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You have to look closely at that Champion stakes. It was a average renewal and i’d not call it a Group One.
1st NAYEF: Previously winning Group 3’s well enough.
2nd TOBOUGG: 3rd in an average Derby behind Galileo, the only real Group One horse in the race. 4th in a farce of an Eclipse with a fast pace meaning the front five finishing about a length apart. Then second in Hong Kong Cup where Hawkeye was behind him in fourth.
3rd INDIAN CREEK: Group 3 winner now and can not confidently be though of as a G1 horse.
4th HAWKEYE: Beaten in three Asian Group One’s (including when 8l’d behind Grandera). Not close to a G1 horse.
That Champion stakes was G2/G3 standard…G2 at best.
Dubai Sheema Classic
Another easy-to-knock G1. Helene Vitality ran the race of his life to finsih second and has been well beaten in Sha Tin Group One’s too many times for this Sheema Classic form to be solid.
Boreal was third. On soft ground he would beat Nayef over 12f. Boreal won a fair Coronation Cup and is a good horse on soft ground. The ground at Nad Al Sheba would not have suited him as well and he’s since improved.
Marienbard was fourth and gives the form a G2 look to it. He won a G2 at Newmarket with the weights in his favour and has since been hammered by Boreal in the Coronation Cup.
That Sheema Classic was a G2 on my reading of the form. Boreal is the bright spot and could run close in the King George if it rains.
Nayef has been put in his place in two G1’s since and although he is out of form at the moment, his earlier form suggests that he has a mountain to climb if he’s ever to compete with Sakhee, High Chaparral, Grandera and even Boreal. Nayef would have struggled against Fantastic Light and Galileo last year.
So Nayef is not a G1 horse on my reading of his form and his two G1 wins recieved a lower rating than Boreal’s Coronation Cup, meaning that Boreal has improved since and is probably a better horse on his going. I do think the Coronation Cup was more G2 than G1 but Boreal won very nicely.
Indian Creek was beaten by Nayef in the Champion stakes (g/s) and the Tatts Gold cup (sft) and it may be that the fast ground has helped him turn the form around.
As for the pace yesterday, i think it spoilt any chance Bach had as he had to use alot of energy trying to keep up with the pacemaker. Banks Hills and Nayef struggled to keep up they strong gallop they were going 2f out and Grandera went nicely by. Indian Creek picked up ground because he was suited by the pace.
Grandera finishing 5 clear of Indian Creek is pretty good. If Grandera is improving as we reckon he is, then it’s more than likely he’ll win another G1 next time out. But right now, i’m just being a little cautious (that’s my way i’m afraid).
Right now i’d say Grandera would beat Hawk Wing because he has loads of speed and lots of guts, he’s also won a G1 this year whilst Hawk Wing hasn’t. Grandera might have a different head position but i think he’s a battler. Hopefully he’ll go on to win another G1 next time (Eclipse?) and do you guys think he’ll be as good at 12f because he could be a Breeders Cup horse?
Ooops…i’ve gone on a bit here!
<br>Like i typed earlier DM, Grandera had to improve to win…and he improved! The form of the Prince of Wales isn’t too strong (given Banks Hill not staying and Indian Creek in second) but Grandera won going clear. It was an impressive performance.
I still think Grandera would have to be better to beat Fantastic Light or Giant’s Causeway or indeed the likes of Halling but i’ll tell you if i still think that when i’ve worked out the ratings for the race!
By the way, just to be a little more detailed. I don’t think the form of yesterday’s race is all that strong because Nayef has run below form (and isn’t a G1 horse anyway) and Banks Hill hasn’t stayed. Indian Creek has finished behind Nayef twice but overturned form yesterday. There was also a strong pace which helped the front two. The fact that Indian Creek’s best performance was winning the G3 Earl Of Sefton by a head suggests bad news for him (at G1 level) and those behind him if they continue to run below form.
But Grandera hammered them nonetheless. Let’s see if he can do it again and, if he can, we’ve got a real nice horse to watch! 10f is what he wants and a strong pace too (calling all pacemakers…) and he’s improving all the time. Shame it’s not James Fanshawe training him because he’s a good bloke but well done to Grandera and Godolphin.
<br>Esc,
You’ve probably noticed….Sentinel has now won three races in a row over tips ranging from 1m2f – 1m4f. Easy money eh?
IHAL –
What is there to complain about? Nothing in some people’s views. Johnston made it clear that he liked Bandari and Kevin Darley liked Fight Your Corner…that tells you which horse Johnston fancied the most.
