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Heres my view on the last 12 months for Kauto, its opinion not fact and others opinions may be more accurate but its what I truly believe to be the case;
Dec 07 KG Was as good as ever, stunning win.
Feb 08 Ascot Was as good as ever, his time was almost off the scale. One of best 3 in last 6 years (on my ratings).
Mar 08 GC Was almost as good as ever, may (not definetly) have been feeling the effects of stunning Ascot performance. Was got at it by a top notch stayer, jumping went and then faded on run in after a brave rally.
Apr 08 Aint’ Was as good as ever, only got beat by his ‘on tilt’ jockey trying to prove to the world he could win like Denman by 10 lengths. Took it up at halfway, then again 3 out, tried to win by a wide margin. Got chinned. Ridden normally would have beaten an in form rival by 4-6 lengths (imho).
Nov 08 DR Looked as good as ever, but as some wise judges (not me) pointed out was never threatened by fancied rivals and beating Light On the Broom by 11 lengths was not proof of anything much and this might count against him when in a proper race.
Nov 08 Hay’ Struggling and possibly/probably beaten when falling against inferior horses.
Again only opinion, but he is a french bred horse and they usually just don’t hang around that long, he has actually already had remarkable longevity and showed great fortitude for one of his breed. I am certain we have seen the best of him, he might be able to winner another big one in certain circumstamces but my head tells me not.
Bosranic
The "high class specialist 2 miler that Kauto Star gave an easy lead" has a best RPR of 170 over that distance, KS has one of 179!
No matter what kind of spin you try to put on it, KS is not the same horse he was before last season’s Gold Cup. In that race he was being ridden at halfway (Against out-and-out stayers, after less than 2m, which he had proven so good at previously) . In his 2 proper races since he has made jumping errors he previously shrugged off easily, and been beaten by horses rated 10lb/12lb/ & 22lb inferior.
The horse has a problem – just how much evidence do you need?
I don’t think I’ve ever referred to Tamarinbleu as a ‘specialist’, but he is a high class horse. Apologies if I have used the term ‘specialist’ in a previous post.
I’m not going to continue repeating myself, my views have been expressed and I stand by them until proven otherwise.
What kind of problem do you think he has, Reet? Mental, physical? Is the ‘problem’ a decline in his ability?
The King George is five weeks away. It’s a race that Kauto has won by eight and eleven lengths respectively in the last two years, the second of which was one of the most impressive performances by a chaser I’ve seen in my 17 years following the sport.
Many people appear to think he does have a problem. You believe that Kauto isn’t the same horse he was before the Gold Cup. That was about eight months ago, right?
Let’s say that Kauto puts in another stellar performance at Kempton. I suppose these problems he’s had for eight months (some might say since Ascot in February, actually) have miraculously disappeared in five weeks? Problems that connections, who said that he was as good as ever before the race, have failed to notice in the last eight / nine months.
Of course, this is all speculation, but the same questions of Kauto were being posed last year and the horse answered them in spectacular fashion.
If Kauto fails to shine at his beloved Kempton, it doesn’t mean the horse has a problem. Sadly, we will be bidding farewell to one of the greatest chasers in history because he isn’t the force of old.
That’s the race that will reveal all. For now, it’s just too soon.
Here you go ladies & gents, here’s my screen print to prove I put a poor £1.10 on Snoopy Loopy to win
Sorry I wasnt lying about it Equi 
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v621/danmunn/snoopy.jpg
For the record, I wasnt celebrating that the great Kauto Star fell I was celebrating the shock win for Snoopy.
Can anyone actually explain to me how he was an early morning 50-1 (75.00 on BF)? I honestly dont understand it (mainly because I’m more of a flat man).
Snoopy ran not too far behind Exotic Dancer in the Old Roan and also wasnt far behind Ollie Magern so I’m at a loss as to how he was a 50-1 shot
Anyone care to explain this to me
?I also think KS would have won, he just seemed to stumble and lose his footing, jumped the fence well.
I think he is as good as ever; only time will tell….
