keen on Leading Light, seen it mooted that a drop in trip will be against him but in my view Ascot would not be his course at all and he did very well to win there against the bias of the pace profile. Doncaster’s longer straight will play to his strengths and qualities.
If his jockey (Joseph, I presume) can get his head in front at some point in the last 6 furlongs I don’t think anything will get past him by the line.
5 pt (out of 5) bet for me.This is a fascinating Derby and one worth going a long way to see.
Every year at the end of May there is a lot of talk about a "substandard renewal this year". It was said before Sea The Stars won, before Galileo won, certainly before Shergar won and may even have been muttered before Nijinsky won, though I couldn’t say for certain on the latest of those. The time to judge the strength of the Derby field is not before the race but in 2-3 months time when the middle distance horses have had sufficient opportunities and also competition with their elders.That leads me on to a related point…the most commonly used phrase this year is… ‘Dawn Approach is definitely the best horse in the race and if he stays he wins’. This seems to be accepted without challenge but we dont actually know for certain that it is true. What we know for certain is that Dawn Approach was the best two year old from this field and that he is the best miler. However, the colts that were bred for middle distances have not had the chance to run over 12f as yet at this level, though it is unlikely that DA’s RPR of 141 will be surpassed but it is possible that a colt bred for 12 furlongs could surpass it in time. There is an oppotunity cost at this stage.
This race is at 12f…is DA the best horse at 12f? This cannot be stated as fact.Personally, whilst I was with him in the Guineas I don’t think he will win the Derby. He looks like a miler to me and there are sufficient classy horses with better staying potential to find at least one to beat him, particularly as he will have a big target on his back and strategies will be developed to limit his chances.
Re his sire New Approach, I personally think he won a moderate Derby. He was a very high class horse but all the best 3yos that year were milers (Henrythenavigator & Ravens Pass) and after the Derby his win in the Irish Champion was not strong in form terms and the English Champion only slightly better.
Also New Approach had Galileo as his sire, as opposed to grand sire, and Phone Trick is a worry.
Finally, I don’t see the run style of DA being suited at all to the Derby, despite being told his laid-backed nature will help his cause. He runs like a proper miler to my eye, by that I mean he treats the distance like an extended sprint, with a rising tempo, stretching style. It is wonderful and brilliantly effective at 8f but will not be suited to 12f in my opinion. Sea The Stars, by contrast, was a classic stalk and pounce merchant and helped his cause considerably but, in addition, time proved him to be the best horse at 12f as well as 8f.He is not the only doubtful stayer though and although I backed Battle of Marengo after Christmas I am actually doubtful that he is a very strong stayer now and my confidence has waned. Ocovango looks a doubt also. Chopin looks strong if he is classy enough and Ruler of the World also. I am really looking forward to seeing Mars at 12f on good ground and would be confident of Magician staying but will he be fresh enough?
Anyway, I think it is a fascinating renewal and am really looking forward to it. Sorry for rambling away…whilst having supported him at Newmarket it does feel strange to oppose him at Epsom but in summary I don’t think the favourite will win.
Well Nate Silver was indeed better than the Paddy Power compilers.
Louisville who Silver forecasted as a 7/2 shot before the tournament but were available over here at 6/1 won the whole thing last night beating Michigan 82-76 in high scoring and dramatic game.
The proposition bet at 15/8 was also landed (Silver suggested it was a 4/5 shot) with Louisville winning.
Indiana went out earlier so that bet went down.6pts bet and 19.8pts returned for a tidy profit.
Once again I would recommend ‘The Signal and the Noise’ as a cracking read.
cheers