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An interesting and very open market at present with no horse having really stamped their authority on it just yet. Just thought I would start a thread to get an idea of how everyone sees the market at this point, and to run as the picture becomes clearer and opinions stronger. At the minute there seems to be so many nice horses that nothing could be banked upon, but I think there is scope to get some value bets on.
Starluck 14-1 who currently heads the market is clearly a decent horse, but is essentially a speedster, and I feell that his recent demolition of kings horse Laterly may have been over accenutated by the slow pace in the race. There doesnt look to be a huge amount of value to be had on him at present as a result of that facile win though.
Lethal Weapon 16-1 looked a likely type to win a few early in the seson at least and hard to know how good he is with relevance to the rest of the contenders until he races in established company, but being one of the very first to show some level of ability he was priced on that and with the emergence of horses who have shown better form, his price hasnt changed as it probably should have done.
Hebridean 16-1 As a flat horse for aidan o’brien always looked like a triumph hurdle contender in the making, and his move to paul nicholls yard is certainly encouraging but the bookies have taken no chances with him. Even Celestial Halo started in the market last year at 33s and 25s when he moved to nicholls, however Celestial Halo came in for money prior to his hurdling debut and would expect that if hebridean shows he can jump a hurdle he too will come in for support. I would rather see some support for hebridean before backing him because if he can take to hurdling I would probably make him the No1 contender for Cheltenham, I expect will be best to watch the markets with him over the coming months in advance of a hurdling debut.
Mount Helicon 25-1 The Alan King No1 contender if the markets are to be believed, is due to run this friday at newbury, ahead of which he has recieved a dcent level of support in the triumph market. Would suspect him to be more of a Franchoek type than a Katchit but had much more class as a flat horse than Franchoek, is stoutly bred and is probably a live contender, however Franchoek’s main strength IMO was that he was a front runner, and could set up most of his races to play to his strngths and IMO Montjeu is not famous for front runners. 25-1 is a decent price on this one as in the coming months as the ground gets worse I expect him to shorten significantly in the market. Have had a go on him already but dont know whether to have another point on him, should be an exciting runner on friday but going by the montjeu rule, he is a foilable at a slow pace.
Simarian 25-1 Hard to know whether he was trained to peak on the day of his grade 2 win, but it looked like a decent enough performance to suggest that 25-1 may be a bit big on him. An ex agha kahn horse for john oxx, he is sired by kalanisi, same sire as katchit, looks progressive and has won three of his last four.
Indian Groom 40-1 Won a decent enough looking race over 2m1.5f ealier in the year but has since been beaten in a slower paced 2m race. Should be able to show better form in a more competetive paced race, especially on rougher ground, in which case he should shorten much more than 40-1, I backe dhim at 33s before his recent defeat and think he will show better form before long.
Helium 40-1 Really nicely bred horse of Nick Giffords who threw in a decent performance on his british hurdling debut, looks sure to throw in better performances over the coming months, 40-1 is big on him IMO.
Giorgio Quercus 40-1 Looked a really good horse on his debut for henderson but was sent out again only a week laterly and was beaten by smarian, could be better than that. 40-1 is big on him IMO.
Any other hosres that anyone fancies? No doubt there will be other horses who will emerge as the year goes on but I think it’s nice to have a couple of decent priced fancies at this stage, as if they turn out to be decent then you have some redundancy if you fancy something else more strongly closer to the time.
I got one but I aint telling you cos you’ll tell everyone
Haven’t a clue mate but yours makes interesting reading.
Cheers Bulwark…good read.
I am on Simarian after Open Meeting…worth a pop at 25s.
The race he won has a good record, like you his breeding impresses (dam is half sister to Sinndar) and he looks a staying type. I would think he will be quite a few lengths better on the New Course. Also his record so far will mean a h’cap mark that will probably exclude the Fred Winter.
Looks a decent ante post bet to me.Like what I’ve seen from Lethal Weapon so far, but as you’ve said he hasn’t really beaten anything of note.
I’d say there’s a very good chance that we’ve yet to see the Triumph winner jump a hurdle in public yet.
