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The 07 Gold Cup tells you Exotic can chase Kauto"s backside! A lot of folk would be amazed if Exotic beats Kauto on Saturday! I will just be relieved to claw back some of my losses from supporting him loyally!
More heartache for you this Saturday then GW! don’t put too much money on ED!
Probably will be more heartache for ED supporters but at current odds ED is a better "investment" (imo).
Mark
I never understand statements like that… Most things are telling you KS will slaughter him yet you’ll back ED because the price is better? Given the number of times they have met and the number Kauto has beaten him I would want 7’s about ED
Under normal circumstances I would agree ith you 100% but this race is a case of what if.
I know for a certainty Exotic Dancer is 100% for this race and ready to run for his life.
What I don’t know is Kauto Star totally over what was ailing him last season.
He is an amazingly talented individual we all know that. So cantering round against total no hopers in his own time is somethng you would expect him to do.
Until the race is over on Saturday we simply don’t know so the word certainty is not a word I would care to use at this moment.
His best ever perfomace came in the King George when AP said it would take Pegasus to beat him and I would expect a repeat of that….If he is back to his best as PN claims irrespective of course and conditions he will win the Betfair hard held with ease….I truly hope he does.
I wouldn’t bet Kauto but if he does appear at around 4/6 4/7 I would suggest a double with Crack Away Jack who I regard a good thing…2/1 the double or there abouts could be stealing money
Can someone please tell me what was "ailing" Kauto Star last season??
True, he ran below his very best form in the Gold Cup, but he actually ran to about the same mark behind Denman, as he did when winning it the previous year.
And he would have cuffed Our Vic again, if he hadn’t demolished the second last at Aintree. Our Vic is no mug at all over 3m – he’s well capable of a 170 performance on his day – and Kauto Star has only been chinned right on the line.
I see no evidence whatsoever for this theory that there was something "up" with Kauto Star after Ascot last year – and the suggestion that he was below form the entire season is completely without foundation.
He doesn’t have to prove his well-being, because there’s never been anything wrong with it. The run at Down Royal should have confirmed it in the eyes of any remaining doubters.
The thing ailing Kauto last year was Ruby’s stupidity 2 out at Aintree.
IMHO there was nothing wrong with the way Kauto ran at Cheltenham behind Denman, his jumping aside which could be put down to lapses in concentration. He’s had 2 runs at Cheltenham and we remember what happened in the Champion Chase.
Don’t tell anyone Irish but between you and me he won the Chelteham Gold Cup which I hear is run at Cheltenham
Ruby Walsh…."Something was ailing the horse but I have no idea what. He just wasn’t himself nd he could hardly get his feet of the ground" Perhaps he left his race at Ascot I really don’t know"
Perhaps not Ruby’s exact words but damn near what he said.
If you are trying to convince me or someone else that Kauto Star was his usual exhuberent self at Cheltenham then you got me beat….So let’s just say he was fine and say no more about it………..only time will tell when the two meet again.
Grasshopper –
Travelled/jumped very lethargically v Monet’s Garden on reappearance.
Scraped home in the Betfair.
Brilliant in the King George and good at Ascot but then
Lacklustre in the Gold Cup/Betfair Bowl.
A very good season in anyones book but it just wasn’t the Kauto Star we saw the year before – cantering away with Betfairs/Tingle Creeks etc.
Down Royal showed us that hopefully the enthusiasm/verve is still there but he beat nothing so I eagerly await Saturday afternoon, weather permitting.
Kauto wasn’t really sparkling early last season, a bit slow to come to hand didn’t travel well in the Old Roan but ran better at Haydock then was at his scintillating best at Kempton. Kauto then had a "slight injury" before his Ascot run remember. To me he was never quite the same after that. Maybe 90% but he just didn’t have that edge to him.
To be fair PaulCS, there are reasonable explanations for all of those runs with the exception of the Gold Cup (which I don’t think he truly stays).
