The long road to Cheltenham.

[Bulwark]

Triumph Hurdle

1pt e/w 1pt win Alexander Severus @ 50-1

If he goes for this race he should win IMO. Looked incredible today.

[Anonymous]

How many ante-posts bets have you had, Bulwark, just out of interest?

[Bulwark]

Loads mate , will try to go through and make up a summary later on for each bet in each race although I know before hand that I am more geared towards the triumph than any other race, done the same last year and it worked, although last year, although last year had a strong hand in the supreme novice as opposed to the triumph, and luckily got up a decent bet each day or two of the festival. I find it easier to work towards cheltenham on the jumps than to bet day in day out.

Love Montjeus in the triumph though, because the fast paces bring out improved form from them and so far have had Pace Shot 4th in detroit citys at 100-1 and Won In th Dark 3rd in last years at liek 25s and 20s.

This year I have Zaynar backed but want to take him on with any decent Montjeus, and so far theres Mount Helicon (who I’d still give a hell of a chance to if he turns up), First Avenue and Alexander Severus. If this alexander severus turns up for te triumph I think he will be the bet of the festival for me e/w.

That was an awesome travelling performance in the 315 at leopardstown today (when you look at how hes moving relative to the rest of the field at the finish and recckon he would have won by 5-10 lengths with a clear run from the last, which would put him right up on about 140ish IMO with the very top of the contenders for the triumph, and think he looks the type to come up the hill like a train. At a current price of 50-1 I couldnt leave him alone.

[Bulwark]

Betting summary so far

TRIUMPH
Indian Groom 0.5pt e/w 0.5 pt win @ 33-1 (Coral).

Mount Helicon 0.5 pt e/w 1 pt win @ 25-1

1/2pt e/w 1pt win Zaynar @ 25-1 (Coral)

Hebridean 1pt e/w 2pt win @ 16-1
2pts Tharawaat @ 16-1 (William Hill)

1pt e/w 1pt win Alexander Severus @ 50-1

17.5 Points Out

SUPREME NOVICE

American Trilogy 0.5pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1

Hurricane Fly 4pts @ 5-1 (William Hill)

Copper Bleu 1pt e/w 1pt win 25-1

Eradicate 1pt e/w 1pt win 20-1 (coral)
Red Moloney 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 25-1 (bet 365)
1pt e/w 1pt win Kempes @ 33-1 (skybet)

18pts Out

GOLD CUP
1pt e/w Albertas Run @ 20-1
1pt e/w Big Bucks @ 25-1
Denman 2pts win @ 5-1

6pts out

ARKLE

Araldur 1pt e/w @ 33-1

1pt e/w 1pt win Follow the plan @ 12-1 (William Hill)
Followtheplan 1pt e/w 1pt win Followtheplan @ 25-1 (William Hill)

Planet Of Sound 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1 (Coral)

1pts out

RSA

Fiveforthree 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1 (totepsort)
What A Friend 2pts win @ 7-1

5pts out

RYANAIR

1pt e/w 1pt win Gwanako @ 20-1

3pts out

WORLD HURDLE

Punchestowns 2pt win 12-1
Big Bucks 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 14-1 Coral

1/2pte/w 1pt win Petitfour @ 14-1
Celestial Halo 1pt @ 25-1

8pts out

CHAMP HURDLE

1pt e/w 1pt win Binocular @ 20-1
Champion Hurdle – Snap Tie 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 20-1

Celestial Halo 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1
1pt e/w Won In The Dark @ 66-1
1pt e/w 1pt win Celestial Halo @ 12-1

1/2pt e/w 1/2pt win Snap Tie @ 40-1

15.5 pts out

DAVID NICHOLSON

Tramp Stamp 1pt e/w 25-1

2pts out

Total of 76 points invested so far, have highlighted those bets that I would be most confident about.

[Anonymous]

Christ almighty – dare I ask how much a point is worth

I suppose everyone’s approach to ante-post betting is different, but have you had a lot of success in approaching a festival with so many horses running for you? Presumably even one or two winners isn’t generally enough to cover your initial outlay?

[Bulwark]

A point is a fiver on this thread but a tenner on the 2 mile hurdle races thread (because it isnt such a long term investment), which over the space of a season isnt too much of a noticeable layout, the actual tactic is to get good horses covered at better prices than they will be on the day, and when you have a stronger opinion by the time of the festival then you can strengthen your hand along with your line of thought in each race, and still have some redundancy.

For example, in the Triumph I have Zaynar who I would strongly fancy to win at present out of the sure to run contenders. I have invested 17.5 pts out but get 44.5 back if he wins, so that gives me a bit of flex to play with nearer the time. If alexander severus was to line up I would hope to get another 5-10 points on him e/w.

