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Shabby, Shack, hope you enjoyed that as much as I did?
Very much so Pants, very much so.
We all have a picture in our head of the kind of horse that prevails in the RSA and the way that this horse goes about his victory.
In my head…the skipping, smooth travelling, twinkle-toes Dynaste does not fit that picture.
His run in last years World Hurdle tends to confirm this impression for me and I think connections have made the right call (if its the Jewson).More anti Hurricane Fly (lay of the meeting) views in the British press again today. Can someone please take me through in a rational way why HF should not be favourite? (about 7/4 looks right in my view).
Here are the main points of criticism against the Mullins runner and my responses, please feel free to rubbish or correct them.1. When he was at Cheltenham last he was comprehensively beaten by Rock On Ruby. I see no reason why he should reverse that form etc……
R1. Surely any balanced review of HF’s form leads to the conclusion that the 2012 Champion Hurdle was not the demonstration of his ability but an outlier in an otherwise almost perfect record. It could be argued that he disappointed nevertheless but an analysis of his preparation gives strong support to the fact he was not in peak shape/condition.
His moderate effort (in victory) at Punchestown afterwards supports a view that he was not himself that spring.2. His actual Champion Hurdle win was a poor renewal, last years was better, he beat nothing.
R2. This is a rewriting of history, in my view, he and Peddlers Cross drew much further clear of the other placed horses than last years winner. In addition whilst Peddlers has undoubtedly disappointed since a close look at his profile on CH day 2011 reveals that he was un unbeaten hurdler, Neptune & Mersey novice winner at both the big Festivals the previous spring. When graduating to senior ranks he then beat the reigning Champion Hurdler in the Fighting Fifth at Newbury and also broke the track record in the Morebattle. In other words he was an unbeaten potential superstar who met his match in HF.3. Hurricane Fly only runs in small field races in Ireland which are uncompetitive.
R3. There may be a grain of truth in this but they are uncompetitive due to HF’s talent. There also seems to be a strong double standard here. The 4 main Champion Hurdle trials races in England this year The Fighting Fifth, The Bula, The Christmas Hurdle & the Contenders Hurdle (Doncaster) had 4,7,7,4 runners. The impression you get from the media over here is that the English based horses are tested in the mettle of big field competitive races whilst HF beats a handful of runners. Well they are not exactly running in the Stewards Cup themselves.4. Hurricane Fly beats the same horses over and over in Ireland.
R4. It is true that Solwhit and then Thousand Stars feature prominently in HF’s race record but the subtext of this charge is that he is conservatively campaigned in comparison to the hardy, fearless English based horses (see above). Looking at the Champion Hurdle field only Binocular and Countrywide Flame have left England since joining their current trainers. Neither has won. Since he joined Willie Mullins, Hurricane Fly has been campaigned in Ireland, England and France winning Graded races in all three territories…he is by far the most ambitiously and courageously campaigned runner in the Champion Hurdle field.5. He may not like Cheltenham (despite winning and placing in Champion Hurdle).
R5. He is 50% at Cheltenham (3rd best win ratio in the field) but that is a very small sample size. Countrywide Flame is 100% and Zarkava 66% but all those wins were on the New Course. Interestingly Rock On Ruby who is variously described as a ‘Cheltenham stalwart’ and ‘loving the place’ has been beaten on the majority of his runs there. 2 wins from 5 runs (40%). ROR does clearly like Cheltenham but there is a selective bias in the analysis of the relative suitability of the course.
Binocular is 1 win from 4 runs at Cheltenham and despite everyone saying he is a spring horse he has a much better win record in the winter months. He has only ever won one race outside the Dec-Feb period.So in summary it comes down to this, how do you rate Hurricane Fly’s chances based on the evidence of his form and profile. Is the 20i2 Champion Hurdle race the epitome of his ability or does his failure there actual demonstrate that that piece of evidence is an outlier, an exception that proves the rule that this is a horse with a better race record than Istrabraq and probably with at least an equal talent.
I take the latter view and hope and think he wins.
