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I couldn’t win the Derby, so Dawn Approach has no fooking chance
Is he too fast to win a Derby?
Thanks Steve.After a lifetime (70)of racing I am finally learning about the odds.Never was any good at math but you made it clear to me.Thanks again.
Shame Ballydoyle didn’t keep Magician for Epsom.They still would have won the Guineas.They can advertise Galileo as a great sire of milers.
Looks of it Magician looks to be a runner this point, think they must rate Battle Of Marengo really high though, looks a afterthought for Magician but saying that it is only cause he was so good in the Guineas, should look good for him in 1m2f G1s.
Looks of it Magician looks to be a runner this point, think they must rate Battle Of Marengo really high though, looks a afterthought for Magician but saying that it is only cause he was so good in the Guineas, should look good for him in 1m2f G1s.
I reckon leaving Magician in shows how little faith they have in Battle Of Marengo. Surely Joseph will ride Magician if he does go to the race. I know which one I’d pick, given the choice, and I’d be pretty sure Magician would go off second favourite on the day. I would certainly be concerned if I had backed, or were a fan of, Dawn Approach.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If you have backed Magician you may possibly have been given a lifeline but I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to back it now on the basis of second guessing just what Magnier and co are going to do. Even if he goes it will be just seven days after a Classic win and it might be that a fast run mile is exactly what he wants. His presence might also throw a spanner in the works of setting a searching gallop to expose Dawn Approach’s potential stamina weakness.
Aidan seems against it but he said it was up to the lads. Magnier still likes to have a go.I guess he is a swinger in his old age. I like that. They have so many horses, why not?
I will be very surprised, nay amazed, if Magician were to run in the Derby.
Punters seem to disagree with you though. Magician is as low as 4/1 for the race, same price as Battle Of Marengo.
Shaping up like small fields for both races.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well if it runs, I can’t see it winning. In my view it’s a dubious stayer on breeding, and unning only a week after a classic is a tough task.
I recall an air of doubt surrounding New Approach’s ability to go 12 furlong and indeed, he proved to be a 10 furlong horse. For that reason I steered clear of him but class ultimately won over.
This year’s renewal looks weaker than 2008 and try as I might, there is no way around Dawn Approach cementing his place as the stand-out top pick.
He will be too fast for them.
I recall an air of doubt surrounding New Approach’s ability to go 12 furlong and indeed, he proved to be a 10 furlong horse. For that reason I steered clear of him but class ultimately won over.
I remember the doubts about New Approach’s stamina before the race. Then he looked like he blew his chance as he was extremely keen for the first half mile, refusing to drop the bit. He did remarkably well to win and he was obviously head and shoulders above the opposition to get away with it. That he could finish as powerfully as he did given how keen he had been shows he had stamina in abundance imo.
Well he might not look much like the winner but at least I look like getting a run from Mars. I’m not sure I’ve ever had an ante-post Guineas/Derby treble in which all three runners have actually gone to post the following year, so that’s something to cheer at least. Take out a drug scandal (Certify) and I think my three horses would all have run.
….can nobody make even the slightest case for Mars??
Dawn Approach is too classy for his opponents and I don’t think the trip, ground or track will inconvenience him.
Battle of Maringo – Not entirely impressed, or to be more accurate and fair, not entirely open to the idea he 125+ horse. I can envisage him running a solid race but you aren’t left with any remarkable feelings about the horse when you watch it run.
Chopin – Know nothing about him.
Dawn Approach – A spectacular winner of a mediocre Guineas. Without question a horse who compares favourbly with the "average" best 3 yr old cost year on year. Will handle the track, has speed, settles and is vastly superior to the opposition on known evidence. Stamina is somewhat of an issue, but then, we aren’t looking for an improvement of his form here, simply a close replication.
Galileo Rock – Not quick enough.
Libertarian – Not quick enough and concerns over how he handles the track. Cannot entertain the idea of him being good enough.
Magician – Very impressive last time out, but concerns over quick reappearance (assuming he runs) and distance are legitimate. Gets 10F, but it’s an unusual route to take and you couldn’t be confident the Derby is the type of race that suits the horse. Still, he’s clearly an extremely talented colt and probably the only horse in the race who i think can challenge the favourite if they both stay.
Mars – Credible run in the Guineas and likely to improve for the step up/experience. Clearly isn’t the #1 contender from stable and has significant improvement to find if he is to challenge Dawn Approach. We can expect some improvement, but he has to improve a lot. I don’t see it.
Ocovango – Little opinion on the horse right now.
Ruler of the World – Staying type who fits the typical O’brien candidate who fill run into a minor place, but ultimately isn’t good enough.
Overall, quite a disappointing field once again. No British challengers and question marks over most of the field. Dawn Approach should be able to follow in Camelots footsteps here, but unliked the forementioned, Dawn Approach was much more impressive in his Guineas. If he stays, he wins. Magician and the French colt (admittedly little knowledge on him) look the main threats.
Really liking the looks of Ocovango if DA
fails to stay
. Magician also impressive, but I have doubts.
I don’t think BOM is anything special, especially looking at his derrinstown trial – wasn’t impressed even though I wanted to be looking at how favoured he is with the Obrians. Could place, but would not take a risk with this.
Magician impressed me a lot in the Irish 2000 guineas, but I am very surprised he has been put in the derby, with a week to recover. IF he recovers well, he should be up there and
be able to give DA a run for his money.
However this is doubtful as it is just such a short time between races.
This leaves Ocovango for me who has run well and is 3 from 3. Also, Andre Fabre would not send him over unless he saw something special in him and after following the same route as Pour Moi, could we see Déja Vu?(pardon the french pun) He is also sired from a horse that likes soft ground, and seems to be running well on soft ground. The weather is forecast to rain here over the next few days which could be beneficial to him as well as bad for DA.
I think I will prefer ew on Ocovango than to back DA. Will be interesting to see how Magician copes aswell.
Really hope magician gets a run I got £2 at 85s on betfair lol but my main bet is on Chopin as I have huge respect for German horses abroad. I took the 20s but really not sure on him if the ground is good/firm most German horses prefer softer.
On the day I may seem mad but a shock could happen BOM doesn’t impress me, if DA doesn’t stay and the French n German horse are no good it’s anyones race at a 100/1 I will have a punt on mirsaale by a derby winner and half sister to oaks 2nd meeznah and already a course winner who wants fast ground. Worth a go…
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