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There seems to be little confidence in Battle Of Marengo at the moment. He is out to 6/1, which some may see as a sound each-way bet but it doesn’t inspire faith in the horse. As I have said, if Magician runs, I expect Joseph to jump on him instead. What price will Battle of Marengo be then?
I was/am expecting Ruler Of The World to drop out and was waiting for that to be the case and then backing Libertarian each way. Thinking about it further, I have decided to abandon that idea, as instinct tells me he can’t win it and that the Dante was probably a grim renewal. I’ll probably regret it but looking at his odds now, as low as 12/1 with Stan James, I think he looks rank bad value on the form of his run behind Sugar Boy where he was 8 lengths behind Galileo Rock and that horse is a definite runner now. Galileo Rock is not the speediest animal to ever grace the planet but if the heavens open you never know and what I do know is that this horse is 66/1 for the race with William Hill. To me, there is not enough reason for him to be more than five times the price Libertarian is and he is my sporting each way, at a price, in hope that the rain falls.
Galileo Rock each way 66/1 Billy Hillys.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think you will find Galileo Rock is a good ground horse – every drop of rain lessens his chance.
I think you will find Galileo Rock is a good ground horse – every drop of rain lessens his chance.
You are confusing the trainer’s opinion with the reality on the racecourse. This horse has NEVER won on fast ground. He won his first race on good to soft, hosing in by seven lengths. He also raced on good to soft next time behind Trading Leather and was described as "one paced" in 5th place. His next run was at Sandown on Good ground, which is the fastest he has raced on thus far. The race report states that he could not quicken, before staying on really late in the race. It MAY be that rock hard ground may suit him but there is no evidence to suggest he was any better on good at Sandown compared to his runs on good to soft at two. A race is not always about just the one horse and how it reacts on the surface, it is also about how it affects other runners. My reasoning is that Galileo Rock seems a bit short of tactical pace and normally juice in the ground helps off-set that and it often counts against other horses who have question marks on stamina.
If the trainer thought ground was such a big factor with this horse, it seems odd that he chose to let him race on good to soft when stepping up in class to take on Trading Leather on his second start.
I think he’s a belting price at 66/1 and I don’t give a monkey’s what anyone else thinks about it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I read that Sir Peter O’Sullevan also thinks that The Derby distance will be against Dawn Approach.
Speaking of which…
There is a very interesting and fascinating piece by Sam Walker in the Racing Post regarding Equinome’s equine genetics program.
Seemingly, Dawn Approach has been categorised as possessing the genetic CC type – indicating that he is a " fast, speedy type " who is best suited to distances up to 8 furlongs.
CT types, which included New Approach ( Dawn Approach’s sire ) and co-incidentally Magician, are best suited to distances of 7-12 furlongs.
The most telling factor from their studies is that although 5% of CC types have won beyond a mile, none have won at distances beyond 1 mile 3 furlongs.
Should Dawn Approach win The Derby, he will be defying his genetic type.
Food for thought ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
What is the sample size of this study? How many "CC"’s do they have on record and how many have attempted this distance?
An interesting angle, but an angle that i would need (and very much want ; intersting topic) heavy data on before reaching any conclusions.
Am not concerned with who is a CC or CT type. Find it best to look at the pedigree, make my own assessment of how far pedigree suggests a horse should stay and then before a final decision consider temperament. In my opinion Dawn Approach’s pedigree alone suggested he’d near as definate get 8f, fair chance of getting 10f and outside chance of 12f. However temperament, being seemingly so relaxed means he’s almost certainly get further than pedigree suggests. In my opinion Dawn Approach has now an excellent chance of getting 10f and good (I estimate around 60% chance of staying (not neccessarily winning)) 12f on a sound surface. With an increased test of stamina, strong pace on soft or heavy would place a greater emphasis on stamina, estimate less than 50% on soft, considerably less on heavy.
I may lay part of my 5/2 back if Epsom softens.
Value Is EverythingAm not concerned with who is a CC or CT type. Find it best to look at the pedigree, make my own assessment of how far pedigree suggests a horse should stay and then before a final decision consider temperament. In my opinion Dawn Approach’s pedigree alone suggested he’d near as definate get 8f, fair chance of getting 10f and outside chance of 12f. However temperament, being seemingly so relaxed means he’s almost certainly get further than pedigree suggests. In my opinion Dawn Approach has now an excellent chance of getting 10f and good (I estimate around 60% chance of staying (not neccessarily winning)) 12f on a sound surface. With an increased test of stamina, strong pace on soft or heavy would place a greater emphasis on stamina, estimate less than 50% on soft, considerably less on heavy.
I may lay part of my 5/2 back if Epsom softens.
I find it bizarre you give these arbitary 60% and 50% estimates but dismiss CC/CT etc so quickly. How did you come to this 60% estimate of him staying (and if staying doesn’t incorporate winning, how do you define staying, since a horse can stay a trip but be less effective at it than a shorter trip). Assigning such a specific equity if you will is quite curious.