At the minute I have Starluck as and Ronaldo Des Mottes as uncovered dangers, and I will see if Starluck goes for the adonis and if so how he runs against the likes of Hebridean if H also lines up, RDM I will wait and see if he goes for the Imperial Cup/Fred Winter double. I have Walkon down as a soft ground specialist, in much the same mould as Five Dream last season, and I cant see him winning at cheltenham. I would be very confident about the three montjeus that I mentioned on the triumph thread and will wait and see how they fare in the betting and the relative field line ups closer to the time before deciding on how to play them.

Anothrer aspect of this method is that because you are actually watching the markets so regularly, you actually get a fair idea of who is fancied closer to the time and as you are closely watching most of the trials with an idea of who should win, you can spot the hardluck stories etc.

I may have been lucky last year as had (by memory), captain cee bee 16-1, masterminded 12-1, Celestial Halo 11-2, Venalmar e/w and Fiveforthree (cant remember the prices on those two), Albertas Run 11-2, Tidal Bay 8-1, Whiteoak 20 or 25-1 and Tiger Cry (cant remember the price on that). And my banker was Won In the dark e/w at various prices from 20s to 25s. Think I had about 300 in bets running at the start of cheltenham week and finished the week with 1280 on top of my bank that I started the week with. Venalmar, fiveforthree,whiteoak and tigercry were all ones that I backed on the day because I was already up from other bets. That was a stand out cheltenham for me though as had previously struggled to get 2 or 3 winner at the meeting in the past, but it was laos the first year I tried this method am keen to try it again.

I always keep a bank to start the week with, and have each antepost bet down as beaten before they run (because they are last months money, and beyond, and I would probably have wasted that money on something else anywhay), but last year captain cee bee won the supreme novice, and where I didnt make a huge amount on the actual race as had others better covered on the day, obviously being the first race meant that I had some cash on top of my bank, which was almost half my antepost layout back (as had so much of my antepost layout running in the supreme novice), and as the week went on I never actually had to touch my cheltenham bank.

Basically if I can hit one result where I have a strong fancy well covered in the race then I will probably make a profit overall. Fingers crossed that happens.

[Bulwark]

Supreme Novice

1pt win Kempes @ 20-1 (top up)

Will be hard to beat on sunday and fair chance he’ll shorten further.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

1pt e/w 1pt win Weapons Amnesty @ 20-1

1pt e/w 1pt win Caim Hill @ 33-1 (Skybet)

Like the look of both these horses, think both are overlooked and overpriced and and if cheltenham goes well, I may top up on the pair of them later on.

Triumph Hurdle

1pt e/w 1pt win Ronaldo Des Mottes @ 50-1 (Totesport)

Fred Winter

1pt e/w 1pt win Ronaldo Des Mottes @ 14-1 (Coral)

RDM looks a really versatile horse who travels well and has a bit of speed, should handle the surface, has enough experience and should be hard to beat in the fred winter, if he’s not shorter by the time of the race I’ll back him again, IMO he is also overpriced for the triumph should they decide to run him there. Is currently rated 140 which looks a bit unreasonable in all fairness, and if that isnt adjusted then the triumph may be the only option for him.

[Bulwark]

Triumph Hurdle

Helium 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 33s

With the emerging field for the triumph, this one looks one of the leading "more certain to run" contenders, should love the conditions of the triumph, and if he wins today or goes close, which on gd-sft is much harder to rule out, he will be much harder to back than he currently is at 33s.

[Bulwark]

Supreme Novice

Ainama 5pts e/w 5pts win @ 14-1 (with sporting bet)

Looks the best bet of the festival IMO. Went well at kempton on good ground (much better than I expected anyway), made a few mistakes and probably wasnt fully fired up. He looks like he’ll be ideally suited to conditions in the supreme novice and looks certain to run into a place at least, I reckon hes the biggest danger to Hurricane Fly, and with a vets decision due to be be made on wednesday regarding hurricane fly, I think Ainama could soon be much shorter than 14-1 and 12-1. I dont think either Torpichen or Cousin Vinny will be up to troubling Ainama at cheltenham, and on all form he should be about 5 or 6-1. Have a few covered in the race already, that will hopefull go well but Ainama now looks e/w banker material.

Coral Cup

Eleazar 2pt e/w 2pts win @ 20-1

Looks a brilliant bet after saturdays win. This horse is similarly bred to fair along (a horse who always runs best at the festival), likes a fast pace and was very progressive over hurdles prior to a set back, his comeback performance looked great and he should have plenty of improvement to come, and be better on good-soft, could be very hard to beat at an e/w price. May be cut slightly when the ratings are published.

Arkle

Followtheplan 2pts e/w 2pts win @ 25-1

I still cant believe he managed to beat tatenen at a moderate pace on decent ground on a flat track earlier in the season, when giving Tatenen 11lbs. That was by far the the novice chasing performance of the season. Accordions go brilliantly at the festival, and the arkle is a race that is often won by a horse that gets further than the 2 miles (which he looks like). The 25-1 merely represents the fact they put tatenen running below form that day, he is with a small yard and there has been no hype surrounding him. He will be hard to beat in the arkle.