As for the thread on Chit Chat II, personally, i didn’t agree with some of the opinions put up but i do not regard any of the people that posted on that thread as racist. I disagreed with what the original poster typed but that person was not typing racist comments.
<br>IHAL – Aidan O’Brien said that Hawk Wing was the kind of horse you could run in a July Cup. He also said Galileo could drop back to a mile because he has the speed to do it.
Johnston actually said Bandari was his best Derby horse but that Kevin Darley wanted to ride Fight Your Corner.
<br>Osborne said that the stable don’t mind cheating and that they had an in house man to ride the horses…sadly, we haven’t any proof that Osborne has fixed races….if indeed he has.
Murphy…well, if Betfair are providing evidence that Murphy was lying then he must have been. I don’t know why he’d lie or if he did.
Wintle…this was the more interesting part. He was caught in the act, easy for the JC to do something about it.
My argument is how important is all this handicapping horses stuff.
Warwick: Seattle Alley’s SP was 11/1 The betting shop punter could have easily seen the horse was not fancied.
Fontwell: Seattle Alley was running over 2m6f and the furthest he’d won over was 2m1f. Anyone who backed the horse must have been at least a little mad…it had no chance on the book that day.
Uttoxeter: Here we go. He was pulled up. He wasn’t really in a challenging position when pulled up (from memory…correct me if i’m wrong) and was again running over a trip arguably too far for him.
From a form book point of view, it was not a good idea to back him on any of those runs…it would be interesting to know how much was bet on him.
BUT…Wintle admitted to cheating. Seattle Alley was never in the race at Warwick and was more than likely not prepared for it. The JC should act on the evidence and get Wintle banned from training.
<br>BUT (again) i think there are more important matters that must be dealt with before this handicapping lark.
What happens to all the horses retired from racing each season?
Are there any horses neglected or mistreated in training?
Does doping take place?
I would like to see more done to protect the welfare of the horse rather than the punter TO START WITH. <br>I don’t think the program stunned racing and it told people outside racing what they more than likely knew…racing isn’t 100% straight.
Without the horse, there’s no racing. Without betting there’s no racing.
I’d like to think the safety of the horse was paramount and then i’d like the punter to be given a fair go.
So, although this program wasn’t mind blowing, let’s hope it at leasts prompts the JC club to take some action. If it doesn’t, then racing fans like us have to press the JC.
The one aim we must have is to pull open those big doors that let people in to racing. Those doors are currently shut to anybody outside the industry…it’s a closed world and it’s hard to get in. If we could just let people in and if the JC were open about what they are doing to stop cheating…racing would be better off.
But it all comes down to money. Who cheats the punters? Evidently some trainers and jockeys, bookies maybe.
Basically, i’d like to hear more about what’s being done to protect the welfare of the racehorse. Then i’d like more done to clamp down on non-triers.
I must add one more thing…it would be unrealistic of anyone to suggest we could ever TOTALLY rid racing of cheaters. There is money to be made and where there’s money…there’s a big chance you’ll find corruption.
<br>About Hawk Wing’s bottle…Escorial has said that it’s a hunch. I had a similar feeling but of course the ground was a possible problem for him too.
Aidan, Hawk Wing did not have everything against him in the Derby. The ground was an unknown and the distance of the race was the other problem. The draw? That didn’t inconveniance the horse at all and the same goes for the track. Hawk Wing had Kinane riding too, surely not a negative.
Hawk Wing certainly looks liked he’d have won the 2000 Guineas but for being on the wrong side. We’ll never know for certain but it’s 99% likely HW would have won. The form book though has him a neck behind ROG and rating Hawk Wing higher than ROG means guessing by how many lengths Hawk Wing would have won by and that’s not easy to do.
Postmark gave Hawk Wing a mark of 127 and ROG 121…that’s 6lbs difference, which is about 3 lengths over 1 mile.
This is guesswork. Rock Of Gibraltar is the 2000 Guineas winner of 2002 yet the handicapper has Hawk Wing as the winner…by 3 lengths.
Whilst i feel Hawk Wing would have won, it is not 100% certain (nothing is in racing) and i can well understand why someone would back ROG over Hawk Wing if they ever meet again over 1 mile.
<br>Just a hunch for me too Esc, if he wins over 10f next time – possibly in the Eclipse according to Clare Balding – then he’ll have proven my hunch wrong.