Until recently I had always assumed that, at the end of his riding career, Frankie would move ‘upstairs’ within the Godolphin organisation in an ambassadorial or management role. It seemed to make sense with his charm, knowledge, media skills and also his steeliness when required. It promised to be a mutually benefical arrangement and lets face it, in terms of return on investment, Godolphin is an organisation with significant room for improvement.
The last 12 months though have made me think that I have got that all wrong. Whilst it is sensible to develop young talent and have succession plans in place, with their actions (never their words) they seem to have gone out of their way to embarrass Frankie in public, through the riding arrangements and pecking order in important races.
Unless there has already been (pre Camelot) some offence that Frankie is deemed to be guilty of, then the treatment he has received recently is not worthy of his service, contribution or current skills.
In my view, he was (and remains) a huge talent and if anything his PR skills have distratced from his standing as a jockey rather than illuminated them. Make no mistake, he is a colossal figure in British racing in the last 30 years.With the potential upside to Coolmore breeding revenues via a Camelot victory on Sunday and the ‘zero sum’ nature of the Godolphin Vs Coolmore operations…then Mr Dettori’s decision to take the ride in the Arc is most probably a suicide note on his Godolphin career and it is likely indicates that Godolphin management had already communicated their future plans or Frankie had drawn the unavoidable and barely concealed inevitability.
I love an ante post bet but I think the Arc is particularly difficult in that regard due to the late confirmation on draw and ground.
The draw is what it is and overcoming a high draw is very difficult but not impossible.The ground is a little more complicated, I happened to be working in Paris in Sept/Oct 2003 and I can categorically state there was no (or very little) rain in the capital for two weeks before the race. We went to Longchamp on the Saturday and Sunday and I was astonished to find that the ground was heavy (due to watering), officially ‘holding’.
Before the big race I was informed by a local turfiste that this was to help local hope Dalakhani at the expense of the favourite High Chaparral. The local expert also told me that you could predict the going at Longchamp each Arc day based on the preferred condition for the top French horse. Fair enough its a home game.
Anyway Dalakhani duly won with High Chaparral bogged down in third. The time was 2:32:30.
The following year the top French hopes were Bago and Valixir, neither was massively fancied (about 10/1) and both of whom were arguably better on good ground. Bago won on good ground. The time was 2:25:00.Looking at the make up of the field I would predict good ground at Longchamp on Arc day.
On Orfevre, I was impressed by him in the Prix Foy but were the tactics employed the best to prepare him for the Arc? Team tactics figured strongly in the Foy with his pace maker moving off the rail to allow him through. He would need exceptional luck to repeat that trick in a 20 runner Arc. Wouldn`t it have been more educational to have him come through or round the small field in the Prix Foy?
Thinking about it…there has been a lot of talk about how well Danedream was ridden last year and how sitting close to the pace saw her (and Shareta) advantaged over So You Think, Sarafina, Snow Fairy, SNA etc who came from well back. I think we may well see a very fast early pace this year as jockeys (with last year in their mind) strive for an early prominent position. This could mean a pace collapse and see Snow Fairy and St Nicholas Abbey helped over many.
Well Camelot didn’t win…and he won’t be regarded as a great horse. Unless he goes on to win an Arc at 3 or 4.
If he had won he would have been so regarded…thats why they have a winning post right at the end.
He wasn’t good enough to overcome the race conditions and another was better, fair enough. This Triple Crown business is no pushover.One interesting point that struck me was the debate about Joseph O’Brien going up the inner, it was particularly pointed as today is the running of the Prix Foy.
Lasts years Prix Foy saw the subsequent Arc favourite Sarafina take on 3 rivals. She seemed to travel well but came into Longchamp’s straight last in the field about 4 lengths behind the leader. She could have gone outside but instead Christophe Lemaire brought her between St Nicholas Abbey and Hiruno D’Amour. She slithered through a tiny gap and looked to beat Hiruno D’Amour cheekily by short neck. The ride got almost universal praise and she went on to start favourite for the Arc.
Interestingly, one jockey, I think it was Soumillon (who rode SNA), disagreed. Immediately after the Foy he commented that it was telling that she went inside and between horses when the natural move was to the outer. He remarked that jockeys go inside or down to the rail because they know they have very little left and he quickly dismissed her chances for the Arc.
