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<br>Mark Johnston’s ideas are not convincing. He has said that owners should aspire to own better horses and compete in better races. But hang on a minute Mr Johnston!
I owned a part-share in a horse for one year. He ran in sellers and small handicaps. I enjoyed seeing his name in the paper and watching him race. I liked meeting him at the stables, seeing him gallop and patting him on the neck. He had problems getting into races because he was balloted out.
Why should i aspire to own a better horse than him? Yeah, it must be nice owning a horse that can win you £15,000 instead £1,500 but to be honest, I wouldn’t have swaped my year owning that horse for owning a classier animal.
Mr Johnston doesn’t seem to have a grasp on what all owners want. I don’t either, but then, i don’t go around saying that people shouldn’t be owning the likes of Democracy.
The field sizes of rated stakes are not at all convincing. Generally, races over 10 furlongs seem to consist of about 6 or so runners. So you get a silly pace and possibly a false result to go with it. How is this better for racing?
I would suggest that TRF members could consider ways of improving racing, as the BHB are very interested. This is a subject that will undoubtedly pop up again as TRF own Amelia, a sprint handicapper.
PR, i still persist that the Galileo Derby was average. But in saying that, i believe (as said last year) that’s he’s a very good horse, just perhaps not the all time champion that people were saying. I think Galileo would have won this year’s King George and yes, Golan’s boosted Galileo’s form nicely.
I tend to side with 12f being Nayef’s best distance and he seems happy on most ground but i think you are right in that good/fast ground suits him best.
DM: I think Nayef ran to about GII standard in Dubai. no matter what the trainer of Boreal says, it’s clear that (when looking at Boreal’s form) he has performed at his best on soft ground. The ground in Dubai and in the King George wouldn’t have suited him nearly as well as soft ground. If it’s soft in the Arc, he could surprise a few people as long as his confidence isn’t too hurt after Saturday.
Nope, still not changing my view on Nayef just yet. I don’t think he could handle an on form Sakhee or (from the recent past) Galileo, Fantastic Light and Sinndar (why oh why didn’t they let him race as a 4yo!)
I think Nayef can get placed in true G1’s but win them? I’m not so sure. He’s going to have to prove he can beat real good horses that are of the highest standard.
Like i’ve said, i’m just going on what’s happened on the track. Like with Hawk Wing, on what he’s done, he can’t be called a superstar etc. Now, i’m not saying he won’t go on to be the winner of the Juddmonte but i find it hard to call him a "great" horse.
Nayef’s a good horse but he’d have trouble coping with some of the better G1 races/horses of recent times. For instance, i think he’d have to go some to beat Giant’s Causeway over 10f and Kalanisi too. Nayef (on the way i look at the form anyway) hasn’t actually won a "true" G1 yet so i’m not going to call him a true G1 horse. When he does that, i’ll be on here giving him credit in the right places! :)
131 is 1lb lower than last year’s King George winner Galileo. But Galileo has already beaten Golan by 3.5l’s and 8l’s! Yes, Golan’s improved but to the point where he could run Galileo to about half a length?
DM: We will never agree on this :)
Nayef, as a 2yo, looked high class…as he’s proven himself to be. Let’s skip his early 3yo career, it all went wrong there i think but plenty kept faith (connections and myself, yes, i’m actually a big fan of this horse!)
His three wins in G3 company are not really important in terms of form. He beat listed horses at best in differing conditions. He had no trouble going from the front and perhaps his best win was in the Cumberland Lodge, a brave beating of Sagittarius (who, for the record, has since finished second in the Ormonde stakes).
On to G1 win number one…
The Champion stakes. <br>PM said that Nayef didn’t even have to improve to win this G1…despite the fact he was "stepping up" 2 grades. But in all honesty, this was a poor G1. Tobougg has since been beaten in the Sventon stakes (listed race) by Highdown. He was a very good 2yo but he’s been inconsistent as a 3/4yo and has never reached the heights people thought he would reach (including myself), despite a good run in the Derby. Indian Creek…well, what do we make of him? G1 horse? No. He must have good to firm ground but ran above himself here on g/s. Using Hawkeye as a guide to Indian Creeks run would be fair i think…Hawkeye’s been beaten four times since, in Hong Kong G1’s (including 8l’s behind Grandera) and in a listed race at Sandown.