Brilliant race though…thought it would be a non-event…but it was anything but!
Zip
Congratulations to connections of Snoopy Loopy and anyone who backed him. He shouldn`t have stood much chance against Exotic Dancer who I thought an even bigger disappointment than Kauto Star as I thought his run at Aintree offerd a lot of encouragement. ED`s jumping often lacks fluency but my suspicion is that he`s not doing it for McCoy
Weird race altogether but what amazes me is the bookmakers reaction isn’t what you would expect after 3 dodgy runs…..As Reet said how much eveidence do you need?
You could get 7/1 Kauto Star the renewal after the Gold Cup but most bookies after this episode go 4/1.on that form he should be 10/1 for the Gold Cup.
He,s only 6/4 for the King George but he was that price before he won first time out.
I suppose their fear is they find the problem and he bounces straight back again.
Too much to ponder all I know is yesterday was a very sad day for racing fans
I reckon he’d have won if he jumped the last, but it would have been hard-fought. The Nicholls team suffering a little dip in form is the best explanation and I too won’t be writing him off.
That’s the one hope that’s left. There has been some horses from the yard who were expected to run well and ran badly without explanation.
I mean wake up lads a 50/1 shot who normally wouldn’t get within 20 lengths of him and we are discussing whether he would have won or not had he stood up?
Let’s hope he had something on him that knocked 2 stone of his best performance and he bounces back in the King George….if he does that 6/4 and probably 7/4 soon will look damn good.
Saying he still would have beat ED doesn’t come anywhere near to explaining such a drastic drop in form
We live in hope
That’s the one hope that’s left. There has been some horses from the yard who were expected to run well and ran badly without explanation.
I mean wake up lads a 50/1 shot who normally wouldn’t get within 20 lengths of him and we are discussing whether he would have won or not had he stood up?
Let’s hope he had something on him that knocked 2 stone of his best performance and he bounces back in the King George….if he does that 6/4 and probably 7/4 soon will look damn good.
Saying he still would have beat ED doesn’t come anywhere near to explaining such a drastic drop in form
We live in hope
Snoopy Loopy wouldn’t normally get within 20L of Exotic Dancer, either. If someone told you that both SL and Tamarinbleu would beat Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer at Haydock, you’d tell them to give up and find a hobby.
After such encouraging seasonal debuts from the market principals, why did they both run below their best? As I’ve alluded to in the GC thread, it’s no coincidence that the two hold-up horses both got beat by inferior opposition.
Those saying that Kauto has a problem or is past his best are overreacting to me. I have yet to see conclusive proof of either and after witnessing the same speculation this time last season, I’ll hold judgment until after Boxing Day.
It’s fair to say that his two best career performances have come at Kempton in the King George, certainly the second of which was his greatest. If he fails to shine on that occasion then the writing is probably on the wall for him.
Not to say that he has to win. Whilst I expect him to have too much class for the ultra tough Voy Por Ustedes, Tidal Bay could be a different proposition all together.
I’m not in the habit of predicting the end of a career. Life experience has taught me that, more often than not, you end up eating your own words. If people want to write Kauto off, saying he’s over the hill and / or has a problem that’s up to them, but until I see solid evidence that he no longer retains a large portion of his ability, I’ll reserve judgment.
Two consecutive posts this early in the morning…I’m on a high after Hatton’s win.
This is from RP online. Seems Paul Nicholls agrees with my theory about Kauto challenging up the inner. Also echoes what I’ve said already about the mistake and the KG.
“He was on the inside and not really happy, whereas at Down Royal he had a lot more room and was tanking along.
“The mistake at the third-last didn’t really help him but that’s racing. The King George is five weeks away and it should be a different story there.”
Thank-You and goodnight…morning.
to blame sam is stupid , i think KS folded when asked for a bit extra hence tipping over, he landed cleanly just overbalanced , exotic dancer should give up he is never going to be a contender at cheltenham.
well done halfway
Can anyone actually explain to me how he was an early morning 50-1 (75.00 on BF)? I honestly dont understand it (mainly because I’m more of a flat man).
