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The 07 Gold Cup tells you Exotic can chase Kauto"s backside! A lot of folk would be amazed if Exotic beats Kauto on Saturday! I will just be relieved to claw back some of my losses from supporting him loyally!
More heartache for you this Saturday then GW! don’t put too much money on ED!
The 07 Gold Cup tells you Exotic can chase Kauto"s backside! A lot of folk would be amazed if Exotic beats Kauto on Saturday! I will just be relieved to claw back some of my losses from supporting him loyally!
More heartache for you this Saturday then GW! don’t put too much money on ED!
Probably will be more heartache for ED supporters but at current odds ED is a better "investment" (imo).
Mark
Value Is EverythingI certainly hope KS is much bigger odds come saturday. The 2/5 on offer with corals at the moment is rather measly, I think.
But I suppose it’s a case of what price a certainty.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
The 07 Gold Cup tells you Exotic can chase Kauto"s backside! A lot of folk would be amazed if Exotic beats Kauto on Saturday! I will just be relieved to claw back some of my losses from supporting him loyally!
More heartache for you this Saturday then GW! don’t put too much money on ED!
Probably will be more heartache for ED supporters but at current odds ED is a better "investment" (imo).
Mark
I never understand statements like that… Most things are telling you KS will slaughter him yet you’ll back ED because the price is better? Given the number of times they have met and the number Kauto has beaten him I would want 7’s about ED
The 07 Gold Cup tells you Exotic can chase Kauto"s backside! A lot of folk would be amazed if Exotic beats Kauto on Saturday! I will just be relieved to claw back some of my losses from supporting him loyally!
More heartache for you this Saturday then GW! don’t put too much money on ED!
Probably will be more heartache for ED supporters but at current odds ED is a better "investment" (imo).
Mark
I never understand statements like that… Most things are telling you KS will slaughter him yet you’ll back ED because the price is better? Given the number of times they have met and the number Kauto has beaten him I would want 7’s about ED
Aragorn this is where you have to consider the horses’ percentage chance. No bookie is going to give you 7’s about Exotic Dancer in effectively what is a two horse race (?!), if you can find one let me know.
At the prices Exotic Dancer is value given there is no concrete evidence of Kauto being back to his absolute best.
The more rain the more Exotic Dancer would appeal.
There is a sense of deja vu about the Betfair Chase this year
This time last year we were all talking about Kauto Star’s performance in the Old Roan Chase and that he looked to be struggling at one stage and that he wasn’t the same horse he had been the previous season while Exotic Dancer was entitled to come on from his relatively poor run in the same race.
4 weeks later and a soft ground Betfair Chase at Haydock sees KS beat ED by 1/2 length.
I fully respect the whole value approach but KS has now beaten ED on all 7 occasions they have met on a racecourse so I’d love to see how 7/2 can be value in anybody’s eyes – it’s not even an each-way price.
A very simplistic view would say that if ED were to win on Saturday he would have won once from 8 meetings so I would like to at least 7/1 before I would be willing to back him.
David, you saved me typing – Thats exactly the reason why I would want 7’s..
Kauto will hammer them and everyone will be cooing about his performance afterwards imo.
Kauto will hammer them and everyone will be cooing about his performance afterwards imo.
Amen to that!
David,
Looking at the Betfair, can you see any horse beating Exotic Dancer for second if ED runs to form?7/2 is an each way price.
I think ED is highly unlikely to finish out of the first two. Therefore you only lose 12.5p per £ you stake at 7/2. That for me is almost a free win bet.Aragorn,
You need a 22.22% strike rate at 7/2 to break even.
You need a 71.43% strike rate at 2/5 to break even.I do not believe Kauto Star has a better than 71.43% chance so will not back it at 2/5. Given he had far better form than the second in Ireland, had the form to win very easily. Ran comparitively poorly at Aintree and Cheltenham. In my opinion there is still a question mark about whether Kauto is at his very best at 3m +, on very soft going, in a truly run race.
I do believe Exotic Dancer has a better than 22.22% chance so will back it at 7/2. He acts well on soft, stays well, run well at Haydock before, ran really well on his reappearance.
ED’s record against KS only means ED’s chance is likely to be better than his price suggests, as it will put a lot of punters off backing him.
Not saying Ed has a better chance than KS, obviously not.