[Bulwark]

Grand Annual

Vinmix De Bessy 2pt win @ 20-1 (Coral)

Oh Crick 2pts win @ 20-1 (Paddy Power)

Both decent horses who should like the ground and are well handicapped, VDB currently strong in the market too.
Also like charlie Swans Valain, but reckon taht as the markwet strengthens he could be picked up at a better price.

Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle

Wendel 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 50-1 (Sporting Bet)

Think he looks the perfect type for this race. Didnt quite have the speed to get in front against Medermit and Dee Ee Williams earlier in the season on gs/sft-sft and then ran a really good race at 2m4f at ascot on heavy ground with a really impressive time, think that on good-soft, with a decent pace he should prove his worth and looks too big.

[Bulwark]

Jewson Novice Chase

Tranquil Sea 2pt e/w 2pt win @ 14-1

Clarified 1pt win @ 14-1

Was looking at tranquil sea in the R+SA as an outsider who should have improvement on the ground on the rest of his chasing form, then saw he was more likely to be going for the jewson and think he’ll be well handicapped and ran well in last seasons supreme novice without having anywhere near enough toe to get competetive with those who finished in front of him. Clarified is really just a saver on a tony martin horse who should also be well handicapped, having been campaigned on unsuitable ground thusfar.

[Bulwark]

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Oscar Rebel 2pts e/w 4pts win @ 16-1 (Ladbrokes)

I fancied her chances even when whiteoak was in the field, so with Whiteoaks out of the line up she looks an absolute steal, and is shortening with most firms. Hard to see her failing to place and hard to rule her out of a win. Her form on gd-sft last year was very good and she took a dip in form on heavy early this season (as would be expected), but her form behind catch me recently would suggest that she is going to cheltenham in the form of her life.

Issaquah 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 50-1 (Bet365)

I still dont think we’ve seen the best of her, she was outsped on unsuitably quicker ground than she would have liked next time out behind Serabad, in a race which through up today’s winner dave’s dream. Gd-Sft over this trip could well be what she is crying out for and she could go well.

May have a saver on Hendersons mare Caroles Legacy if she runs.

[Bulwark]

Coral Cup

Dancing Tornado 2pt e/w 4pt win @ 16-1

Ran really well for third in the race behind serabad and lough derg, and is only up 2lbs for that performance, however, the performance that is most relevant when coupled with that is his performance in the pierse hurdle, as he ran a stormer on good-sft ground that day, without having the toe to go and win it. Has a very progressive look about him and should have everything right up his street, will be hard to beat IMO.

[Bulwark]

Pertemps Final

Green Mile 1pt win @ 12-1

Tony martin horse who has had a fair bit of support and looks a a likely type on pedigree, and rough patches of form (the best you can really hope for with Martins). Not going to go in too heavy on it, as have other fancies but on the off chance that the money continues to come in at least Ive got him covered at a reasonable price.

[Bulwark]

Champion Hurdle

Jered 1pt e/w 2pts win @ 40-1 (Sporting Bet)

Won In The Dark 2pt win @ 40-1 (Coral)

Snap Tie 1pt win @ 50-1 (Coral)

Just topped up and added on Jered to the team (reasons explained on champ hurdle thread). Think the extra cut we’ve been having should suit Snap Tie and Jered, and won in the dark is still there because on gd-sft think he’s still got a cracking shout, and it’s still gd-sft.

[Bulwark]

Supreme Novice

1pt /w 4pts win Copper Bleu @ 16-1

Just getting a few more points on this one as fancy his chances tomorrow and could do with covering him a bit better.

Micheal Flips 4pt win @ 14-1

This one could really spoil my party so covering him off.

Golan Way 2pt win @ 33-1

Another who could spoil the party being covered off.

Gloucester 1/2pt e/w 200-1 (Sporting bet)

Alarazi 1pt e/w @ 125-1

(Sporting Bet)

I’d give each of these a fair chance at opposite paces, gloucester for a strong pace and alarazi for a not so strong one and both are very capable on their day.

So have 48pts laid out in ths

Micheal Flips would return 60pts

Ainama would return 169pts

Kempes would return 96.6pts

Red Moloney would return 57pts

Copper Bleu would return 146.1pts

Golan Way would return 68pts

Alarazi would return 152pts

Gloucester would return 121pts

As long as Medermit or Aachen dont win (the two biggest dangers) I should do OK here, big old gamble though but this could potentially put me in a good position for the week or put me 48 pts behind after the first race. Had a fair few points laid out in this race last year and luckily Captain Cee Bee set me off to a good start so am hoping on of these can do the same.

[Bulwark]

Arkle Trophy

Golden Silver 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1

Bringbackthebiff 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 40-1

Having just watched the supreme nvice I suspect that the ground is playing in the favour of softer ground horses and so am covering off followtheplan with a couple here.

[Author]

Posts