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I tried this last season (doing more cheltenham anteposters than day to day bets) and it worked but it may not this time around so am just going to keep a little log of what I’m backing for cheltenham on here for it. Only other horses backed for cheltenham at present are binocular at 20s or 25s (have to check that) and captain cee bee (out for the season) both for the champ hurdle.
First bet is Indian Groom 0.5pt e/w 0.5 pt win @ 33-1 (Coral).
Quite like this horse and have a feeling that his price will shorten considerably if he wins tomorrow which I fancy it will.
Indian Groom would not have been suited to the extremely slow pace on saturday but still ran well giving weight to the first two, hopefully he will perform better next time, so not too disheartened with his run.
Supreme Novices Hurdle – American Trilogy 0.5pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1
Really like this horse of Nicholls, and with many of Nicholls not really having looked absolutely tip-top yet I think he may be better than his win at Aintree, he certainly has the profile of a decent supreme novice horse.
i think,torkingking represents some e/w value,because the race is easier than last time,no astarador or something in,and he did not too bad last time,is genuine and gos on the ground.good luck
i think,torkingking represents some e/w value,because the race is easier than last time,no astarador or something in,and he did not too bad last time,is genuine and gos on the ground.good luck
sorry,took the wrong thread…apologies from me..
Triumph Hurdle – Mount Helicon 0.5 pt e/w 1 pt win @ 25-1 Has been constent pockets of support for this one of kings lately and every time I look he is getting cut in again. Think he could be something and certainly has the profile to be the right type for a triumph. Time will tell
Cheltenham Gold Cup
1pt e/w Albertas Run @ 20-1
1pt e/w Big Bucks @ 25-1
With the gold cup market revolving heavily around two horses who are not appearing to be 100%, Kauto never having looked the same since his injury scare following his prep run for the 2008 gold cup, and denman due to miss almost the entire season with a heart problem. Together with the fact that Nichoolls has shown nothing but confidence in the ability of Big Bucks who he believes is a gold cup horse, and the huge support for Albertas Run (off 11 stone 9) which appears stronger than the support he had prior to cheltenham. Either horse must surely be in the reckoning if winning.
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle.
Tramp Stamp 1pt e/w 25-1
With the runs that Chomba Womba is putting in at present, surely if she is fit and well come cheltenham, she will go for the Champion rather than the David Nicholson. Regardless, I think that Tramp Stamp appears to be an up and coming mare and with similar ground conditions to this years I would be hopeful she can do something.
I like your thinking on the Gold Cup Bul’ but have probably drawn different conclusions as I don’t rate last years RSA too highly. We will know an awful lot more on Saturday Evening as AR, AF1 and BB all go outside their previous population of opponents for the first time.
I think AR or even BB could win Hennessy but cant see a Gold Cup winner even if KS and Denman dont show in March.
War Of Attrition has impressed me greatly this year and I have had 1pt at 25s.Could well be a play Shabby, War Of Attrition is certainly classy and his main ability is abilty to travel in his races, which is also denmans, so at 25s he’s value for a fight. No rush with WOA at the minute, but will wait and see how this pair get n at the weekend, like them both too.
World Hurdle – Punchestowns 2pt win 12-1
A nice horse on the upgrade who is attracting serious irregular support for the world hurdle in which he is by no means out of it.
Snap – also have a 1pt on Punchestowns at 12s for World Hurdle.
Additionally I am a big fan of Pettifour and have 1pt at 16s…think he has a great chance tomorrow also and 6/1 looks a very fair price to me.Arkle Trophy – Araldur 1pt e/w @ 33-1
Think that with the form he has in the book he is over priced and should be shorter come the time whether he wins today or not.
Hi Bulwark, if you don’t mind me adding to your thread…I had a bit of ante post play after yesterday’s action and we played in the same race but taking a different view.
1pt Ballyfitz …RSA at 14/1, this is a topping up exercise I am up to 4pts now and he runs on Friday at Cheltenham. I think he will win there (Lodge Lane would be an interesting opponent). My main ap tilt so far.