This Champion stakes was G1 in name only. It was a G3. So i’m not going to count this as a G1 if you don’t mind, because it was clearly not one.
So, on to Dubai, the Sheema Classic.
According to PM (normally a trustworthy source, although sometimes goes a little overboard) Nayef ran to a 121, 2lbs below his Champion stakes win. So that already casts a doubt over the form as actually being WORSE than the Champion stakes.
I actually don’t buy this, i’d call this Sheema Classic a G1 in name only, but a bit better than the Champion stakes. Helene Vitality (2nd) ran a huge race having been regularly stuffed in G1’s at Sha Tin. In no way am i buying that she could have finished 2l’s behind Nayef in the King George as she did here, and i’m sure you wouldn’t either.
3rd, Boreal. Now, here’s a piece of G1 form. He won the Coronation Cup since. But we can quickly see why he didn’t beat Nayef in Dubai. The ground was good. It is patently obvious to everyone that this horse must have soft ground. So Boreal couldn’t shine on good ground and anyway, he’s improved since and is clearly a better horse than he was in March.
Marienbard (4th). A GII winner since, making this form look better. He actually ran 5lbs below his GII winning form, making this run a little below par. He’d also run to a 118 (116 in Dubai) so it was obvious he didn’t quite run to his best. Nayef beat him 2.25 lengths, a good win.
I’m going to call the Sheema Classic a GII/GIII…it was a decent race, but not one i’d want to call a G1. ÂÂÂ
(Before anyone says, i’m aware that Marienbard won a G1 yesterday. But beating Yavana’s Pace by 1.25l’s doesn’t inspire me to call that G1 form either.)
Nayef then ran in the Tatts Gold Cup but i’ll forget that as he wasn’t right. He was sweating a bit and just didn’t seem right.
Then the Prince Of Wales. Again, below form, although had he run to his best he still would have finished around 3l’s behind Grandera.
Then the King George. And BANG he runs 8lb’s better (according to Postmark) than he’s ever run before. According to Postmark, Zindabad ran 1lb BETTER than his Hardwicke victory.
Ok, let’s take in a rather important person’s view on the race. Mark Johnston confessed to being a little "dissapointed" with Zindabad’s run. Why? Because they really felt he was up to standard.
But let’s not be hasty, look at the early part of the race. The jockeys all agreed that the pace was very fast. The pacemakers being beaten a distance behind BOREAL backs that up. They were beaten a long, long way. Boreal was in turn beaten 23l’s.
Zindabad’s been given credit for his run, but not the kind i think he deserves. I think he ran a superb race. Why? Because he went just off that early pace and ran very fast for a long way. It was clear that stamina and pure guts saw him to the line and in my view he’s one of the toughest Group horses currently in training. But<br>he ran below form and the same goes for Storming Home. So PM’s rating of 131? I find this incomprehensible (but then my reading of the form is different to there’s).
I’ve got no doubt Nayef’s improved to run 2nd here, but i do doubt him being able to finish 1/2 length behind Galileo over 1m4f, same goes for Golan. Aquarelliste beat Golan a length in last year’s Arc, this time she was beaten 5l’s, she didn’t run up to her best either, although she did run well. I agree with PR that her stamina gave out on the stiffer course.
<br>All i’m basing my writings on is what has happened on the racecourse. And i don’t see how Nayef’s G1 wins were up to standard.
Quick word about Golan, i do think he’s a good horse (so is Nayef) but i’m unconvinced about the form of his two G1 wins. Personally, i do think he could run very close in the Arc but he’ll have to improve. Nayef will too.
I could talk all day about form, i love reading it so much. I love ratings too and i think discussions like this are brilliant.