Snoopy ran not too far behind Exotic Dancer in the Old Roan and also wasnt far behind Ollie Magern so I’m at a loss as to how he was a 50-1 shot
Anyone care to explain this to me ?
…because if horses were machines, all races had the same shape, were run at the same pace, and all tracks had the same layout then – on the ratings I use – Snoopy Loopy was 17lbs worse off with Exotic Dancer on their Old Roan run, 8lbs worse off with Ollie Magern on their Charlie Hall run, and through various collateral form lines had about 25lbs to find on Kauto Star (if he ran up to scratch)
If life was that simple layers wouldn’t exist, and as it turned out yesterday’s race was rather strange. Firstly the pace was not what could have been expected with OM held up (hated), which unsettled ED who ideally enjoys being held up off a strong pace and KS (ignoring his unseat) underperformed
The market, as is its wont in Grade 1 events, evolved around all the horses ‘running to form’ and with the expectation OM would set a sound pace. The market principals underperformed and two of the ‘rags’ ( Tamarinbleu and SL) ran to what was probably no more than their ‘exposed’ form without improving on it.
You are to be congratulated on going against the crowd and deciding SL was overpriced and betting accordingly, that way profit lies.
For the record I decided KS was way too short and bet ED at ~9/2. Had the pace been as anticipated and ED settled better I actually think he would have picked off the eventual first and second. But that is ‘what if’ and ‘if only’ and there’s no point dwelling on it.
At a slight tangent it has been interesting how aggressively SL has been campaigned recently, which does suggest that trainer Bowen (astute fella) knows he’s got a tough, resolute horse who thrives on competition, is possibly open to further improvement and who’s questionable jumping over the stiffer fences at Wetherby and Aintree would not be so much of a hindrance over Haydock’s new shaving brushes.
Should also add I backed SL on his last two runs but decided he didn’t stand an earthly yesterday. Hey ho.
Can anyone actually explain to me how he was an early morning 50-1 (75.00 on BF)? I honestly dont understand it (mainly because I’m more of a flat man).
Snoopy ran not too far behind Exotic Dancer in the Old Roan and also wasnt far behind Ollie Magern so I’m at a loss as to how he was a 50-1 shot
Because the vast majority of people who bet on racing are obsessed with the ability of horses to carry weight, particularly in steeplechases.
Excellant post Drone, agree with all of that. Wrote something similar ealier. What do you think of my views?
Was that was quite similar to Aintree? Kauto seemed to be going well enough (niggled just before) until making a bad mistake and going from cruising to hard driven. At Haydock, it seems to favour front runners since the alterations (like so many courses). Tamarinbleu and Snoopy Loopy were initially given an easy lead without having to exert themselves much at all.
Can not understand the new tactics of the Twister team. Ollie need to be ridden prominently. That changed the race entirely. Shame Twister has not learnt to give the horse more time between races, best fresh these days.
Cloudy Lane also had no chance the way he was ridden, seemingly ridden for the future.
Did not go fast enough for Exotic Dancer, pulled and did not jump well (not that he is the best of jumpers normally).
Not absolutely certain even Tamarinbleu stayed the trip. I know he has some form at 3m but his very best is over shorter. Did look all over the winner after the last.
Snoopy Loopy is a cracking horse, genuine and as tough as they come. Delighted for connections who deserve a change of luck, after Special Envoy a year ago, McKelvey etc.
I know I said about a stamina doubt with Kauto Star, it is still there but don’t really see this as proof at this stage. Too soon to write off Kauto Star. Although the noseband is a worry. Is it me or does he hold his head a little higher these days? I know Nicholls has put it on a lot of his runners, but I remember when Celtic Swing’s trainer Lady Herries did the same in his classic year. Think it was to stop him idling, thinking he’s done enough.
It was also a bad day for the yard so it could even be the start of a virus. Did win the second last so may be that is a bit strong. Judge that after tomorrow.Fingers crossed the real Kauto emerges from Kempton.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is Everything
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