She finished 7th three weeks later, though the 2011 has subsequently proved to be very deep.Anyway the point is that horses naturally go to the rail when tired and possessing less than expected and jockeys are aware and often sense and facilitate this.
On O’Brien’s talent as a jockey, I would say he is a good bit more talented than most but makes the kind and number of mistakes you will see in a young pilot.
Also, related to this for those (and there are many) who have been very critical of the ride O’Brien gave St Nicholas Abbey in the King George, last years Prix Foy offers a different perspective.
The comparison with Frankel is somewhat distracting to the possibility of a Triple Crown winner, which in my mind is worth more than many group ones, but that is only in my mind not a statement of fact.
Camelot has not won the Triple Crown yet, he may or may not, but I do think the reaction to the size of task any 3yo faces in attempting it is seriously underestimated in the racing press and in general comment. Whats required?A Triple Crown winner must come to hand early, he must have a constitution that can overcome a European winter and be precocious enough to be fit and competitive against his contempories very early in the season (late April/early May).
He must have the speed to beat the best milers over 8f, on a straight course, when many of those horses have this as their only legitimate classic target. The straight course part is important, there are no bends to slow the runners down nor short straights to provide a natural start to the sprint for home. Fields may split (he may be lucky/well ridden and be in the right group or he may not)and he has to be able to manouvere at high speed. Athleticism, physicality and tactical speed.
Four weeks later he is asked to handle Epsom, long uphill pull to start, downhill on a left hand turn, adverse camber, long drive up the straight into a funnel of 80,000 spectators. Against him will be a group of horses who often, from across Europe, have been bred specifically for this 12 furlong contest in suburban Surrey. Who’s owners and breeders imagined little else than this test and this opportunity. Speed, balance, class and stamina
Then he has to stay fit, usually he will have one or two races between Epsom and Doncaster before arriving in Yorkshire to meet the last leg that is the St Leger. One or two other things are present…expectation for one and therefore the nerves and potential for rashness when the biggest prizes are so close. Also a Triple Crwon aspirant will have a big target on his back, you can be sure that tactics for all other participants will concentrate on getting him beat. The long Doncaster straight is surely longest for connections of a triple crown runner. Versatility, Robustness and Endurance
So not only must he be versatile, talented and robust within himself he must be better than the best of 3 other populations of horses at 8f,12f and 14f+ . Remember he doesnt travel to Doncaster to spar with the same horses he met at Newmarket many of those are long since specialists at other trips, retired, injured or sold. The St Leger opponents are not obliged to target all the races and can stick to their speciality. I am exaggerating for effect but there is something of the boxing booth fighter taking on a fresh challenge every time the bell rings, about him.
Its a remarkable achievement if a colt can master it and frankly from my point of view no amount of focus on the recent, heavily endowed, end of season 10 furlong contests can diminish this.
We have waited 42 years to even have peek at it. 42 long years…I was eight when Nijinsky ran at Doncaster and I knew (thanks to my father) that this was a very special day.
I am very excited about Saturday and I hope Camelot wins, I am truly puzzled by those that feel he won’t deserve much acclaim if he triumphs or is undeserving of his place in the history of the sport if he is successful.
Have his critics really thought hard about why it is so rare or what is required to succeed?Updates in bold
TUESDAY
Supreme Tetlami 20/1 3pts
Arkle Peddlers Cross 8/1 2pts
Champion Hdle No bet yet, not enough information.
XCountry Scotsirish 4/1 2ptsJLT Chase Zarrafakt 12/1 2pts
Nov H’Cap Bless The Wings 10/1 2ptsWEDNESDAY
NH Chase Teaforthree 20/1 1pt
Neptune Fingal Bay 8/1 2ptsSous Les Cieux 10/1 1pt
RSA Chase Bobsworth 13/2 1pt
Last Instalment 12/1 1ptFirst Lieutenant 7/1 1pt
QM Captain Chris 10/1 2pts
Captain Chris 16/1 1ptTHURSDAY
Ryanair Grans Crus 55 1ptSir Des Champs 2pts 7/1
FRIDAY
Gold Cup Quito DLR 25/1 1pt
Quel Esprit 50/1 1ptTriumph Grumeti 2pts 8/1
AB Hrdle Sea Of Thunder 2pts 10/1
County H Ted Spread 1pt 10/1
Hunters My Flora 14/1 2 ptsGood effort from Long Run..his 3 efforts this year have shown he maintains his ability and now returns to the scene of his best ever performance.