Oh, and Grandera, well, not sure what happened. They were kicking up the ground in parts of the race and the straight course was probably faster but, on thinking about it, Grandera just looked too hyped before the race.
One last thing (just to show you all that i’m not totally dim :) ) …I firmly believe Sakhee to be a true G1 horse ("thank god for that" i hear you say…)
Boreal has not run anywhere near his Coronation form. I could go into great detail about Nayef’s G1 form but right now i won’t. Take a look at it…he beat Tobougg in the Champion stakes. He beat Boreal in Dubai (good ground was too quick for Boreal that day) and Boreal has since run to a higher mark.
Anyway, i look forward to a debate on this…as for not liking the result, i just felt that if Golan won it’d be a dissapointing renewal in terms of form, so i’m dissapointed in that respect. In terms of the emotial aspect of Golan’s win, i’m really pleased he won and it was a thrilling finish…but in terms of form, i’m dissapointed.
Well, here i go again…
Did anyone see the early stages of the King George? Did anyone see the early pace? Did anyone notice that Zindabad was right up with it?
That poor animal ran a superb race given that he had to race so fast early on! Zindabad won’t win a decent G1 in this country unless he improves, he was brave here and it seems harsh to call Golan and Nayef’s beating of him solid form because they didn’t have to do what he did early on.
Grandera’s won over 1m 3f, stamina was only a minor concern today and he was beaten along way out. I get the feeling he was on an off day but i tend to agree with the theory that the ground was a bit overwatered.
Anyway, i’m going to study the ratings for this race…Postmark will invariably go high for a G1. They usually do but i’m finding it hard to believe Zindabad ran to form…along with Grandera, Storming Home and Boreal.
Golan’s record first time speaks for itself, so does last year’s form. Granted, he’ll have improved but he’s already been exposed in G1’s, so has Nayef.
DM – i honestly can’t believe that Nayef is a G1 horse…a true one!! Golan might just make it (his Guineas form is terrible and he couldn’t get close to Galileo/Sakhee).
Isn’t it saying something that there are three horses ahead of Golan and Nayef in the Arc betting…High Chaparral, Sakhee and Sulamani. And where were the 3yo’s?
"It’s coming to something when the King George fails to attract a single three-year-old and is also swerved by connections of several of the best older horses in training." – RP analysis.
So where were they? The Eclipse was a walk for Hawk Wing, the King George didn’t have a single 3yo, all the Classics have been won by with Ballydoyle or Godolphin. I think this is a bit of a bad time…and trust me, i’m really pleased Golan won yesterday in terms of the domination thing, but much more so for the Weinstock’s, what a race it must have been for them to watch.
I know 99% of you will take issue with most of my comments (Nayef not being a true G1 horse for example) but i base most of what i say on form, ratings etc, proven tools.
Credit where credit is certainly due, what a finish Golan and Nayef put up for us. These horses do so much for us be them Group One horses or platers, they can thrill us, frustrate us, make us money, lose us money. Wonderful animals that deserve respect and admiration…the trainers and jockeys don’t do a bad job either.
Exciting finish out there today between two good horses. Golan clearly goes well fresh and Nayef is a tough horse (i, like many, have followed him since his first race so it’s nice to see him doing well).
Rory, it wasn’t a great race in terms of form. But in terms of watchability (is that spelt right? is that a word?) it was good fun. Shame Galileo isn’t still about or that Sakhee couldn’t run (not sure why…the ground didn’t exactly look like it was seriously firm).
Grandera? Well, he didn’t pick up. He was always Godolphin’s second choice (Dettori having said after the Prince Of Wales "fast ground, strong run 10f" or words to that effect). But he did look below form and he was hyper before the race. Zindabad? Ran well again but he must have been affected by trying to stick with the pacemakers.
I’ll be honest now, i’m really looking forward to seeing Hawk Wing again! Perhaps he would have been happy on that ground today. I’m pretty sure he’d have lasted 12f and i’d say he could have beaten that lot. Anyone that read the thread on Hawk Wing a while ago will have seen that – on what he’s done so far – he can hardly be called a great. But his form was good enough to win this i reckon…or at least have been in that battle.