1pt Our Vic …KG at 16/1, I have taken a view against Kauto this term (due to his age and performance). The KG then becomes a really interesting heat. I have gone for OV as he made it his seasonal debut last year and beat all except an outstanding KS. Classy Pipe horses at big prices has always been a decent system imho.
1pt Free World…Arkle at 20/1, I too was very impressed by Araldur but his trainer wrote off the the Arkle immediately afterwards (may have a rethink of course). Reading some interviews with Clive Smith early in the year he bought FW to win the Arkle, although beaten yesterday the pair were miles clear (36 lengths a huge distance for a 2 mile chase). Most of the Irish novices look stayers. Also I can see see FW turning round the narrow defeat. So he is definetly aimed at the race, has excellent form and is with terrific connections. 20/1 looks very fair.
1/2pt Simarian…Triumph at 20/1, very taken with him at Open meeting, that was on the Old Course and importantly he looks the type to be much better on the New Course. Encouraging reports from up and coming trainer, topped up.
1/2pt WOA…Gold Cup at 20/1, just think this fellow has looked fantastic this year. Small top up pre John Durkan (which didn’t take place as it happens).
Importantly for me all of the above have clear targets and are very unlikely to have alternatives. That only leaves injury, loss of form, my poor judgement or better rivals to worry about!
No probs Shabby. I do like Free World and it will be interesting to see if he can improve further, but think a testing clip could be his undoing, considering whether to back war of attrition, he doesnt really like a slow pace, but if denamn lines up then 20-1 WOA is a decent price.
Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
Fiveforthree 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1 (totepsort)
Thought he looked a special sort last year on gd-sft or worse (winning the ballymore on his second start over hurdles) and 20-1 on him is too big, not due t run until later in the season and his price should shorten when he does.
World Hurdle
Celestial Halo 1pt @ 25-1
If he is defeated on saturday at cheltenham, then the world hurdle will surely be his target, as he wants further and is clearly no less than one for the top grade.
Triumph Hurdle – 1/2pt e/w 1pt win Zaynar @ 25-1 (Coral)
This one is being hammered in the betting ahead of a very hot class 4 on wednesday, which features a few well talked up horses. Betting is similar to that which came before Binoculars debut last year, and where I’m nopt a huge fan of his pedigree henderson has brought out a decent horse in Giorgio Quercus, who hasnt seen a huge amount of money yet, the betting suggests that Zaynar is much better.
Interesting approach Bul’…a sort of betting trend analysis.
Looks like a cracking heat tomorrow…good luck with your fellow.
Binocular didn’t make the Triumph field though…lets hope they have a more traditional approach this time..all the best.I was out of the UK for the first part of the jumps, I returned on 21st december, and Franchoek and askazar were disputing favoritism for the triumph. A decent gamble then developed on Celestial Halo prior to his debut (there had always been pecking at him). Followed by a big plunge on binocular, there was also a bit of a gamble on Won In The Dark in early january, aswell as a momentary gamble on the grey berry. Of all those horses only the grey berry turned out to be hopeless, despite having plenty of potential.
Binocular eventually ended up going for the supreme novice, which I felt was the right move as the the way the triumph was shaping wouldnt have been up his street and McManus had one who would be more suited to it. Binocular eventually went for the supreme and I backed him buthe was beaten by Captain Cee Bee who I’d backed months earlier at 16-1 after a similar gamble on him. I eventually backed Celestial Halo at 11/2 much closer to the day of the triumph and had Won In The Dark e/w @ 20-1 as my banker of the meeting.
The antepost markets for chelteham proved invaluable last season and I am trying this out this season again as a system in the hope that they work again.
I have three for the triumph at the minute but am concerned that they are all staying types for a 2 mile hurdle and where it was easy to see from sometime before this years that the triumph would be a staying contest, 2009s has not been confirmed as being so. I need a couple of speed horses as it stands, but just nee to see something that stands out.
And there it is the gamble on hebridean has started, thats what I have been waiting to see.
Hebridean 1pt e/w 2pt win @ 16-1 (William Hill)
Have always liked Hebridean for this since was a flat horse and even if he doesnt win he will always be a danger in this market, have to be on him for this.
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