No certainty but a solid favourite for the Gold Cup.That was very impressive…so classy.
Would have liked to see him make one mistake before the Arkle but thats just nit picking.
I like Quel Esprit, as much for the glint in Willie’s eye as anything else.
Sometimes its the ‘soft’ factors that can give an edge over ratings, times and trends.
Not always but sometimes.
Grumeti has a very fine chance for a 10/1 shot…when he fell at Newbury he ran the others so much into the ground that the rags came through to catch them. His ride at Cheltenham was neither one thing or another…close to a fast pace but then waiting to commit when the leaders folded rather than pressing his strength on the New course.
10/1 has to be taken given the paucity of opposition.As a Tetlami fan I was encouraged by Simonsig’s Kelso performance…a good one for a promising novice but not enough to believe him to be a threat in the Supreme and therefore the chance of Barry Geraghty being on Tetlami has improved, I should say.
Barry is not above moving a few chairs around a bit to improve the comfort of the room, so to speak. And has a bit of previous, most recently suggesting to NH that Sprinter Sacre take in the Game Spirit rather than the (subsequently abandoned) Kingmaker at Warwick.
I imagine he would not be averse to riding Simonsig in the Neptune and Tetlami in the Supreme.Personally I took it as a negative. Concerns me that they’re thinking of putting a horse into the Supreme who potentially will be better over a longer trip. Why would they do that if they had a good 2m novice at home?
But nobody thinks that much of Tetlami anyway, hence 16/1.
When you think you see something others don’t…you act accordingly. It wouldn’t be the first time I have gotten a handle on a horse sharper than its trainer (opposite also true mind).
However, I do think the Henderson camp are coming round to Tetlami as their number one and a good horse in his own right…there are few signs out there to be read. The way he was ridden in the jumpers bumper being one amongst others.I am with you here Zarks. If he keeped a relentless gallop up and carried on going away or maintained a huge gap like a true monster i would be more encouraged with him. As it happened the gap closed rapidly which, although a bit of winding down was alarming. kempton is a significantly easier 3m to cheltenham.
There is more than one way to win a race. Grands Crus Kempton performance was notable for his big mid-race move…which was reminiscint of Kicking King winning his first King George or Dubai Millenium at Royal Ascot.
Having said all that I am not sure Grands Crus is an out an out stayer, despite his World Hurdle run last year. The race I would like to have seen him tackle was the Ryanair which the Pipe’s used to farm in its previous (far less valuable) incarnation as the Cathcart.As a Tetlami fan I was encouraged by Simonsig’s Kelso performance…a good one for a promising novice but not enough to believe him to be a threat in the Supreme and therefore the chance of Barry Geraghty being on Tetlami has improved, I should say.
Barry is not above moving a few chairs around a bit to improve the comfort of the room, so to speak. And has a bit of previous, most recently suggesting to NH that Sprinter Sacre take in the Game Spirit rather than the (subsequently abandoned) Kingmaker at Warwick.
I imagine he would not be averse to riding Simonsig in the Neptune and Tetlami in the Supreme.Tetlami’s price remains surprising big given that he has good form, Cheltenham form, is in good hands and has proven his wellbeing.
16/1 readily available…I would confidently predict that Vulcanite will never get by him for a start and he looks a very decent novice himself.
Simonsig as favourite is another puzzler for me…never tested over the minimum, ex-pointer and looked like a big, empty box when Fingal Bay got rolling at Sandown.
I am still hoping for Geraghty for Tetlami so Simonsig probably needs to disappoint a bit tomorrow at Kelso….the Morebattle should be interesting as he has a bit to do on figures. However 18f and a monumental run-in on sticky ground probably won’t tell us much (positive) about his his chance in the Supreme.