If Golan wins it’ll be a dissapointment. A big one.
Firstly, let me say that i think Golan is a good horse. But secondly i’d like to say that in 4 runs over 12f in G1 company he’s been beaten 4 times.
Derby: <br>Golan comfortably beaten 2nd by Galileo (3.5l’s) on g/f ground.
Irish Derby: <br>Golan well beaten 3rd (8l’s) behind Galileo on yielding.
Arc: <br>Golan beaten 7l’s by Sakhee on heavy ground, finishing 4th.
Japan Cup: <br>Golan 6th, beaten 4l’s on fast ground.
So his only win over 12f was a G2 where he beat Anabaa Blue by 3/4l. The latter’s only win since was a beating of St Expedit (dual Ormonde stakes winner).
Yet despite all this, Golan has a real chance of winning a G1…a King George! Sorry, but if he wins then this will have to just another average G1. Golan is good but not nearly as good as Sakhee or Galileo of last year.
Golan’s one G1 win was in the 2000 Guineas, beating Tamburlaine. I think that race has been discussed enough with the general conclusion being that it was tosh for a G1.
Where’s Escorial nowadays? He’s usually on the money with these Group One’s.
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Raymondo, Fallon is obliged to ride Golan. Stoute would have decided this i think and it’s a shame but Fallon’s got to do what his boss says, he’s staying loyal to someone he’s had a long term partnership with.
I like Nayef but it’ll be a shame if he’s good enough to win a King George. Godolphin’s record in this is brilliant to whichever of there’s runs ought to go close.
I’m a Boreal fan but fast ground is going to make his task really hard. Zindabad doesn’t have to control a race to win…he’s consistent and loves fast ground. He’ll probably run well and is a likely guide to how good the race is.
Good luck to you if you’re betting!
PR: The form book says ROG could beat Hawk Wing again. You just have to use Aramram as a line. Of course, that’s over a mile only not 10f.
That Eclipse was poor (don’t know about it being the worst ever because i don’t know much about past Eclipse’s).
The second horse was Sholokhov, a G1 winner. But who did he beat to win that G1? Swing Wing, the winner of a class B race at Epsom. Sholokhov is an improving horse but he’s Ballydoyle’s pacemaker. Sure, he could win a G2/G3 but when he’s in G1’s and not being ridden by Kinane, he’s just a pacemaker.
3rd? Equerry. G3 class.
4th and 5th….Imperial Dancer and Indian Creek. Well, Indian Creek was gone on the ground and perhaps wasn’t fit anyway. Imperial Dancer has won a listed race and been 3rd in a G3.
So Hawk Wing (placed in two Classics) was the only G1 horse in the race. Sholokhov is unlikely ever to win a good G1 if he’s being used in the pacemaker role. He’d have to steal it but i don’t think Ballydoyle would let that happen.
Steve, i just presented some facts. Hawk Wing got a 125 (PM) for his 2000 Guineas run. Rock Of Gibraltar got a 126 for his St James Palace run.
I’ve showed you (using PM’s) that Aramram is a guide to the form as he gained 111’s in the 2000 and the St James.
I’ve said that Hawk Wing beat Aramram 5l’s in the 2000, Rock Of Gibraltar beat him 5 3/4l’s in the St James.
This all says that Rock Of Gibraltar (using form) is the better horse out of he and Hawk Wing at one mile. I’m sure HW would win a 10f race between the two because i’m not sure ROG would stay but at a mile, ROG is proven on form as being the better horse.
The reason Hawk Wing was rated higher in the 2000 is because people assumed he’d have won on the other side but future formlines (ie Aramram) say that Rock Of Gibraltar is deservedly rated higher.
Using PM’s again: Over one mile Hawk Wing is 125…Rock Of Gibraltar is 126.
