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Kauto Star is a very good jumper everywhere else bar the home straight. There must surely be a reason for this.
Could it be he hears the roar of the crowd and gets distracted?
If so, would ear plugs be the answer?
I know Exotic Dancer seemed to be transformed by them.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingI toyed with the idea of backing Snoopy Loopy for third, as he looked the only one of the apparent also-rans who was ready to run the race of his life. So, my question is why did the stewards pull Bowen in yesterday to explain his "improved form", when win the race for third was all he effectively did? If it was to explain his improved form since February (when he won a handicap off 108), then fair enough but it smacked of a PR exercise otherwise.
agree with all of that. Wrote something similar ealier. What do you think of my views?
I think in this instance we’re chanting roughly the same mantra Gingernuts
Your views; matters not what others think; matters not if you’re interpretation of a lone race is ‘right or wrong’; long-term bottom line the sole arbiter
As may be obvious by my rare visits to this neck of the woods I’m generally not too keen on immersing myself in circuitous debates on form and fallout, though I’m the first to admit they’re the lifeblood of racing fora
a-tissue a-tissue most fall down
agree with all of that. Wrote something similar ealier. What do you think of my views?
I think in this instance we’re chanting roughly the same mantra Gingernuts
Your views; matters not what others think; matters not if you’re interpretation of a lone race is ‘right or wrong’; long-term bottom line the sole arbiter
As may be obvious by my rare visits to this neck of the woods I’m generally not too keen on immersing myself in circuitous debates on form and fallout, though I’m the first to admit they’re the lifeblood of racing fora
a-tissue a-tissue most fall down
Have you an interpreter Drone?
Mark
Value Is EverythingThis quote from PN is an absolute cracker…does he ever think before he speaks? "It was a muddling sort of race and he has got beat, but he was always going to get beat one day and Kempton on King George day is another race.
Excuse me Mr N and please don’t have a heart attck when I tell you this but Kauto has now lost 3 of his last 4 races…..keep taking the tablets and get well soon
On a serious note I just manged to see the race as I am out of town at the moment. I a somewhat less worried than I was although some of you might disageree with my theory of why.
First off Sam Thomas did absolutely nothing wrong…Kauto was lovely and relaxed. Perhaps a bit too relaxed but that may have been down to his condition I reckon…..I have seen him a bit more would up in his races in the past and it may well be PN let him down a tad too much.
Only a couple of weeks ago he said he was in the best condition he had ever seen him at a early stage of the season. With that in mind I think it is perfectly possible PN decided to easy on him and misjudged it. Perhaps even that is unfair as he would have won but for the error at the third last and may even have scraped home had he stood up.
It would fall in with what happened in last years race when ED got as close as he ever got in the same race. Come Kempton Kauto either improved a stone and a half or he simply wasn’t fit at Haydock…..I suspect it was a bit of both. Whatever he absolutely destroyed ED and in a common canter at that.
That 6/4 might just be the best bet of the centuary after all and having had a think about it I now understand why the bookies haven’t went silly for the Gold Cup………..I’m prepared to lose a right few quid and give Kauto one more chance….But PN? I’ll reserve my judgement on him until his next interview
Kauto as many have pointed out was going well enough
ED was ridden totally differently and (in retrospect) all wrong in last years KG. That is why there was such a big turn around from the Betfair.
It was worth trying though as KS kept beating him when held up.
I think ED is proving a bit of a red herring here, its KS proximity to the others (Cloudy Lane would have been involved also if his jockey hadn’t been giving him an easy one) that is the worry.
6/4 is not at all tempting.Top interview with Paul Nicholls on BBC this afternoon.
To Rishi’s response that some people think the horse isn’t as good as last season, he replied “Absolute Bull****!”
Fair play to the bloke and fair play to the BBC for not responding with the “We apologize……” speech. The man spoke his mind and has every right to attack those suggesting such nonsense.
Fist, he beat established horses to impressively claim the King George and Commercial Chase. He ran a stormer in the Gold Cup, given the conditions and, despite having a hard race at Cheltenham, PN popped him out three weeks later at Aintree and the horse was cruising to victory before belting the second last.
Haydock was the first real disappointing effort I’ve seen from the horse since…ever.
PN mentioned that it was a muddling race, as I have. The proximity of Snoopy Loopy and Tamarinbleu to both KS and ED is one thing. Are we to believe that both horses have a problem despite encouraging seasonal debuts, or are both in decline? A bit convenient don’t you think?
The other piece of evidence is that in a six runner race over three miles, the first three (four if Kauto hadn’t unseated) were seperated by less than three lengths.
