- This topic has 92 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Just assumed he was a 4yo without looking at the card
Interesting to hear that Nicholls is thinking of targeting Hebridean at the Fred Winter. I agree that stamina could be an issue at a track like Cheltenham and that he might be better off waiting for Liverpool.
An interesting juvenile maiden at plumpton which features hendersons EXCAPE, probably the miggest gamble in the triumph picture so far. Only went on gd-fm on the flat and doesnt look an out and out stayer on breeding yet they have been backing him heavily despite already having zaynar heading the betting. Watch and see I think.
- Total Posts 17716
He’ll struggle to win today, let alone challenge for the Triumph. From what I remember he wasn’t the most straight forward horse on the flat and meets a decent soft-ground handicapper in First Avenue, who could be Gary Moore’s Numide for this season.
Starluck has done nothing wrong and won his last race ( albiet against moderate performers ) with real zest and authority. He is worth a sporting bet in my book.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Would give Le Brocquy 28-1 and pour changer 5-2 a good chance against excape today. henederson usually knows what hes doing with his novices though.
Was quite impressed with First Avenue there, think he’ll be better suited to cheltenham conditions. 40-1 looks a decnt price IMO.
First Avenue, who could be Gary Moore’s Numide for this season.
Actually Moore has a german group3 winning 5yo called Persian Storm by Monsun who actually reminds me a lot of numide. Down to run at musselburgh on wednesday, but has been down to run a few times over the last month, all of which have been moved either by N/R or event being cancelled. An interesting horse though IMO but like Numide last year he hasnt had much support for cheltenham.
I haven’t seen the race.
I had a bet on Jumbo Rio a few weeks ago, after looking at the pedigrees of the main contenders.
Why is Jumbo Rio still a bigger price than Ebadiyan, after beating him twice?
I haven’t seen the race.
I had a bet on Jumbo Rio a few weeks ago, after looking at the pedigrees of the main contenders.
Why is Jumbo Rio still a bigger price than Ebadiyan, after beating him twice?
Reckon the thinking is Ebadiyan will stay better up the hill. Judged on todays performance, you wouldnt argue. Still think the 33’s I took on Mourad’s looking good, he’s crying for better ground. Think they only ran him today as a last resort. He’d been entered for 5 or 6 races in the last month or so and was pulled out of every one of them because of the going and abandonments. This was an ideal race to get a run and some decent experience behind him.
Thanks Andrew
I’d previously had a saver on Ebadiyan.
It seems to makes sense that if one has backed one of the three horses, one should have a saver on the other two, so I’ll put a couple of quid on Mourad at some stage.
Gerald
Having just watched the handicap which preceded the hennessy, they have to send alexander severus for the triumph hurdle. I’d make him favorite if he did.
Regarding Jumbo Rio – cant see him winning at cheltenham one bit, today looked a slow paced race with the first three all finishing looking full of running. Jumbo Rio just looked to have too much speed, but Ebadiyan was coming back at him at the end.
Mourad’s performance was hard to guage, as someone has already said he has been kept fit for a long time with cancelled races etc, and he may have better to show, but ebadiyan would still look to be the one to take out of the race.
Cant remember if it was the same race last year where Won In The Dark went down to personal column.
The juvenile novice performance of the day IMO was definitely Alexander Severus in the 315 Handicap though, and it is well worth a watch as that may well be the triumph winner deadheating for 3rd.
This was the same handicap that Psycho fell in last year before favoritism for the county hurdle, and IMO this could have been a 140 performance from A.S. with a clear run. It would be tragic if they were to go for the county hurdle or the fred winter with him but he now has his three runs to qualify for those races I think.
Zaynar form looking stronger and stronger with Walkon, Amore Mio and Stow all boosting it
Coral have opened a book making Alexander Severus 7-1 fav for fred winter. Please send him for the Triumph as he’ll be an e/w banker.
- Total Posts 17716
With Ski Sunday having won again this afternoon, I’ve had another sizeable interest in Mr Thriller at 20/1. The Triumph would seem to be the plan for him now and his Fontwell form is rock solid.
Will be interesting to see where the team send Trenchant now, either the Triumph hurdle or the Fred Winter.
What a progressive horse he has been this season too.
Very strong finish there.
Helium ran a great race there I thought, Backed Hebridean ages ago and IMO it’s pretty much a ripped up slip unless the ground at cheltenham comes up good. I’d make hebriean favorite for Aintree now though, with starluck not far behind.
I did say before today that I thought Helium would be more of a horse for cheltenham than today, and I still think that, if its good to soft and helium doesnt try to make all I think he could go well.
Was impressed with the run from Saticon today, but hard to know what to do with him now, I’d be inclined to say step him up in trip on good ground and he may be in his element, doesnt look to have the speed to deal with the best in this grade on good ground, could be one for the mersey novice hurdle where king sent franchoek last season. There is the possibility that hes been lacking competetion pace in his races and that may have been what brought about the improvement today, so perhaps if he gets ground on the better side of good-sft and a decent pace he may have everything right. The jurys out regarding him. Think he’ll definitely be too high in the Fred Winter now to have any chance though.
Wasn’t all that impressed with Trenchant, when you bear in mind that it was good ground, his only serious opponent was alfie flits. Alfie Flits was taken along too quickly by trying to challenge Alarazi for the lead but was still only beaten by 3 lengths at the death, Trenchant is a good ground horse who was in the right place to capitalise on the fast pace. I would expect that the form of the dovecote will work out through Ainama, who ran a stormer on good ground bearing in mind how impressive he was on soft, and coupled with the fact that he probably wasnt tuned for a peak today, he must now go to the Supreme Novice with an awesome chance, and the decision to move him out and bring in Torphichen has just made Ainama a value choice for cheltenham and Torphichen a ridiculous price.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.