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Since this race last year Exotic Dancer hasn’t gotten within 12 lengths of Kauto and I can’t see that changing.
I thought he was impeccable at Down Royal, admittedly he didn’t beat much, but the ease with which he did it, coupled with Nicholl’s effusive comments makes me think he’ll win easily. Hence I will be lumping on.
ED was not in the same form after the Betfair last year. Stable had a rotten year.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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Exotic Dancer ran as well as could be expected, considering the tactical blooper, in the KG.
As both his trainer and his jockey admitted afterwards, they made too much use of him in an attempt to unsettle Kauto Star, as they couldn’t see any other way to beat him. I know, because it cost him 2nd place, and me what had previously been a regular and entirely predictable forecast.
Kauto being best righthanded has suddenly seemed to have been established as fact but I dont think there is much evidence of it myself.
To my eye, and on some ratings, his best ever performance was in the Betfair two years ago. I was there that day and it was about the most impressive steeplechase performance I have seen in 20 years, certainly at 3 miles. His Gold Cup performance in 08 was amongst his best and his 07 Gold Cup was not too shabby (given he looked to have a fair bit in hand).
He got beaten at Aintree last season due to his normally excellent and reliable jockey being temporarily unbalanced mentally after the Gold Cup reverse. All of the above left handed.
Kauto has already reached the age when I normally stop backing French breds, though he might be an exception. Down Royal proved very little about his ability in top company I dont see any overall downturn in his known ability since the King George last year.Ginge,
If you put One Man in Kauto’s Gold Cup he still wouldn’t have got up the hill.
Kauto stays 3m 2f, no problem. It speaks volumes when Paul Nicholls considered him for the bet365 Gold Cup.
Big difference between Aintree and Ascot last season. KS was making his seasonal bow at Aintree and he wasn’t giving Monet’s Garden 14lbs at Ascot. MG is also a far better horse at Aintree.
His trainer has stated he needs three miles these days. I think the big man knows him better than anyone.
Kauto Star hit the front way too soon at Haydock last season and he was idling in front. Not the greatest of rides from a very talented jockey.
Some people think Ollie Magern’s presence will make a difference. Wasn’t OM in The Betfair last year, employing similar tactics? Didn’t make a difference then, did it?
I don’t analyse races from a financial standpoint, Ginge. Value means nothing to me in this race. I’ll just watch and enjoy.
Tamarinbleu has plenty to find, but has an outstanding record fresh, especially seasonal reappearance. I also thinhe’ll relish the additional distance. I’ll back him reasonably for a place, a small win in case KS makes mistakes, along with a KS / Tam RFC and enjoy the race.
Totally agree Shabby, his 1st Betfair win was something else, incredible how he quickened away completely on the bridle to win by about 20L. We didn’t even know if he’d stay that day either as it was his first try at 3m.
And PN has stated that the horse is in such good form this year that he believes he’d win the Tingle Creek if Master Minded wasn’t around!
Kauto being best righthanded has suddenly seemed to have been established as fact but I dont think there is much evidence of it myself.
To my eye, and on some ratings, his best ever performance was in the Betfair two years ago. I was there that day and it was about the most impressive steeplechase performance I have seen in 20 years, certainly at 3 miles. His Gold Cup performance in 08 was amongst his best and his 07 Gold Cup was not too shabby (given he looked to have a fair bit in hand).
He got beaten at Aintree last season due to his normally excellent and reliable jockey being temporarily unbalanced mentally after the Gold Cup reverse.Shabby
He didn’t beat a great deal in the Betfair two years ago really. Beef And Salmon never was a good traveller, L’Ami was a fair sort but not top class IMO, Ollie Magern who was 19L behind that day has never got within less than 40 lengths of the winner in all of his Grade 1 chases out of novice company with the exception of his first try at Lingfield, Iris’s Gift was pretty useless over fences and Kingscliff who was capable if in the mood but darn right awful if not. I know he won easily but in hindsight was entitled to. As I’ve mentioned previously I believe he is a 7lb worse horse going left handed and his record to some extent backs this up. I don’t believe he has been beaten going right handed over fences, nor ever looked likely to be beaten, yet has been beaten 6 times the other way round albeit 1 when falling and 1 when remounting. If ever Exotic Dancer is going to beat KS it will be going left handed although as I think ED is overrated I doubt he is capable. With regard to the Betfair chase of the others Tamarinbleu’s rating is 5-7lb too high IMO, Snoopy Loopy is consistent but is ought of his depth, Ollie Magern will do well to get within 40L and that leaves Cloudy Lane who is running for a place I assume for the Betfair bonus. So all in all it will be down yet again to KS vs ED and poor old ED is in a no win situation as if he finally beats KS it will more than likely be reported that KS is no longer the horse he was or didn’t feel right today, a fate met last year particularly by Our Vic at Aintree and to some extent Denman in the Gold Cup.
