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If Zaynar turns up he will beat both of them. Don’t be fooled by the horse’s style of running; he has a serious engine. He also has a similar profile to Detroit City and Katchit who both did the double. Celestial Halo was only beaten by the second coming in this race.
I think Starluck is as good as he showed despite Murphy sitting motionless and I don’t think Hebridean fancies it.
I’d disgaree. IMO Celestial Halo was much more impressive last year at cheltenham than Zaynar was this year. Zaynar would look to be a horse in the same mould as Celestial Halo and Detroit City, but not Katchit IMO Katchit was always of a much speedier profile on the flat than the other two and IMO would have been more suited to aintree than the other two.
Its only worth taking on a triumph winner at aintree if there are likely sorts there to take him on with, and IMO this years Triumph didnt look that great, the winner look like the sort who would find 2 miles on better ground round aintree very sharp and I have had Hebridean and Starluck earmarked as adonis/aintree horses since about the turn of the year, as they look like the perfect sorts to take there.
Regarding Hebrdiean not fancying it, Nicholls has had Aintree earmarked for Hebridean for ages, even before the adonis, and he will be stoked up 100% for it. If the ground is good I would give Zaynar very little mission of beating him.
Last year Celestial Halo was beaten by a speed horse on a speedier track, a horse of Binoculars profile was never getting beaten round aintree and Zaynar looks like the sort of horse who be a sitting duck on such a track, especially with some decent looking speedy sorts opposing him.
I agree with you entirely mate but I thought last years Triumph was crap form and look what happened
It’s a changes race these days but it did look a class below the Supreme.
I doubt if any of them will be a threat to the CH horses next season with one exception. I really like Starluck and he will be a force to be reckoned with anywhere outwith Chelters. I could also see him beating the winner at Aintree if they meetStarluck definitely looks an aintree sort.
The one thing with Starluck, and Hebridean too, is that they have no choice but to be top class, because their ideal conditions are the same as Punjabi and Binoculars ideal conditions, and with henderson probably trying to find races and keep those two apart, there will be few races on flat tracks on better ground that those two wont be contesting, so Hebridean and Starluck are going to have to find serious improvement over the summer.
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The idea that Alexander Severus was beaten for pace by Silk Affair, Ski Sunday and Saticon is, in all honesty, laughable.
The winner had, prior to Cheltenham, raced only once over two miles in five outings over hurdles – and that was on her jumping debut (a long way) behind Starluck at Kempton. Since then:
Second at Folkestone (Ronaldo Des Mottes) over 2m 2f in soft ground, only staying on in the final furlong
Won at Towcester over 2m 4f on heavy ground, only getting on top after the last
Won at Sandown over 2m 4f on soft, only getting on top in the final half-furlong
Won at Folkestone (carrying a penalty) over 2m 2f on good-to-soft, only getting on top late on despite odds of 2/13
That is not the profile of a horse capable of winning a race because of a pace advantage.
Connections gave Alexander Severus the best chance of success in taking the route they did. Had they gone for the Triumph, a better race in every respect, he’d have been annihilated.
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quote="Equitrack"]
The idea that Alexander Severus was beaten for pace by Silk Affair, Ski Sunday and Saticon is, in all honesty, laughable.
The winner had, prior to Cheltenham, raced only once over two miles in five outings over hurdles – and that was on her jumping debut (a long way) behind Starluck at Kempton. [/color:12uz00tw]
(That was quite a hot race to debut in though and Kempton is a much sharper track than cheltenham, and all about speed, and most of those she was there with that day were preraced and sent there on that basis, instead of cheptstow in the race won by walkon that was due to be more stamina sapping)
Since then:[/color:12uz00tw]
Second at Folkestone (Ronaldo Des Mottes) over 2m 2f in soft ground, only staying on in the final furlong.[/color:12uz00tw]
Race was over 40 seconds slow
Won at Towcester over 2m 4f on heavy ground, only getting on top after the last[/color:12uz00tw]
Race was almost a minute slow
Won at Sandown over 2m 4f on soft, only getting on top in the final half-furlong[/color:12uz00tw]
Race was 25 secs slow on good ground, despite RPs going description of soft, that was also the Day Torpichen and Ronaldo Des Mottes won
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Won at Folkestone (carrying a penalty) over 2m 2f on good-to-soft, only getting on top late on despite odds of 2/13[/color:12uz00tw]
Race was 34 secs slow on gd-sft
That is not the profile of a horse capable of winning a race because of a pace advantage.[/color:12uz00tw]Every race she’s run in over further than 2 miles has been run to suit a horse who is best at around 2 miles. My point isnt that Silk affair is some kind of speedster who stole the Fred Winter, my point is that SA is quicker in a finish than AS, and she has beaten him on that strength in a race that is much less testing in terms of stamina. Alexander Severus needs a FAST pace to show his best form, just because his form is at 2miles and silk affairs is in slow paced races over further doesnt mean that Silk Affair is slower in a finish than AS. When you look at how well bunched together the field is coming over the last fence you know straight away that it wasnt a searching race, and Saticon and Helium pretty much ran the exact races as they ran in the adonis, with Saticon pulling away from helium but less able to put distance between them than at kempton.
Connections gave Alexander Severus the best chance of success in taking the route they did. Had they gone for the Triumph, a better race in every respect, he’d have been annihilated.[/color:12uz00tw]
To put the Triumph vs Fred Winter into context, the triumph was nearly 2 seconds faster than the fred winter over half a furlong further and on worse ground. Alexander Severus should have been there, but to be fair it is now impossible to prove as its not like he can go for it next year, and its probably unlikely that zaynar will line up in next years county hurdle.
