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What more were you expecting rob? He is virtually the top rated 3-y-o in training and unlike his cotemporaries has beaten the older horses in a Group 1 (when the Eclipse is a graveyard for 3-y-os). And he will go on from here. If this is not living up to the hype what is?
I couldn’t agree more MH. Dancing Brave and El Gran Senor are very comparable horses to Hawk Wing.<br>
Steve, i’m being led to believe that this horse is a champion, a superstar and a great!
Hawk Wing has finished second in the 2000 Guineas and second in the Derby. There’s no doubt that he’s a good horse and his record shows that!
But the Eclipse was average. Graveyard for 3yo’s? Yes maybe so. But which older horse was going to beat him this year?
Equerry is a G3 horse on form, Indian Creek was never even travelling, Imperial Dancer has won a listed race and been third in a G3…who was second? Sholokhov…a 3yo.
Hawk Wing was a class above his older rivals in that race and a class above Sholokhov as well.
O’Brien said that Hawk Wing could win a triple crown and that he’s the kind of horse you could run in a July Cup.
Now THAT is the hype i’m talking about. Hawk Wing is a good horse, no question. But he’s not the best 3yo in training and therefore can not be called a champion, great, superstar etc etc.
High Chaparral could have won that Eclipse and Hawk Wing winning it proves little.
Like i said, Hawk Wing could go on to be the best 3yo this year and a true champion but right now he’s NOT this champion people talk about.
To be the best surely he has to beat older horses like Sakhee rather than older horses like Imperial Dancer (who is decent but not G1 class like the Arc winner).
All I can say rob is that you are difficult to please. Hopefully he will get his chance to impress you at some stage later this season.
i think the hyoe about this horse stemmed from last years claims or rumours that there was a O’Brien 2yo better than Johannesburg. That it hadnt run abroad also probably added a bit of spice to the expectation. I havent been let down by the horse in this manner. I think that in an ordinary year , his class would have seen him home in the derby, 12lengths clear of many others – who beforehand would handle the track better, handle teh ground better, stay further, etc. He was in a different class to those. He simply met one a bit better than him over that distance on the day.
He probably wouldnt stay the leger trip, but his class would see him close. The coolmore stranghold over 3yo could set up the race for him. I dont think that there is any doubt that he would start favorite for the July Cup if he was to run tomorrow. I know who id choose between him, Malhub, landseer and the top of the sprinting division at the moment. I dont think that O’Brien was as outlandish in saying what he did. This horse is classy. Pick holes all you want in the form, he didnt win any classics after all, but he is still the horse that excites me most this season. High chapparal could be exceptional also.
Steve, Sakhee winning the Arc pleased me. Watching Giant’s Causeway winning pleased me. Watching a tight finish in a selling plate pleases me. Watching racing on the sand pleases me. Watching High Chaparral pleases me.
But when it comes down to form i can’t be phased by style and by what might happen in the future. I was when watching the 2000 Guineas and overrated Hawk Wing because of it, his Derby performance has been his best for me.
Hawk Wing’s a good horse, he’s been second in two Classics and won two Group One’s. But that doesn’t neccessarily mean he’s a great/champion. Maybe he will be in the future but all i’m saying is that right now he’s not. High Chaparral is the best 3yo that i’ve seen over all distances.
Hawk Wing is an exciting prospect and it’s really good to watch class horses like him. But when it comes down to form i’m not interested in what could happen on fast ground, just what has happened so far.
MH: I find it hard to believe that Hawk Wing could win a July Cup over 6f and a St Leger over 1m 6f. That would involved a quite brilliant mix of pace and stamina that i’m not sure this good horse has. He’s got pace over a mile but in my view found it too short at Newmarket. He seems to be showing that 10f is his favourite trip.
Fair enough rob. It’s your loss. I think there’s a good chance he will prove better than any of those you have mentioned, and I find that very exciting.
Most of us can tell who’s decent after they have done it, it takes rather more ability to spot it before they have.
You see I don’t believe the quality of this horse is hype Escorial and I certainly haven’t been taken in by it. I have the evidence of my own eyes.
When he won the National Stakes I knew I had seen one of the very best performances from a 2-y-o in my lifetime. Every bit as good as Mill Reef or Arazi or Hector Protector or Fasliyev. He remains a thrilling horse of seemingly unlimited potential.
His Guineas performance was exilerating and so far in excess of what ROG would have been able to achieve if the stall positions had been reversed it isn’t worth talking about.
I’m just sorry you can’t see it.
I quote Escorial: "Just for one second, imagine A O’B had not said a word about how much of a monster this horse is supposed to be."
This for me is the key.
If Aidan had said nothing, we’d almost certainly now be giving Hawk Wing considerably more credit than he’s getting.
If he hadn’t been hyped:
We’d almost certainly be full of admiration for the colt’s versatility.
We’d almost certainly allow ourselves to believe the truth that he’s been genuinely unlucky.
ROG is a brilliant miler but no-one is suggesting he could go 12f.
High Chap is a relentlessly powerful galloper over 12f but no-one is suggesting he could step back to a mile.
A O’B did speak out about his excitement for Hawk Wing and now he wishes he hadn’t. And I don’t blame him because it has tainted the way the public perceive the horse.