"Shabby
He didn’t beat a great deal in the Betfair two years ago really. Beef And Salmon never was a good traveller, L’Ami was a fair sort but not top class IMO, Ollie Magern who was 19L behind that day has never got within less than 40 lengths of the winner in all of his Grade 1 chases out of novice company with the exception of his first try at Lingfield, Iris’s Gift was pretty useless over fences and Kingscliff who was capable if in the mood but darn right awful if not. I know he won easily but in hindsight was entitled to."aaron’
Can’t say I heard to many judges at he time saying he was ‘entitled’ to win like that. I was doing speed ratings at that time and along with Kicking Kings 1st KG it was the highest rating I had given. It remains his joint best RPR.
Also a forensic examination of any big race can produce similar results to the ones you list for the ’06 Betfair. For example last years King George,
Our Vic was attempting to win the KG on his reappearance (not done for 20 years), Exotic Dancer’s tactical ride was an admitted disaster by connections, Racing Demon is a non staying headcase, Hi Cloy was 2 stone outclassed and doesnt stay, My Way De Solzen never went a yard the entire season and Taranis broke down fatally. The above race was Kauto’s other joint top RPR!Again I say, why disregard the obvious. Those looking to oppose Kauto Star on this occasion do so more out of hope than expectation. Barring a fall it’s his for the taking.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ginge,
If you put One Man in Kauto’s Gold Cup he still wouldn’t have got up the hill. Probably not no, especially in his latter years.
Kauto stays 3m 2f, no problem. It speaks volumes when Paul Nicholls considered him for the bet365 Gold Cup. Did not consider him for very long though did he?
Big difference between Aintree and Ascot last season. KS was making his seasonal bow at Aintree and he wasn’t giving Monet’s Garden 14lbs at Ascot. MG is also a far better horse at Aintree. Not true, Monets has a good record at Aintree because he has a good record fresh and others are OTT by the spring meeting. His Ascot form is probably just as good as Aintree. KS’s Ascot run was better than the Aintree run.His trainer has stated he needs three miles these days. I think the big man knows him better than anyone. Just because Nicholls thinks something does not mean he is always right. Who did Nicholls think would win the Gold Cup? Rather trust my own eyes / mind.
Kauto Star hit the front way too soon at Haydock last season and he was idling in front. Not the greatest of rides from a very talented jockey. Had KS made a mistake at the last, or idled in the King George, would you say Walsh went too soon there?
Some people think Ollie Magern’s presence will make a difference. Wasn’t OM in The Betfair last year, employing similar tactics? Didn’t make a difference then, did it?[b:3r6r1pcs] Possibly, ED got closer to KS in the Betfair chase than at any other time. It may (I repeat may) not have been a coincidence it was the biggest test of stamina KS faced (until the soft ground Gold Cup). It is not that I do not believe KS will stay, it is just I have a doubt about him truly staying, and that effects the price I am willing to take.[/b:3r6r1pcs]
I don’t analyse races from a financial standpoint, Ginge. Value means nothing to me in this race. I’ll just watch and enjoy.
I will enjoy it whoever wins, whether I have a bet or not. In some ways I hope KS wins. As he is the best horse around at the moment.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAgain I say, why disregard the obvious. Those looking to oppose Kauto Star on this occasion do so more out of hope than expectation. Barring a fall it’s his for the taking.
Why? Am I allowed to say the word? VALUE.
Mark
Value Is EverythingKauto Star – e/w.
Not even I would back each way at that price.
Mark
Value Is EverythingStable had a rotten year.
Mark
Can you be a little more specific?
Jonjo won £621,154 last year, much less than his previous two years and almost half 06/07 season. Second half of the season particularly disappointing and ED (winless) was his only established chaser of a good standard. Alberta’s Run did well in novices but Black Jack Ketchum, Bob Hall, Don’t Push It, Fier Normand, Hasty Prince and Wicheta Lineman all disappointed along with some decent novice hurdle prospects. Butlers Cabin and Retirement were possibly unlucky not to win good races.
Though it is interesting his strike rate was exactly the same as those two previous years. Still not that good though.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAgain I say, why disregard the obvious. Those looking to oppose Kauto Star on this occasion do so more out of hope than expectation. Barring a fall it’s his for the taking.
Why? Am I allowed to say the word? VALUE.
Mark
You are sir, but two times nothing is still … nothing !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ginge,
Haydock Park is a galloping course with a long, slightly uphill run-in. I certainly wouldn’t want a horse like Kauto in front too far out. It’s easy for any horse to idle in front at a track like this.
Kempton Park is sharp track with a fairly short run-in. The ground wasn’t as soft as Haydock and he was produced when absolutely cruising and his rivals already well beaten.
Different tracks. Different conditions. Different circumstances.
Kauto jumps better when ridden fairly handy, but let him go too soon and he will idle in front. He did the same at Aintree (long run-in) last season when just beaten by Old Vic.
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