Rock Of Gibraltar improved in winning the Sussex as he gained his best ever Postmark and his best ever topspeed.
I agree, he didn’t improve in the Irish Guineas, but he did in the St James Palace. (Postmark’s are reliable, as you’ve said, and i’m happy to use them as a guide. The figures i use suggest the same, that Rock Of Gibraltar can beat Hawk Wing over a mile.)
2000 Guineas:
Hawk Wing beat Aramram by 5 lengths. Aramram was racing on the same side as Hawk Wing and was at a disadvantage too. Aramram’s PM was 111.
St James Palace:
No draw bias here. PM rates Aramram 111 (his Guineas form) yet Rock Of Gibraltar beats Aramram by 5.75l’s, getting a rating of 126.
Rock Of Gibraltar has done more than Hawk Wing…he’s beaten Aramram by a .75l’s further than Hawk Wing did.
Now you can talk all day about the draw bias, but Rock Of Gibraltar’s proven himself as the top miler in winning the Guineas and improving to win the St James Palace.
I was sceptical of ROG after the Guineas win AND after the Irish Guineas (as it was an average field). But now i’m convinced about ROG as he’s shown what he can do on the form book.
Hawk Wing hasn’t. Which is why i’m yet to be convinced. Like i’ve been saying, Hawk Wing might go on to great things but as yet he hasn’t and that’s what my argument is about.
Best 8f horse? Rock Of Gibraltar.
That’s using the form book.
Steve, Sakhee winning the Arc pleased me. Watching Giant’s Causeway winning pleased me. Watching a tight finish in a selling plate pleases me. Watching racing on the sand pleases me. Watching High Chaparral pleases me.
But when it comes down to form i can’t be phased by style and by what might happen in the future. I was when watching the 2000 Guineas and overrated Hawk Wing because of it, his Derby performance has been his best for me.
Hawk Wing’s a good horse, he’s been second in two Classics and won two Group One’s. But that doesn’t neccessarily mean he’s a great/champion. Maybe he will be in the future but all i’m saying is that right now he’s not. High Chaparral is the best 3yo that i’ve seen over all distances.
Hawk Wing is an exciting prospect and it’s really good to watch class horses like him. But when it comes down to form i’m not interested in what could happen on fast ground, just what has happened so far.
MH: I find it hard to believe that Hawk Wing could win a July Cup over 6f and a St Leger over 1m 6f. That would involved a quite brilliant mix of pace and stamina that i’m not sure this good horse has. He’s got pace over a mile but in my view found it too short at Newmarket. He seems to be showing that 10f is his favourite trip.
Steve, i’m being led to believe that this horse is a champion, a superstar and a great!
Hawk Wing has finished second in the 2000 Guineas and second in the Derby. There’s no doubt that he’s a good horse and his record shows that!
But the Eclipse was average. Graveyard for 3yo’s? Yes maybe so. But which older horse was going to beat him this year?
Equerry is a G3 horse on form, Indian Creek was never even travelling, Imperial Dancer has won a listed race and been third in a G3…who was second? Sholokhov…a 3yo.
Hawk Wing was a class above his older rivals in that race and a class above Sholokhov as well.
O’Brien said that Hawk Wing could win a triple crown and that he’s the kind of horse you could run in a July Cup.
Now THAT is the hype i’m talking about. Hawk Wing is a good horse, no question. But he’s not the best 3yo in training and therefore can not be called a champion, great, superstar etc etc.
High Chaparral could have won that Eclipse and Hawk Wing winning it proves little.
Like i said, Hawk Wing could go on to be the best 3yo this year and a true champion but right now he’s NOT this champion people talk about.
To be the best surely he has to beat older horses like Sakhee rather than older horses like Imperial Dancer (who is decent but not G1 class like the Arc winner).
I’m sure Hawk Wing was disadvantaged MH.
But whose to say he would have got by Rock Of Gibraltar had he been on the other side of the track?
Postmarks highest rating for ROG over a mile 126, highest for Hawk Wing 125. It’s bloody close but if they ran to form, ROG would shade it.