IMO a horse wants a race a certain way, and Silk Affair who always had a great chance in the fred winter and was well fancied, was the perfect horse for that race on the day in terms of all her attributes and more importantly in terms of her balance of speed over stamina and how the race panned out, ski sunday also, and Saticon (second in the Adonis) also. Alexander Severus needs a blistering gallop to show his best form.
On the day and at the prices in the Triumph I went for Mourad as the likely stayer who could potentially trouble Zaynar (admittedly didnt fancy Walkon to run aswell as he did), however, I was gutted as IMO Mourad is not half as good in a finish as Alexander Severus would have been IMO, and with how the triumph panned out and Mourads proximity to the winner says to me that AS would have demolished them.
When you follow Montjeu’s (and it is quite a good thing to do) for a while you will soon see that (and this is virtually a rule with them) not only do most have a high head carriage, and most lack the temperamental soundness to be ridden prominently and a strong pace is what is the key to them, to the extent that they can improve massive numbers of lbs with a fast pace on their slow paced form, and its only usually finishing speed that they are done for when beaten.
As an example of how much improvement a fast pace can bring about from a montjeu I’ll show some examples of some of the shock performances over the years that a fast pace has brought about, will just go for the bigger ones that stand out.
Snoqualmie Boy 1m2f Ascot – improved 21lbs on best form to date. 33-1
Papal Bull improved significantly to almost win the King George at a fast pace, and I hadnt even seen him figuring when he defeated red rocks at ascot in 06.
Pace Shot improved 23lbs for a fast pace behind Detroit City in the triumph 100-1
Won In The Dark improved some 10lbs for a fast pace in the triumph last year (16-1) and another 16 lbs for a fast pace behind sublimity on a more suitable surface (20-1)
Bulwark, of course, travelled like an absolute champion in last years chester cup of a fast pace, and came off the turn stronger than anything in the race and looking like he could run the race again, when everything was knackered 33-1.
Hurricane Run ran a stand out career best performance in a fast paced arc (he was the fav but still improved).
Scorpion improved massively in a fast paced irish derby and with the exeption of his free wheeling arc performance, almost all his best performances tied in with a decent clip.
Montmartre, improved massively (19 lbs) for a fast pace in the GPDP.
Frozen Fire improved massively for a faster pace in the Dante (26lbs), and again for a fast pace in the irish derby.
It is because they are almost all such strong travellers that it is generally the finishing speed that a Montjeu can summon up that dictates what sort of grade it can run in, which is why I was so confident on Won In The Dark e/w last year (and at the same time how I knew straight away that Celestial Halos Triumph form last year was rock solid when he out travelled WITD off a strong pace)) and why I so wanted to see AS go for this race after having shown what he did in his pre cheltenham race at leopardstown, he was the perfect horse for this race, and with the first three home looking so laboured in the finish, there’s no doubt in my mind that he’d have just cruised past them, and I think in time the form of the triumph will be shown up as not really being that great.
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They’re extremely selective results, Bulwark, made to fit race and horse profiles you obviously arrived at before the events in question.
Ignoring the fact that Montmartre, Frozen Fire and Hurricane Run were all entitled to improve anyway, I struggle to see how Bulwark, Papal Bull, Snoqualmie Boy and Pace Shot lend any credence to your argument. Ignoring the fact that Papal Bull has never been devoid of ability, only Pace Shot has won (a poor race at odds-on) since the races you mention. The quartet have notched no less than 36 subsequent losses between them having been, on the whole, soundly beaten.
Are we to believe that the pace has been insufficient on each and every occasion?
Alexander Severus simply wasn’t good enough, beaten as he was by a horse for whom a test of stamina is vital – to suggest that he’d have ‘cruised past’ better horses in the Triumph is ludicrous. I’m sure Edward O’Grady knows exactly what he’s doing, and if he says the Triumph wasn’t the right race I’m inclined to believe him.
My point regarding those isnt that they improve permanently once theyve had a fast pace, it is simply that when they get a fast pace in a race they are much better in that race. It may be selective but IMO you can only go for horses towards the top grade when looking at these things as its so hard to know whether a horse is just a hound who has just run a true race on its day. If you follow any decent Montjeu for a period of time you’ll notice the same thing, they are almost always best at a fast pace, and many are completely reliant on a fast pace to be able to win in their grade.
I dont agree that O’Grady knew what he was doing regarding the two horses, even Alan King hasnt worked out how to campaign Montjeus yet, as he had Mount Helicon, a 1m4-1m6f flat horse, and he was campaigning him on flat tracks in paceless races, so like the rest of us, from those races he has no idea how good the horse actually is, and we wont know until the horse actually gets a race thats better suited to him, but I would bet in time he will prove to be at least 20lbs better than hes shown over hurdles so far.
I think O’grady just looked at the two horses he had, and where one had formlines with the best irish juveniles and the other didnt, so that one went for the triumph and the other went for the fred winter.
PS I didnt say I arrived at any conculsions before any races, although I did have a few of the laters, because it did take me a while of following Montjeus to pick up on this general trend. Generally n 2005 I used to just look at a 1m4f race to see if there was a Montjeu in it, and I’d back it, and if there was two I’d do a forecast, and it actually worked out quite well because there were so many Montjeu forecasts back then. Then over time through following them just noticed patterns.
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