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Almost everyone assumes this is a foregone conclusion.
I believe this is make or break for Kauto Star. When won his only chase this season we found out next to nothing but the fact remains he ran 2 bad races at the backend of last season without any apparant reason.
Jonjo has Exotic Dancer in the best form of his life and if Kauto has gone backwards he is going to be exposed here.
I hope he shows us he is as good as ever and does to Exotic Dancer what he did to him in the King George. If he can do that, then and only then will I believe he is back to his best.
It’s well and find PN saying he’s never seen him loooking so well but he talks some dribble/sh*t (Grasshopper taught me that
) at times and I reckon they will be pretty nervous about the race this coming week.Fist, I fail to see how finishing 7L second to the best Gold Cup winner of the last 15 years or so, and getting beat a nose in a G1 after a serious error, constitutes "two bad runs". Kauto has nothing to prove, in the context of who he meets at Kempton – and on all available evidence, everything else that goes for the race needs to improve significantly to give him any kind of trouble.
I’d agree that Kauto wasn’t at his absolute best late on last season but I’d hardly call either of his last two runs "bad". He’s a victim of his own success as everyone expects brilliance from him every single time he steps onto a race track.
I’d agree with Fist though in as much as we don’t know whether Kauto is back to his brilliant best, his reappearance told us nothing in reality and words are cheap whoever they come from.
On all known form Kauto wins the Betfair Chase with ease but I agree with FoF; this is crunch time. Kauto’s first run of the season was impressive from a fitness perspective but he beat nothing so this is a good test for him. I still expect him to win comfortably though
In the absence of Ruby (may he get better soon) I’m assuming that Sam Thomas is on Kauto for this race?
Exotic Dancer looked back to some sort of form at Aintree and it’ll be interesting to see if he can serve it up to Kauto Star. I think this race could be closer than a lot of people think.
Our Vic goes very well fresh but Pipe’s have not been running well but he did have a winner today.
Can’t see Mouse travelling War Of Attrition over for this. I’d say he’s much more likely to go to the Durkan. Hope Kicking King shows some of his old spark here. He just goes out like a light when he comes under any sort of pressure. Sad to see him running the way he does now because he was very classy at his peak.
Think Davy said he would be going to Liverpool for the Beecher along with Operation Houdini but there might have been a change of plan in the meantime.
Fist, I fail to see how finishing 7L second to the best Gold Cup winner of the last 15 years or so, and getting beat a nose in a G1 after a serious error, constitutes "two bad runs". Kauto has nothing to prove, in the context of who he meets at Kempton – and on all available evidence, everything else that goes for the race needs to improve significantly to give him any kind of trouble.
I just felt he was nover travelling in either race G and when you consider what he did to OV in the King George I think bad by his standards is as good a word as any.
On all known form he only needs to turn up but if he turns up like he did at Aintree ED will more than likely beat him.
I think he will destroy ED and go on and win both the King George amnd the Gold Cup but it doesn’t change the fact good horses can go to ordinary horses in a short space of time if something is ailing them.
I never presume anythiong in this game seen too many disappointments for that.
Who would have thought a good horse like Kicking King would be running the way he is these days? One minute brilliant next minute near on useless.
Not quite sure how you’ve come to the conclusion that Exotic Dancer is in ‘the form of his life’ based of his run in the Old Roan. Admittedly he hasn’t always fired on his first run of a season, but the form against Knowhere is basically identical to this year’s Gold Cup (beat Knowhere 16 lengths off level weights, then lost by a length giving him 18lbs). The same race that a slightly under par Kauto Star finished over 20 lengths ahead of him.
I know these form lines don’t hold true most of the time but they’re a decent approximation. Had Kauto Star been carrying 11st12 around Aintree last month I’ve no doubt he’d ave cantered in. I’m just not buying it that an on-song Kauto Star could lose to Exotic Dancer. Maybe I’ll be eating huge servings of humble pie come Saturday evening, but as of right now, I don’t think it’s even close!
It is possible for Exotic Dancer to finally land a blow to his old foe this Saturday.
All Jonjo has to do is stick Barry Geraghty back on board as he gave him his best ever ride of last season in the same race.
Kauto looks to have it handed to him, it all depends if Exotic has recovered from his Aintree run where a Kauto had a mear afternoon stroll around Down Royal a few weeks ago.
Having backed Exotic Dancer to beat Kauto Star every time they have met
i am not confident "Twinkle toes" relishes a battle and even if he could get within a neck of Kauto i feel Exotic wont go through with it! Heres hoping!I’d love to see Exotic Dancer win this. He’s one of my favourite horses and the poor bugger always comes up against Kauto Star. He’d have won countless big races if Kauto hadn’t been around.
Can he do it this time? Well logic says he won’t but he ran a belter on his reappearance which is unlike him and we still don’t have concrete evidence that Kauto is right back to his very best. There is hope.
evidence that Kauto is right back to his very best. There is hope.
Surely as a racing fan you’d want to see Kauto Star back to his best?
Well yes you’re right I would. Just that I’d love to see Exotic Dancer win a big race as he really deserves it.
There is likely to be a lot of pace on with Ollie Magern and Tamarinbleu in the line-up.
Will be more of a test for Kauto Star than his recent romp in Ireland anyway, which will be good to see.
Let’s hope that Exotic Dancer can find some of his old form and put a below-par season behind him.
I agree with Fists,
They were "comparatively" bad performances on Kauto’s two runs in the Spring. Ireland proved little other than he looks happy, and therefore probably capable of running somewhere near his best. I would not takle long odds on though particularly on softt / heavy ground. the more stamina is at a premium the more likely he is to lose.
Considering the weight carried by Exotic Dancer at Aintree do think he is somewhere near his best. Think ED each way might be the bet if 100/30 or bigger.
Mark
Value Is EverythingCan someone tell me is this the only course that ED will get close to KS or does it matter where they run??
) at times and I reckon they will be pretty nervous about the race this coming week.
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