Right now though, i’m not sure. Hawk Wing was going quite well, was then ridden to get on terms with High Chaparral and then dropped back. My hunch is that Hawk Wing was outbattled rather than outstayed…but that will only become clear when Hawk Wing runs over 10f, which should be a good distance for him.
Yes…the 2000 Guineas winner this season…Ballydoyle, 1000? Godolphin. The Guineas didn’t go to either team last season – Godolphin came close – so the two set ups are either getting stronger of the rest getting weaker. Who won the Derby and Oaks last year? Ballydoyle, no stunners there!
I agree, the domination of the two teams is boring and i think harms the competitive nature of the sport. Let’s hope Godolphin don’t branch out to National Hunt!
<br>Coshocton’s sad death today will get the coverage every racehorse death deserves.
Unlucky with Arabie Daz, Willie Ryan went for the stand rail, lost a load of ground and Arabie was fourth. He’d have been third had around four lengths not been chucked in the bin!
Firstly, Coshocton’s death was terrible. I’ve no idea why the horse died or what he looked like in the paddock but i’d like to see a full investigation of every racehorse death and the findings made public. It was sad to see Coshocton die, along with any racehorse. It’s always worth remembering that if we didn’t have the horse, we wouldn’t have the race.
Escorial, High Chaparral had lots in his favour today and took full advantage. A very nice horse. Hawk Wing didn’t have so much in his favour and ran well…didn’t seem to last 12f as well as the winner. A little troubled by Hawk Wing…his head was arkward, either because he didn’t enjoy the ground or another reason. He didn’t go by High Chaparral, either because he didn’t stay 12f as well as the winner or because he was outbattled. If he wins over 10f then all will be well but if he gets beaten in a close finish again then i’ll be more than a little troubled. I think he deserves another chance right now.
Bandari: his Lingfield form was poor but he should have run closer to Moon Ballad than he did. Bandari didn’t run to form today, but he’d not have been close to the front two if he did, he’d have been around fourth by my reckoning.
Finally, i want to agree with you on the Ballydoyle/Godolphin thing. It’s an argument i’ve been having with people for ages and today proved how British racing is struggling.
DERBY RESULT:
1st – Ballydoyle<br>2nd – Ballydoyle<br>3rd – Godolphin
Frustrating stuff and it’s hard to see it changing soon.
<br>Sadly Houston Park (the selection in the 2:40 at Sandown the other day) died. I’m not sure what the problem was but Houston Park pulled up and was put down. I didn’t read anything in the press. If we didn’t have horses, we wouldn’t have racing and i think more should be done to comemerate those horses that die and look at ways to stop the deaths.
Sorry, completely off the subject of the thread, but i just wanted to note my thoughts down.
<br>Well, what a surprise Esc, in Sentinel goes at 5/2 by 5 lengths.
Well done with the MAX :)
One thing bothers me though, why haven’t the Jockey Club fined connections? It was obvious what was going on, the proof’s on this thread. So why haven’t the connections been done under the non-triers rule and have any questions been asked about yesterday’s win?
I’d be keen to know if the stewards called an enquiry…cheers, Rob
<br>Hi Daz, the 3yo’s only handicaps (class B or lower) on the turf might be the one’s that pull down the profit over the season…actually, they might be better now we’re further in. 3yo only non-listed race handicaps can be bloody annoying if there’s a trainer out to get a few wins with a now fully matured horse that’s 2yo form figures are: 008 or something like that.
Well done so far, Rob.
<br>Already one winner today Daz!! Considering you found this in a book that’s about 15 years old, i would say this is the kind of system that has a decent chance of producing results over a long period of time.
<br>Steve, why would Hawk Wing be a true wonder horse if he wins?
It’s hardly a brilliant field and he could beat them purley through being a Group One horse against lesser opposition.
Bandari’s Derby Trial was poor and Fight Your Corner wouldn’t be the strongest 3yo about. Naheef’s been beaten by Hawk Wing already.
Hawk Wing’s a Group One horse – no doubting that – but if he wins the Derby it’ll be because he’s faster than the pretty average horses he’s racing against.
High Chaparral is a good horse and should be favourite in my view.
Superb!! Well done Daz!
It pays to keep an eye on trends in handicaps. Having a win over the distance against your horses name is often vital. I’ve always preferred to follow 3yo+ handicaps because the 3yo only races consist of horses who were messed about with at 2.
After a while of testing this system, it might be wise to see how many of the winners/placed horses you’ve been successful with have had a recent run (within about 32 days).
Anyway, well done so far! Rob.
