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Starluck is the only ante-post bet I have running in to the race (given Mr Thriller’s absence), but as he looks very much a speed horse I have been searching for a worthy alternative. The market leaders look opposable, despite the conditions appearing likely to play into Zaynar’s hands, and
Tyrrells Wood
is intriguing at a huge price. Terry Mills doesn’t have many runners over hurdles and it’s interesting that he was taken out of the Adonis to run on the flat on the same day, yet still contests a race of this nature.
He’ll do at 66/1.
Concerned about them putting cheekpieces on Zaynar; have any horses won wearing cheekpieces this year? What is this horse of Venetia’s…Stow? Sam Thomas riding and she seems to be running her horses up with the pace. Have had a couple of big priced winners over the years so may try with this one!
Have never been big on walk on from the offset as he has always reminded me of take the breeze and fivedream, on breeding and form profile (they are pretty much identical). IMO like the other two horses, he needs trully soft ground to be at his most dominant, he comes here rated on form where he was on his ideal conditions and those he beat were not. As favorite I couldnt touch him as despite the ground being on the slower side of gd-sft, I dont think it’s slow enough for him.
From the other perspective I think the ground is slow enough that Master Of Arts will struggle to stay. As I think will Jumbo Rio too, I have always had starluvck down as an aintree horse, I wasnt impressed when they pulled him out of the adonis for no good reason and the ground has not come up in his favour for this either.
Zaynar i got on at 25-1, as did a few others and am happy with him, he’s the one they all have to beat.
Ebadiyan looks like a similar horse again. Tharawaat under a patient ride on this ground could potentially improve but wouldnt back him. Lethal Weapon is a bit an enigma, he doesnt move particularly fluently but he just keeps finding enough to keep winning. My only concern with him was that on similar ground at leopardstown at a reasonable pace, he looked to be showing hisstamina limits.
The ones that really interest me (Zaynar aside) at current prices are:
The Mullins Pair Mourad 18-1 and Art Sleuth. Mourad was really well backed for this and looked a likely candidate before being beaten (along with ebadiyan) by jumbo rio, however jumbo rio looks a speedy one so I will give Mourad a second chance as a fast pace in this race should see a different horse and he should stay all day if they go fast. Art Sleuth 50-1 aswell, I backed Timari last time as he had everything up his street when art sleuth did not, but art sleuth came through in an absolute bog and beat him, should be better on this surface and may just be the perfect sort if the pace is average.
Simarian 66-1 has everything his favour this time aswell and could improve greatly on his defeat by walk-on. Also Silk Drum at 40-1 has everything in his favour and could go well.
The Mullins Pair Mourad 18-1 and Art Sleuth. Mourad was really well backed for this and looked a likely candidate before being beaten (along with ebadiyan) by jumbo rio, however jumbo rio looks a speedy one so I will give Mourad a second chance as a fast pace in this race should see a different horse and he should stay all day if they go fast. Art Sleuth 50-1 aswell, I backed Timari last time as he had everything up his street when art sleuth did not, but art sleuth came through in an absolute bog and beat him, should be better on this surface and may just be the perfect sort if the pace is average.
Ruby was quite confident last week that he can turn the Leopardstown form around with Jumbo Rio and Ebadiyan. He said he made far too much use of him and he’ll be produced later here.
I really hope for Oliver Brady that Ebadiyan wins and I will be having a small sentimental bet on him. I’m on Lethal Weapon antepost though and I think he could go close with the ground really starting to come in his favour. His head carriage wouldn’t fill you with confidence and some people wouldn’t be huge fans of the sire but I’m very hopeful that AP will get a good tune out of him and I’ll be disappointed if I don’t at least get a good run for my money.
Great finish there between Walkon and Zaynar.
Well done to Zaynar although i think connections will be pleased with the way Walkon ran.
Ebadiyan didn’t want to know coming round the bend onto the straight, not sure what got the better of him there, but ran out.
I had the second again
What a week if only the objective was to finish runner up.What a strong hand Henderson has for next years Champion hurdle Binocular, Punjabi and now Zaynar.
Walkon definitely surprised me there, he will be interesting next season. Is he due to go chasing or stick to hurdles for a bit?
Starluck IMO ran a cracker there too and he would probably be the one I would take from the race to possibly pick up a few races on better ground next season, but overall I dont think this years novices look quite as special as last years lot.
Wlakon definitely surprised me there, he will be interesting next season. Is he due to go chasing or stick to hurdles for a bit?
I’d imagine he will stay hurdling as a 5-year old.
Regarding Jumbo Rio – cant see him winning at cheltenham one bit, today looked a slow paced race with the first three all finishing looking full of running. Jumbo Rio just looked to have too much speed, but Ebadiyan was coming back at him at the end.