I’ve criticized the ride of Sam Thomas and he was the only reservation I had before the race. Not because ST is a poor jockey, but because Ruby knows the horse so well. I don’t think Sam should’ve gone up the inside and his lack of chemistry with the horse was evident as I’ve stated numerous times in this thread.
Here’s two quotes from PN to support my opinions.
“He was on the inside and not really happy, whereas at Down Royal he had a lot more room and was tanking along.
“It was very difficult for Sam, as he had only ridden the horse once before. Denman is a more straightforward horse and he faced an incredibly hard job on Kauto. Ruby knows the horse well and he’ll hopefully be back for the King George.”
Paul Nicholls has worked with the horse everyday for the last four years, yet some ‘experts’, watching from the comfort of their living room, know the horse better. I’m not too sure if that’s ignorance or naivety.
Until the horse disappoints at Kempton, a race where he’s both impressed and answered his critics before, I think it’s premature to say he’s finished and utter drivel to insist he has a problem, despite experienced connections saying he’s as good as ever.
As I said earlier, until the horse disappoints at his beloved Kempton on Boxing Day, I’ll reserve judgment.
Thanks for that Bos’… didn’t see the interview.
Interesting, what was Paul’s explanation as to why the horse is just as good this season?Thanks for that Bos’… didn’t see the interview.
Interesting, what was Paul’s explanation as to why the horse is just as good this season?Rishi didn’t dare ask that question! PN would’ve slugged him one if he did.
He was one angry, large man. You could tell by how red he was! No, wait a minute, that may just have been the weather or the few extra pounds he’s carrying.
Seriously, apart from the ‘BS’ comment, he basically said that it’s easy to look back on things and say you’d do them differently. He also mentioned that Ruby has ridden the horse ‘seventeen or eighteen times’ (16) compared to Sam, who had only ridden the horse once before yesterday.
The two quotes from my previous post were pasted from RP online.
I don’t blame Sam because the horse obviously just wasn’t at his best yesterday but the BBC showed a good head-on angle today and why was he heading for the wing of the third last until the very last second?
And we know the horse seems to have a few funny traits in the jumping department so the last thing you want to be doing is giving out any more mixed messages and switching him inside/outside that much did that IMO. Its just typical of the sport though that he can get away with some howlers at the last fence in his races and then eventually come to grief when he jumps the fence perfectly ok!
As for the horse, what do people think about the right handed/left handed argument?
The way I see it, when he runs right-handed he wins (and wins comfortably as well), whereas he seems to scrape home/get beat when he goes the other way. You could even apply this theory during his great year when he scraped home at Newbury and then was workmanlike at Cheltenham.
Yet PN thinks he’s better left-handed so what are other peoples views on it?
In my humble opinion, i believe Exotic dancer travels like a horse, who if he were a pushbike would have a buckled front wheel and the riders handlebars are creating a severe shaking sensation in the steering, which ultimately causes fatigue. I know he travels like that during the course of every race he has run in, but yesterday he seemed to do it for almost the whole race, until he came under pressure, when as usual he doesn"t find a great deal.I believe this is why he ran a stone below par, but he cant be relied upon unfortunately! Kauto star defineately ran a stone and a half below his best, as for why. I Haven"t got a clue, other than i think he would have beaten Tamarinbleu, but still got caught by Snoopy loopys late flourish.Pretty close contest then! This is one race where the form is best forgotten. The quicker the better!
We went to a nh preview a few years ago and Dan Skelton said at the time that Kauto Star was better going left handed….I still can’t make out what exactly happened at the third last fence yesterday, although it didn’t look as bad from the side angle as it did from the front..however, as someone who has never been as overwhelmed by Kauto Star as a lot of people have I was amazed at how he lost very little momentum after the third last and still didn’t go down at the last [although I think UR is a bit harsh on Sam]….he’s certainly the most enigmatic horse I’ve ever come across and perhaps his trainer and jockeys think the same. I really want him to win the King George this year.
Bos,
Having seen the head on today I can see your point, why you think what you do. Sam did have the horse on the rail just before the fence.
But why?
Kauto was travelling supremely well when taking the fence before; in the centre immediately behind Tamarinbleu (who also took the fence in the centre). Therefore, Sam had to decide does he go on the inner or outer of the leader? As you have said in the past, KS sometimes idles and therefore is better with another horse to race with. Had he gone outside it may have taken him away from his rival. It was the percentage thing to do to challenge up the inner. However, he did not know that Tamarinbleu would wander left handed, so only just giving Kauto Star enough room to clear the fence. I believe we saw Sam realise this when he pushed KS for a few strides to ensure a passage. There was enough room but on this occasion Kauto chose to jump left handed and bank the fence.Therefore without the benefit of hindsight Sam chose the best option.