Mesh made the point: Hawk Wing is not YET this champion horse people are talking about.
Yes, he may well live up to the hype. He’s done well so far and i credit the horse for that, but he’s not a great at the moment.
My argument is that Hawk Wing has NOT YET PROVEN up to the hype. I haven’t said he won’t, just that he hasn’t yet.
As for HW’s attitude, that’s just a hunch some people have. There’s no proof to back up our hunches because that’s what they are, hunches. I’m not sure about his temperament and i look forward to seeing him in a battle. If he wins, then i will apologise to the horse.
But my main argument is like i said, Hawk Wing is not yet this great wonderhorse. He’s good, but he’s not great…who knows if he will be, that’s for the future.
Steve, i’d have to call those Guineas ratings in to question. I too went along with the theory that Hawk Wing would have won if drawn on the same side as ROG. But i’m not so sure now.
Hawk Wing finished 5l’s clear of Aramram in the 2000. ROG finished 5 and a neck clear of Aramram. Now we can say Aramram was at a disadvantage as he was on the wrong side that day. But what’s happened since?
Aramram has taken on ROG again. And the result? ROG beat Aramram by 5.75l’s at Ascot.
Postmark reckoned that Aramram ran to his exact Guineas form in the St James Palace.
So what does this mean? It means Hawk Wing has beaten Aramram 5l’s and ROG has beaten Aramram by 5l’s and a neck AND 5.75l’s. It’s all very close, but if ROG and HW ran against each other again over a mile, i’d want to be on ROG.
I believe that the handicappers (i do my own ratings so i include myself in this) made a mistake in rating Hawk Wing above ROG in the 2000.
ROG is now rated above HW (by Postmark) over a mile, they are 126 and 125 respectively. I think Postmark’s brought things into line by doing that and Aramram was used as a guide.
(Hawk Wing might finish top of the three Ballydoyle horses at the end of the season but judged on what i’ve seen so far, he’s not top of them now.)
HAWK WING: Clearly a good horse, although not as good as High Chaparral and not as good as Rock Of Gibraltar over a mile. Why? Because High Chaparral beat him in the Derby and Rock Of Gibraltar beat him in the Guineas. To be better than them he’ll have to prove it by beating them or by blowing away a decent field on his "favoured" fast ground.
I am scepticle as his last two runs have been good and both were on softer going. He didn’t look to be struggling on the ground and we’re taking other people’s word for it. Although, i think he’ll prove better on fast ground personally.
If Hawk Wing came up against ROG over a mile, i’d go for ROG (as he holds that Guineas win over HW) and if HW came up against HC over 12f, the choice would be HC, because he outstayed/outbattled HW in the Derby.
Right now Hawk Wing has not shown us (on the course) that he’s one of the greats. If Sholokhov’s a reliable guide, HC hold HW on form as HC has beaten HW and beaten Sholokhov by 3.5l’s whislt HW has beaten Sholokhov by 2.5l’s.
Hawk Wing has to PROVE he’s the best.
Others from the Eclipse,
Sholokhov…improving horse. But is a pacemaker for Ballydoyle. When he gets the chance as first choice i’m sure he could win a Group race in the UK/Ire but he’s a pacemaker right now.
Equerry…not G1 standard on Saturday’s run. He was soundly beaten and i don’t see any evidence that he’s anything better than G3 yet.
Imperial Dancer…beat Island House in a listed race at Goodwood and has not proved he’s Group class. He’s no G1 horse. He may win a minor G3 but listed races are the place for him judged on winning form.
Indian Creek…record on g/f ground: 1112. Enough said.
There’s no way Hawk Wing – judged on racecourse form – is as good as High Chaparral, or Rock Of Gibraltar. People can talk all day about the disadvantage Hawk Wing had at Newmarket but the fact is he was second to ROG.
Hawk Wing has to PROVE it. I’m not neccessarily saying he won’t prove his class in the long run but i am saying he hasn’t proved it yet.