My own view lies somewhere between Escorial’s and Steve’s. I am still very excited about the horse, but am not yet ready to proclaim him. If he goes to York let’s hope the ground is fast and the opposition top drawer.
About your last two points, Escorial:
(1) If I remember rightly, Michael Tabor was asked to identify the most exciting horse in his ownership. So I think we can forgive him for not mentioning Hawk Wing.
(2) Is it true that the O’Brien yard believed ROG was superior to Hawk Wing before the Guineas? Has Mick Kinane said which colt he would have ridden?<br>
Steve – I know HW is class and quality but it all brings me back to the days of Alhaarth, and the hype surrounding him and when Beauchamp King beat him in the 96 Craven everyone was gobsmacked. He was still a creditable performer thereafter but was not the wonder horse.
I can understand why HW is so hyped, more so than ROG. He is more imposing, and his speed shown in the National Stakes and the Guineas, I suppose was more breathtaking than ROGs turn of foot.
But I entirely agree with Robgomm. HW has yet to convince me he is THE ONE.
Even if he wins well in the Autumn I want to see him next year. He can prove it.
Just hasn’t yet.
Save the fulfilled-hype party for later in case you eat your words.
Escorial – Do you think that the ground on the far side rails on guineas days was the same as that on which HW ran on?
<br>there was a clear draw bias in every race on guineas day
just as there is now at the july meeting
how can u when comparing horses ignore the draw factor especially when evidence in other races on the card point to one
Escorial, you are extremely adept, even delight at accepting hunches as facts, even when they are not the most obvious hunches. I think he chased down ROG in the style of a most willing horse at Newmarket. To me it was teh effort of an unlucky horse. If you accept that there was a draw bias then it follows that HW was unlucky not to beat ROG. Unless you accept your hunch that he is soft as fact.
I’ve said all I’m going to say. Now to return to that "filfilled-hype party"? whatever that might mean.
I still fail to see how the best horse in training at 8-10f (on what he has already achieved) can be hyped, however.
AOB has talked a lot of nonsense about the horse in relation to his stamina potential. Doing a U-turn on earmarking him for the St Leger as the culmination of a triple crown bid, to eyeing him for the July Cup!
Most of as have known for some months that his stamina range is 8-10f and that is the range in which he will record his best performances.
However, in terms of absolute ability I don’t see how it is possible to hype him, unless O’Brien has been talking about him walking across the Irish Sea next time.<br>
2000 Guineas:
Hawk Wing beat Aramram by 5 lengths. Aramram was racing on the same side as Hawk Wing and was at a disadvantage too. Aramram’s PM was 111.
St James Palace:
No draw bias here. PM rates Aramram 111 (his Guineas form) yet Rock Of Gibraltar beats Aramram by 5.75l’s, getting a rating of 126.
Rock Of Gibraltar has done more than Hawk Wing…he’s beaten Aramram by a .75l’s further than Hawk Wing did.
Now you can talk all day about the draw bias, but Rock Of Gibraltar’s proven himself as the top miler in winning the Guineas and improving to win the St James Palace.
I was sceptical of ROG after the Guineas win AND after the Irish Guineas (as it was an average field). But now i’m convinced about ROG as he’s shown what he can do on the form book.
Hawk Wing hasn’t. Which is why i’m yet to be convinced. Like i’ve been saying, Hawk Wing might go on to great things but as yet he hasn’t and that’s what my argument is about.
Best 8f horse? Rock Of Gibraltar.
That’s using the form book.
Hawk Wing is rated above ROG on his Guineas run by Postmark, Timeform and the Official handicapper and ROG has not improved in his Irish or Ascot performances.
I realise it may be difficult for some people to accept as ROG has actually beaten him (twice), but that’s how things stand.
And I really don’t want to sound patronising in saying that to anyone with an eye it should be obvious what the sectional times and ratings are telling us.
But if you have another opinion fine, just don’t assume that anyone with an alternative view has been seduced by hype if it differs from your own.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. It will be that pudding rather than my words that I shall be feasting on next time he appears.<br>
Steve, i just presented some facts. Hawk Wing got a 125 (PM) for his 2000 Guineas run. Rock Of Gibraltar got a 126 for his St James Palace run.
I’ve showed you (using PM’s) that Aramram is a guide to the form as he gained 111’s in the 2000 and the St James.
I’ve said that Hawk Wing beat Aramram 5l’s in the 2000, Rock Of Gibraltar beat him 5 3/4l’s in the St James.
This all says that Rock Of Gibraltar (using form) is the better horse out of he and Hawk Wing at one mile. I’m sure HW would win a 10f race between the two because i’m not sure ROG would stay but at a mile, ROG is proven on form as being the better horse.
The reason Hawk Wing was rated higher in the 2000 is because people assumed he’d have won on the other side but future formlines (ie Aramram) say that Rock Of Gibraltar is deservedly rated higher.
Using PM’s again: Over one mile Hawk Wing is 125…Rock Of Gibraltar is 126.
Rock Of Gibraltar improved in winning the Sussex as he gained his best ever Postmark and his best ever topspeed.
I agree, he didn’t improve in the Irish Guineas, but he did in the St James Palace. (Postmark’s are reliable, as you’ve said, and i’m happy to use them as a guide. The figures i use suggest the same, that Rock Of Gibraltar can beat Hawk Wing over a mile.)
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