Mourad’s performance was hard to guage, as someone has already said he has been kept fit for a long time with cancelled races etc, and he may have better to show, but ebadiyan would still look to be the one to take out of the race.
Cant remember if it was the same race last year where Won In The Dark went down to personal column.
The juvenile novice performance of the day IMO was definitely Alexander Severus in the 315 Handicap though, and it is well worth a watch as that may well be the triumph winner deadheating for 3rd.
This was the same handicap that Psycho fell in last year before favoritism for the county hurdle, and IMO this could have been a 140 performance from A.S. with a clear run. It would be tragic if they were to go for the county hurdle or the fred winter with him but he now has his three runs to qualify for those races I think.
Am still 100% convinced that they sent Alexander Severus and Jumbo Rio to the wrong races this week, and IMO as a result O’Grady has cost himself a win in the triumph and a probable place in the fred winter.
I don’t see any reason to believe the O’Grady horses ran in the wrong races. Alexander Severus appears to find very little off the bridle. The hill would be a problem for him in any race and it would be no surprise to me if we don’t see him at Cheltenham again. Jumbo Rio appeared to get worked up before the start and consequently I don’t think he ran his race although again I would suspect he would be better on a flat track.
I would strongly disagree stilvi, alexander severus was never going to find anything on the bridle in a slowly run fred winter on a less testing track (on what turned out to be better grounnd). In the same way as Jumbo Rio was never going to get up the hill in a stronger paced race on a more testing track (on what turned out to be worse conditions.
So what happened then was Alexander severus was tapped for toe and beaten by 5.5 lengths in the fred winter and jumbo rio was completely done for stamina and beaten 30 lengths in the triumph. I could see both eventualitys coming a mile off, and it is a shame that NH trainers have not yet clicked with how to campaign montjeu’s yet as this is the first case IMO where it has cost a grade 1 success.
So what happened then was Alexander severus was tapped for toe and beaten by 5.5 lengths in the fred winter and jumbo rio was completely done for stamina and beaten 30 lengths in the triumph. I could see both eventualitys coming a mile off, and it is a shame that NH trainers have not yet clicked with how to campaign montjeu’s yet as this is the first case IMO where it has cost a grade 1 success.
It seems many of your posts are just a big effort to try and give the impression you actually know a little about pedigrees and ground conditions. Little seems to be about right. The idea Alexander Severus was tapped for toe is complete nonsense. Silk Affair and the others stayed on up the hill far better than Alexander Severus who hit the front too soon and found nothing under pressure. If you can’t see that I would give up.
It seems many of your posts are just a big effort to try and give the impression you actually know a little about pedigrees and ground conditions. Little seems to be about right.
Straight Back at you Stilvi, with bells on. My posts are more about trying to find horses that are going to win races. And to do that I find that matching the horse to the trip and ground with relevance to the likely pace is the best way to get decent prices IMO, and with an accurate going description and those methods actually work enough of the time to make money. And I would be quite confident that if I were to use your ideas I would be skint. No offence intended. I would also be quite confident from any discussions we have had that either you either dont use such methods, pay them no heed, or are trying it out and doing terrible at it through bad judgement. Again, no offence intended.
The idea Alexander Severus was tapped for toe is complete nonsense. Silk Affair and the others stayed on up the hill far better than Alexander Severus who hit the front too soon and found nothing under pressure. If you can’t see that I would give up.
I did say long before the fred winter that alexander severus would need a fast pace and could be outsped by quicker horses in the fred winter. I think you could do with rewatching the Fred Winter stilvi and you’ll soon see that Alexander Severus is one pcaed and being left behind by quicker sorts up the run in. If you still think that Alexander Severus was outstayed then I’m not even going to argue it…
Does anyone know how Starluck has come out of the race?
Is the Anniversary Hurdle still an intended target?
Would imagine so Blunkett, havent heard anything about him since the triumph but would imagine he’s OK.
Will be worth checking out come the day of the race regarding prices.
Think Starluck was very impressive at cheltenham, just ran out of puff towards the end, but that shouldnt happen at Aintree (unless possibly if it’s the worse side of good-sft).
However at the same time, Hebridean’s Adonis form would look to have been well and trully franked by Saticon in the Fred Winter, as hebridean just cruised past him at Kempton.
Alan King had a nice horse called Silk Hall which won at the Sandown meeting just before Cheltenham, and he could be one for Aintree.
Didnt think Ski Sunday came out of the Fred Winter too badly either.
I’d say it will all depend on prices on the day which I decide to play, if there isnt much between Hebridean and Starluck though I would probably go on Hebridean though, on the basis that Hebridean beat him a couple of times on the flat and now has some rock solid looking Hurdling form.
What a week if only the objective was to finish runner up.
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