That is my one worry Friggo does he really stay the Gold Cup distance on Denman but after the last what looked like it was going to be a 3-4 length defeat became a 7 legth defeat and if we are honest at that stage Denman out on his feet was going knowhere.
How much of it was down to what looked like a terrible mistake andwhat was down to the uphill finish can only be guessed at.
His only chance of beating Denman is if he jumps perfectly and travells well like we all know he can. If he were to run to his best and come at Denman between the last two I couldn’t see the big horse coping with him……
I think the faster the ground the better Kauto’s chances in the Gold Cup. Soft ground and its like running 3 miles 5. On good ground the emphasis is that bit more on speed than it is on stamina and it takes less energy to jump.
His only chance of beating Denman is if he jumps perfectly and travells well like we all know he can. If he were to run to his best and come at Denman between the last two I couldn’t see the big horse coping with him……
I agree FoF. I’ve no doubt if they are both travelling well two out then Kauto spanks Denman any day of the week. The problem is Denman runs the finish out of you long before two out! Kauto will have to be at his very best to regain his GC title. I’m still going with Denman right now as I believe the GC race/conditions are tailor made for him but I’d love to see Kauto win it again.
Kauto displayed his wellbeing with a faultless performance at Down Royal.
Any doubts surrounding his abilty / injury concerns were extinguished after that effort.
If a horse is feeling something it won’t travel. If a horse doesn’t travel, it won’t jump. If a horse doesn’t jump, it won’t travel. Regardless of competition, he travelled, jumped and sealed victory without even breaking sweat.
The horse is fine.
As for Kauto Star Vs Exotic Dancer. What’s the score now? 7 – 0? I’ve lost count. Look, if Kauto is at his best and, like I said, Down Royal was a solid indication all is well, he wins.
Trip, ground, wind speed, if the noseband starts itching…it doesn’t matter.
KS is unbeaten over three miles (6 / 6) and loves to get his toe in. The current going is good-soft, so what’s the problem?
Ollie Magern can go off like a monkey with scolded testicles, it won’t change a thing. Kauto stays three miles plus, end of. As I’ve said before, you don’t win a Gold Cup if you don’t stay the distance.
One Man was a prime example of a great three miler who couldn’t last the extra distance of the GC. You need a true stayer to win the GC and Kauto has that little bit of class that pulls him through.
He needs three miles these days. It was a wonderful performance giving 14lbs to Monet’s Garden, an Aintree / distance specialist, over an inadequate trip on his seasonal debut last season. Why did so many consider it to be a poor or ‘lethargic’ effort?
Exotic Dancer got to within 1/2 length of Kauto in the Betfair last season. There’s no doubt in my mind he was slightly flattered by that effort. Sam Thomas gave KS an awful ride that day. He got to the front far too early and the horse idled in front.
Did ED ever look like getting pass Kauto that day? I don’t think so.
Sam Thomas is the only concern. Good jockey, but Kauto and Ruby have a special bond and I hope Sam isn’t so naive this time.
ED is better on a left-handed track, Kauto’s best performances have been on a right-handed track. That gives ED the right to get closer to KS, as he did at Haydock last year and the 2007 Gold Cup, but under any circumstances Kauto has prevailed. Connections have tried every trick in the book to beat The Great One, but have come up short everytime.
I fully expect the same outcome this weekend, provided Sammy doesn’t screw it up.
Now I know that Kauto Star’s very adaptable and that he’ll almost certainly still win, though I’d just like to point out that with Ollie Magern, Tamarinbleu and Snoopy Loopy all still in I’d imagine this race will be run to suit Exotic Dancer down to a tee.
Those horses are only good enough to tow KS and ED along for 2m4f at most, Friggo – same as last year, when Kauto found himself in front half a mile from home. He was a target for ED all the way up the straight……and the Ogden horse still couldn’t go past him.
I’d expect Saturday’s race to pan out more or less identically – with a more or less identical outcome.