Mount Helicon has been trimmed in to a biggest 20-1 ahead of his debut now and Paul Nicholls reports on his Teletext slot that Alan King "thinks Mount Helicon is something of a weapon" but he is sending one against him. Interesting juvenile novice race in prospect tomorrow at newbury.
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Starluck was hellishly impressive in beating a potentially useful horse in Laterly, and I can’t believe he won’t be thereabouts (if making it to March of course).
I’d be interested to know if Henrietta Knight is considering sending Somersby to the Festival. Judging by her interview on RUK on Wednesday she’s going to try and control exactly where the horse goes, but hopefully he’ll make the trip to Cheltenham as Racing Demon did under the same ownership.
……………..she’s going to try and control exactly where the horse goes…….
Equitrack, that sentence needed to start with a sardonic "In a radical change of approach…………….".
Starluck is definitely classy but I think he is a bit short at present on the form he has shown in that another win in better company wouldnt see him shorten much further I dont think, will watch that and then decide on him.
Quite surprised that Mount Helicon has been taken back out to 33s with coral, the form of that run wouldf look to be pretty decent, although he has been caught in the dying strides, it was a first run in a class 3 and the field have been strung out all over the place, with nicholls horse who he quite fancied well back in fourth. I may have another go as think King should be able to do something with this one.
Does anyone know any news on Black Jarcari, is this race still part of the plans? I had an ante post bet ages ago.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
No word really on black jacari, but his lack of support in the market from day one has always suggested there may be something better in the yard. The support for Mount Helicon in recent weeks would suggest that he is the most fancied from the stable. Black Jacaris three consecutive seconds in 2 class2s and a class 4 would suggest he may not be a finisher. Its not a beaten bet by any means Nathan, as the three horses who have beaten have all looked to be fair performers, it will be interesting to see if any more progress is made with him in the coming months.
Not given up hope on Black Jacari but he isn’t the most straightforward.
We may well have just come up against some smart performers in the defeats but he lost some of what he was doing at home when on the course and he needs to demonstrate something special to convince Alan he’s worthy
Another run in the next couple of weeks should tell us a little more
Thanks Bulwark and Katchit, i will keep my slip in a safe place then for the moment and keep my fingers crossed for a good run next time out.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I thought Tharawaat was very impressive the other day in Ireland. The second looks like an improving horse and he treated him with utter contempt and won very very easily.
My only worry is will he be as good on faster ground? He ranon good ground on the flat but that was in some poxy race where he finished 3rd so there is no real guide but he’s a decent price at 16/1.
If he wins again as easily and I am sure he will the bookies will no doubt more than half those odds…..
He didn’t look like he would find an awful lot more if pushed but that’s the case with a lot of young hurdlers. I think he looks the type to improve even further and given time will be a high class hurdler.
It’s maybe still a bit early but I’ll be having a little bit of the 16/1 as I think he’s the best of what we have seen so far.
Fancy Helium myself – as short as 16’s with Ladbrokes and very very impressive in winning today. Has form behind a Grade 1 winner over in France and trainer knows what it takes to win at Cheltenham. Think his price will only get shorter prior to Cheltenham and his form today ties in very well with Simarian.
Thought you might take some odds about Helium, Martin, given his French form.
I helped myself to 90 just after the race about Long Run, who gave Helium 7lbs and a 3L beating, before going on to land the Camberceres on the Sunday of the International Jumps Weekend.
I doubt whether Long Run will go anywhere near the Triumph, to be honest, but there’s always a small chance of him getting an entry, or being bought out of Macaire’s yard to race over here. If either happens, he won’t be a 90 chance for long.
I think these foreign horses are always overpriced – even when firms try to duck them they’re still too big.
Waley-Cohen mentioned they’d probably skip the Triumph this year and wait for the meeting at Auteuil in May/June time (there’s a big 4yo hurdle there I think and the program for young French hurdlers is extensive. Think this was the horse that Robert Waley-Cohen said he was going to win a Grand National with though can’t be certain of that.
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