It’s rash to take much heed of CC/CT etc on the basis of some quick fire stats, but it’s also somewhat ignorant to not want to look into it with great detail and understand it’s importance and use.
If you’ve reached the conclusion of CC etc because you’ve done some heavy research into it, then well done, and please share that information, because it fascinates me. If however you haven’t, may i ask why you’ce consigned such an avenue to the proverbial trash heap when you pride yourself so much on apparent math and statistic assessments.
How many "CC"’s do they have on record?
At a rough guess I would say 10 but "I’m Not In Love" with the theory
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If you’ve reached the conclusion of CC etc because you’ve done some heavy research into it, then well done, and please share that information, because it fascinates me.
Hi J17star, have you seen the interview At The Races did with Jim Bolger after the 2000 Guineas? There’s a brief discussion on genetics where Bolger says he’s reduced the number of TT’s in the yard to 5% form something like 15%. I too find the work Jim Bolger and Dr. Hill have been doing to be fascinating, and the tests have even been extended to NH horses, where unsurprisingly the majority are TTs.
If you’ve reached the conclusion of CC etc because you’ve done some heavy research into it, then well done, and please share that information, because it fascinates me.
Hi J17star, have you seen the interview At The Races did with Jim Bolger after the 2000 Guineas? There’s a brief discussion on genetics where Bolger says he’s reduced the number of TT’s in the yard to 5% form something like 15%. I too find the work Jim Bolger and Dr. Hill have been doing to be fascinating, and the tests have even been extended to NH horses, where unsurprisingly the majority are TTs.
Interesting and thankyou. I will find the interview. I know very little on the topic. I found out about it as recently as "What it takes to be a national winner" on C4 (which frankly was quite a poor show).
How many horses have they tested, how many fit within the criteria these new genetic boundaries supposedly guide us to and what % of the gene types have attempted to race outside of these set distances and how many have won. I would assume the data is out there somewhere, and Mr Bolger and co seem astitute enough that there must be sizeable data.
A slightly more positive note for my hoss from Irish pundit Donn McClean here:
"Mars is the forgotten horse of the race. Promoted to the top of some Derby lists on the back of a maiden win at Dundalk, his sole start last year, the son of – yes you’ve guessed – Galileo ran more than adequately to finish a staying-on sixth in the Guineas on his only subsequent start to date over a trip that would have been far too sharp for him.
As short as 10/1 for the Derby after he won his maiden in July, he appears to be well down the Ballydoyle pecking order at present, but that has never been a barrier to huge Derby runs in the past."
…could just be American Pie in the sky I suppose.
A slightly more positive note for my hoss from Irish pundit Donn McClean here:
"Mars is the forgotten horse of the race. Promoted to the top of some Derby lists on the back of a maiden win at Dundalk, his sole start last year, the son of – yes you’ve guessed – Galileo ran more than adequately to finish a staying-on sixth in the Guineas on his only subsequent start to date over a trip that would have been far too sharp for him.
As short as 10/1 for the Derby after he won his maiden in July, he appears to be well down the Ballydoyle pecking order at present, but that has never been a barrier to huge Derby runs in the past."
…could just be American Pie in the sky I suppose.
I think as much as anything Mars is very short on experience going to Epsom. He is going to find it a lot different to The Guineas and he has a lot of ground to make up on Dawn Approach. How good was the Guineas in any case?
Mars is not the only forgotten horse in the race either. It didn’t seem that long ago that Paddy Power took a view on Ruler Of The World and cut him to 6/1 for Epsom but he is now totally unmentioned and has drifted steadily out in the betting. I would be unsurprised if they pull him out of the race, and IF he runs it would not be a shock to me to see him drift to 20/1 given the vibes this past few weeks.
I would like to be more positive about Mars but I can’t think that their ideal plan was to go to the Guineas without a run and then come straight to Epsom. Still, eleventh hour juggling of runners and the weather may play a part yet and if he’s there on the day there is always a chance he might topple a few of them at least.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The CC/CT/TT is clearly interesting (I wonder if they dig out old Red Rum’s bones if he was a CC or a TT??) but we don’t know the sample size and whether the horses included in the results were of a relative class to those they were racing against.
There is a school of thought that horses can stay any distance and it is only how well they perform at that distance. I subscribe to that view.
Dawn Approach will stay 1m4fs (but will prove better between 8-10fs probably), the question is will something have the class AND the stamina to beat him.
It would seem outside of the two unknowns in the French and German horses that there is nothing with his class (other than Magician, more likely to go to SJP at Ascot?).
Chopin by Santiago a horse I know nothing about but his own race record does not inspire you to think he would breed a Derby winner – the winner of a G2 at Capanelle his best result – clearly they either think the race is poor, they are sporting or the trainer (who is no mug) thinks something of the horse.
Ocovango
looks more interesting coming from a master trainer and having won a race that generally works out well over the course of a season last time. He might be the more interesting one outside of Magician
for an EW play
especially if going description has soft in it. He seems to have gears, a good cruising speed, is well balanced, has a willing attitude and should see the trip out OK. His name sounds better in French!
Is there a chance dawn Approach won’t run if the rain continues?