Mark
Value Is EverythingDavid, you saved me typing – Thats exactly the reason why I would want 7’s..
Kauto will hammer them and everyone will be cooing about his performance afterwards imo.
Quite possible mate but at the prices I’d rather bet Exotic Dancer.
If you’d want 7/1 then Please give me some 11/2 Aragorn / David.Mark
Value Is EverythingBut Ginge – if you think it’s a two horse race, don’t you need to discard the rest of the runners from your calculations (or at least assign a tiny percentage to ‘The Field’), and make your book to 100% with only Kauto Star and ED in it?
What would your figures be under such circumstances? Would it perhaps change your outlook, in terms of the %age chance you give to Kauto Star?
Let’s face it, on all known form, he probably has a better than 72% chance of beating Exotic Dancer in a match. It’s probably around an 80% chance (1/4), which makes Kauto Star pretty good value at 2/5, doesn’t it?
Strike Rate is irrelevant, unless you’re planning on backing a serious 2/5 shots over the coming months. It’s all about the percentage chance you give the pair in this particular race…..and for me, Kauto Star has a better than 72% chance of beating ED in a match.
If you don’t think it’s a match, then how can you say that 7/2 is a playable e/w price?
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It isn’t the same as previous meetings, and for once I agree with Ginger.
Were Kauto Star back to his imperious best, 2/5 would look a decent price, but where is the evidence that he is?
His lto run was no more than you’d expect, even if he ran to the (below par) form of his previous 2 runs, but maybe that’s not good enough?
Exotic Dancer ran a blinding race on his debut, over a distance well short of his best, and I’d have to agree with Jonjo that the horse seems as well as he’s ever been, which isn’t all that far short of KS’s best.
KS needs to be really on his mettle to win this, the jury’s still out on that, but no way is it reflected in his price.
He’s certainly shorter than he has been for any previous meeting.I seem to recall that KS has regularly been shorter in the ante-post market than on the day – I reckon he’ll go off 4/6 on the day with ED maybe going off 5/2 – at those prices KS is well worth a bet
Gingertipster – what price do you think KS should be if you think 2/5 is too short
But Ginge – if you think it’s a two horse race, don’t you need to discard the rest of the runners from your calculations (or at least assign a tiny percentage to ‘The Field’), and make your book to 100% with only Kauto Star and ED in it?
What would your figures be under such circumstances? Would it perhaps change your outlook, in terms of the %age chance you give to Kauto Star?
Let’s face it, on all known form, he probably has a better than 72% chance of beating Exotic Dancer in a match. It’s probably around an 80% chance (1/4), which makes Kauto Star pretty good value at 2/5, doesn’t it?
Strike Rate is irrelevant, unless you’re planning on backing a serious 2/5 shots over the coming months. It’s all about the percentage chance you give the pair in this particular race…..and for me, Kauto Star has a better than 72% chance of beating ED in a match.
If you don’t think it’s a match, then how can you say that 7/2 is a playable e/w price?
You can never totally discard all the other runners but I do believe all the other runners need to improve considerably to beat Exotic Dancer let alone Kauto Star.
Have not done my workings out yet but I’d say the rest put together would have less than 10% chance of winning. If it is not a match I can’t see the point in making match percentages.
But without working it out properly to 100%, I’d say Kauto Star has roughly a 65% (8/15) chance with Exotic Dancer 27% (11/4) and others together 8%. That may change.
So no I do not believe Kauto has as big a chance as you suggest GH. Why shouldn’t I want to back a horse I believe should be 11/4 at 7/2 each way?
If it were a match though, Kauto would be favoured. Without any other horse running, including the two front runners, the pace would likely be slow. Not putting any pressure on Kauto’s stamina. But unless Ollie and Tamarinbleu (particularly the former) come out it is likely to be a good test. If it is just the latter that runs, Tamarinbleu’s chance would be greater in a slowly run race, so a lot depends on Ollie running.
Value Is EverythingOllie Magern ran last year and the ground was soft and KS still won
True David, but as you can see, I believe Kauto has by far the best chance of winning. Almost 2 1/2 times the chance of Exotic Dancer. I do expect Kauto Star to win on saturday but the prices in my opinion mean Exotic Dancer is a good bet at 7/2.
In those conditions David, ED got as close to KS as he ever has.
And ED ran last year off a poor reappearance, this time he ran well at Aintree.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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