As to the RH / LH question, if Kempton was a stiff, undulating (but still right handed) 3m2f, and Cheltenham were a sharp, flat (but still left handed) 3m. I think the two records would be reversed. ie I do not think the way round is the significant feature.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingIt was a tricky sort of race, Ollie being restrained instead and Tamarinbleu doing part of a tough gallop.
Sams only real mistake was going up the inner after 4 out when he should have kept him straight on then maybe he would not of made that error at the final ditch.
Something must be up though at Paul Nichols’ yard though, No Cheltenham winners in the OOM races and only a 2m Hcap Chase the winner at Haydock.
If he has a bad week at Newbury then you would have to consider going against Master Minded at Sandown in the Tingle Creek.
- Total Posts 17716
Top interview with Paul Nicholls on BBC this afternoon.
To Rishi’s response that some people think the horse isn’t as good as last season, he replied “Absolute Bull****!”
Fair play to the bloke and fair play to the BBC for not responding with the “We apologize……” speech. The man spoke his mind and has every right to attack those suggesting such nonsense.
Fist, he beat established horses to impressively claim the King George and Commercial Chase. He ran a stormer in the Gold Cup, given the conditions and, despite having a hard race at Cheltenham, PN popped him out three weeks later at Aintree and the horse was cruising to victory before belting the second last.
Haydock was the first real disappointing effort I’ve seen from the horse since…ever.
PN mentioned that it was a muddling race, as I have. The proximity of Snoopy Loopy and Tamarinbleu to both KS and ED is one thing. Are we to believe that both horses have a problem despite encouraging seasonal debuts, or are both in decline? A bit convenient don’t you think?
The other piece of evidence is that in a six runner race over three miles, the first three (four if Kauto hadn’t unseated) were seperated by less than three lengths.
I’ve criticized the ride of Sam Thomas and he was the only reservation I had before the race. Not because ST is a poor jockey, but because Ruby knows the horse so well. I don’t think Sam should’ve gone up the inside and his lack of chemistry with the horse was evident as I’ve stated numerous times in this thread.
Here’s two quotes from PN to support my opinions.
“He was on the inside and not really happy, whereas at Down Royal he had a lot more room and was tanking along.
“It was very difficult for Sam, as he had only ridden the horse once before. Denman is a more straightforward horse and he faced an incredibly hard job on Kauto. Ruby knows the horse well and he’ll hopefully be back for the King George.”
Paul Nicholls has worked with the horse everyday for the last four years, yet some ‘experts’, watching from the comfort of their living room, know the horse better. I’m not too sure if that’s ignorance or naivety.
Until the horse disappoints at Kempton, a race where he’s both impressed and answered his critics before, I think it’s premature to say he’s finished and utter drivel to insist he has a problem, despite experienced connections saying he’s as good as ever.
As I said earlier, until the horse disappoints at his beloved Kempton on Boxing Day, I’ll reserve judgment.
Would this be the same Paul Nicholls?
From The Sporting Life website
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls was typically philosophical following Kauto Star’s defeat, adding: “I was never really happy with him today and he was never really travelling.
I was in the unsaddling enclosure in a blizzard at Dortmund when the race was run, but went to the betting hall (shows all British and French racing)once I’d finished. Christian was there, and he told me that Kauto had fallen at the last. He hadn’t seen the race either, but when we asked people if he would had won, the opinion was pretty split. However, I’ve just seen the race, and I think he would have. OK, Snoopy Loopy has come with a right rattle to collar Tamarinbleu, but I reckon although Sam was pretty busy on Kauto, he’d have got up to win it.
I mentioned on another thread that Kauto does seem to get low at the odd fence. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back from this fall, and the proof will be in the King George pudding I guess. I know they’re mentioning about taking Denman over to France, I’m just wondering if they should do the same with Kauto – the softer fences might suit him down to the ground.
Darren – AngloGerman
________________________________________‘The Hungarian’s going hell for leather’ – Jim McGrath
Bos,
As to the RH / LH question, if Kempton was a stiff, undulating (but still right handed) 3m2f, and Cheltenham were a sharp, flat (but still left handed) 3m. I think the two records would be reversed. ie I do not think the way round is the significant feature.Mark
The Ginger PreacherPredictably I would have to disagree with you there. Aintree is flat and sharpish yet KS is 1 win from three runs there whereas Sandown could be classed as stiff and he is two from 2 there albeit both times over 2 miles. Going right handed he hasn’t remotely looked like getting beaten yet going the other way round he is 7 from 12. Exotic Dancer can’t get near him going right handed yet left handed he got within 1/2 length in last years Betfair, 2 1/2 lengths (would have been closer with a clearer run) in the 2006 Gold Cup and wouldn’t have been too far away last Saturday. How connections think he is best going left handed baffles me, maybe its because all the rest are worse running right handed.
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