I have him (5/2) and Magician (8/1 NRNB) backed but judging by Betfair Magician is becoming less likely to run, probably because of the rain. Soft ground would also have to be a worry for dawn Approach, given the legitimate concerns about his stamina.
Battle Of Marengo has done very little wrong, and looked like he had more in the locker in the Derrinstown. Any rain would aid his cause as he looks to have an abundance of stamina and it would be against the favourite. However, he’s short enough at the moment and although I respect his chances I won’t be getting involved at the moment at that price.
I don’t know much about the European challenge. I saw Ocovango’s last race where he won snugly enough but my knowledge of the form is poor at best. He didn’t look anything special but if Fabre is sending him over he has to be respected. Libertarian is the leading British contender, but he wasn’t that far ahead of Indian Chief and there’s probably five or six better than him at Ballydoyle. Mars could well be one of them. The dogs were barking about him before he won his maiden and he ran a respectable race in the Guineas. He doesn’t scream Derby winner to me though.
Which brings me to
Ruler Of The World
. I immediately put him in the notebook after his maiden victory where he made up a lot of ground in the straight and really impressed me. He’s since won well at Chester, looking like a real stayer. In contrast to the likes of Dawn Approach and Magician, the question about this horse is ‘is he quick enough’? Although the response was not immediate at Chester, I liked the way he forged clear in the finish and I’m sucker for horses that respond to pressure. Ballydoyle outsiders have run excellent races in the Derby in recent years and he looks like a reliable option. I find it hard to see him running a bad race. If they decide to use him as a pacemaker so be it, Age Of Aquarius, Golden Sword and At First Sight didn’t run too badly in that capacity, and it might even play to Ruler Of The World’s strengths.
This is a fascinating Derby and one worth going a long way to see.
Every year at the end of May there is a lot of talk about a "substandard renewal this year". It was said before Sea The Stars won, before Galileo won, certainly before Shergar won and may even have been muttered before Nijinsky won, though I couldn’t say for certain on the latest of those. The time to judge the strength of the Derby field is not before the race but in 2-3 months time when the middle distance horses have had sufficient opportunities and also competition with their elders.That leads me on to a related point…the most commonly used phrase this year is… ‘Dawn Approach is definitely the best horse in the race and if he stays he wins’. This seems to be accepted without challenge but we dont actually know for certain that it is true. What we know for certain is that Dawn Approach was the best two year old from this field and that he is the best miler. However, the colts that were bred for middle distances have not had the chance to run over 12f as yet at this level, though it is unlikely that DA’s RPR of 141 will be surpassed but it is possible that a colt bred for 12 furlongs could surpass it in time. There is an oppotunity cost at this stage.
This race is at 12f…is DA the best horse at 12f? This cannot be stated as fact.Personally, whilst I was with him in the Guineas I don’t think he will win the Derby. He looks like a miler to me and there are sufficient classy horses with better staying potential to find at least one to beat him, particularly as he will have a big target on his back and strategies will be developed to limit his chances.
Re his sire New Approach, I personally think he won a moderate Derby. He was a very high class horse but all the best 3yos that year were milers (Henrythenavigator & Ravens Pass) and after the Derby his win in the Irish Champion was not strong in form terms and the English Champion only slightly better.
Also New Approach had Galileo as his sire, as opposed to grand sire, and Phone Trick is a worry.
Finally, I don’t see the run style of DA being suited at all to the Derby, despite being told his laid-backed nature will help his cause. He runs like a proper miler to my eye, by that I mean he treats the distance like an extended sprint, with a rising tempo, stretching style. It is wonderful and brilliantly effective at 8f but will not be suited to 12f in my opinion. Sea The Stars, by contrast, was a classic stalk and pounce merchant and helped his cause considerably but, in addition, time proved him to be the best horse at 12f as well as 8f.He is not the only doubtful stayer though and although I backed Battle of Marengo after Christmas I am actually doubtful that he is a very strong stayer now and my confidence has waned. Ocovango looks a doubt also. Chopin looks strong if he is classy enough and Ruler of the World also. I am really looking forward to seeing Mars at 12f on good ground and would be confident of Magician staying but will he be fresh enough?
Anyway, I think it is a fascinating renewal and am really looking forward to it. Sorry for rambling away…whilst having supported him at Newmarket it does feel strange to oppose him at Epsom but in summary I don’t think the favourite will win.
Battle Of Marengo has done very little wrong, and looked like he had more in the locker in the Derrinstown. Any rain would aid his cause as he looks to have an abundance of stamina and it would be against the favourite. However, he’s short enough at the moment and although I respect his chances I won’t be getting involved at the moment at that price.
Battle of Marengo, sure O’Brien wanted fast ground for him, I think The Derrinstown, I would agree he won easily to my eye, think many people have been fooled into a negative perspective of him due to his laid back manner, a lot of Derby horses have been like that.
Still its going to be hard to beat Dawn Approach isn’t it, seems the most likely winner but I’m not a 1/1 man in a Derby, will chance with BOM. Think its a two horse race if Magician is indeed a non runner.
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