As much as I’m not questioning the likely outcome (a Kauto Star win), I’d like to think they won’t set off as quickly as Ollie Magern did last year- you never know, some of them might be dreaming of third place and the BetFair Million!
With Ollie, Tamarinbleu and Snoopy Loopy in the race, they’ll have cut each others throats by half-way!
Kauto displayed his wellbeing with a faultless performance at Down Royal. Wellbeing yes, but has not proven he is as good this season. Is probably as good, but only probably.
Any doubts surrounding his abilty / injury concerns were extinguished after that effort.
If a horse is feeling something it won’t travel. If a horse doesn’t travel, it won’t jump. If a horse doesn’t jump, it won’t travel. Regardless of competition, he travelled, jumped and sealed victory without even breaking sweat. Sometimes when a horse is feeling something it travels well and finds little under pressure. Did not need to come off the bridle last time to win easily without needing to run to form.He probably is over any possible injury, but only probably.
The horse is fine. ProbablyAs for Kauto Star Vs Exotic Dancer. What’s the score now? 7 – 0? I’ve lost count. Look, if Kauto is at his best and, like I said, Down Royal was a solid indication all is well, he wins. Yes, Kauto will probably win but is he value to win?
Trip, ground, wind speed, if the noseband starts itching…it doesn’t matter. Yes it does, it matters whether he is value to win.
KS is unbeaten over three miles (6 / 6) and loves to get his toe in. The current going is good-soft, so what’s the problem? No problem, he just needs to be value to be a good bet.Ollie Magern can go off like a monkey with scolded testicles, it won’t change a thing. Kauto stays three miles plus, end of. As I’ve said before, you don’t win a Gold Cup if you don’t stay the distance. So in a 3m2f race, if the tape goes up and they go the slowest of canters for 2 3/4 miles, does that prove the winner truly stays 3m2f?
One Man was a prime example of a great three miler who couldn’t last the extra distance of the GC. You need a true stayer to win the GC and Kauto has that little bit of class that pulls him through. Horses change their temperament so change their distance requirements.He needs three miles these days. It was a wonderful performance giving 14lbs to Monet’s Garden, an Aintree / distance specialist, over an inadequate trip on his seasonal debut last season. Why did so many consider it to be a poor or ‘lethargic’ effort? Was not the form of the race, it was how he travelled, for a horse with top class 2 mile form he should have travelled better. He proved at Ascot he does not need 3m
Exotic Dancer got to within 1/2 length of Kauto in the Betfair last season. There’s no doubt in my mind he was slightly flattered by that effort. Sam Thomas gave KS an awful ride that day. He got to the front far too early and the horse idled in front. Yes, ED was flattered to get so close, but under similar conditions on Saturday he might (only might) be flattered again. Sam gave KS a similar ride to Walsh.
Did ED ever look like getting pass Kauto that day? I don’t think so. It looked close on the run in.
Sam Thomas is the only concern. Good jockey, but Kauto and Ruby have a special bond and I hope Sam isn’t so naive this time. Yep, blame the jockey if he does not win.
ED is better on a left-handed track, Kauto’s best performances have been on a right-handed track. That gives ED the right to get closer to KS, as he did at Haydock last year and the 2007 Gold Cup, but under any circumstances Kauto has prevailed. Connections have tried every trick in the book to beat The Great One, but have come up short everytime. KS’s best performances have been right handed because they’ve been over a sharp 3m, 2m5f. Coincidence being right handed particularly as he can jump a little left handed.
I fully expect the same outcome this weekend, provided Sammy doesn’t screw it up.
So do I expect Kauto Star to win but at 7/2 Exotic Dancer is (imo) the better bet.
Mark
Value Is EverythingSince this race last year Exotic Dancer hasn’t gotten within 12 lengths of Kauto and I can’t see that changing.
I thought he was impeccable at Down Royal, admittedly he didn’t beat much, but the ease with which he did it, coupled with Nicholl’s effusive comments makes me think he’ll win easily. Hence I will be lumping on.
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