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I take my hat off to Postmark if they have already rated him for the Sussex, as they have not run the race yet.
It is true that on Post mark ratings ROG managed 123 for the Guineas and 126 for the St James’s Palace. Other rating don’t show an improvement from the Guineas to the St James’s Palace.
However, for the Guineas Hawk Wing achieved 125 by the same rater and 127+ for the Eclipse, which some have said on here was not impressive. as Hawk Wing seems certain to improve for dropping back rather than stepping up, I am confident he is capable of running to 130+ at a mile, a figure that Postmark said he was capable of immediately after the Guineas.<br>
I believe that there was a draw bias on englsih 2k day, that this equated to more than a neck, that Hw was unlucky to lose the race on that basis and is therefore the better horse between the two.
If you accept the draw bias, which you seem to do, then there must be something else that makes you rate ROG ahead of HW, i take this as bottle, which as you say is a hunch. i dont see any other reason why you are so certain that he would beat HW again.
I’m sure that you will disagree that the reason why hw went where he did, was to cover the unheralded pair of King of happiness and naheef. i think O’brien knew where he stood with Rog. Of course some will claim that ROG was there number 1 all along.
Many are already thinking Hawk Wing is the greatest and that the hype has been fulfilled and justified, hence the "fulfilled hype party" (i.e the Press) after HW winning a desperate running of the Eclipse by 3 lengths in clearly workmanlike fashion.
Potential and proof are entirely different at present.
<br>esc
u are ignoring the draw bias by keep stating how rog beat hw and that on that basis will always do so when a clear glance at the form book would tell you or at least indicate to you he had the advantage of a draw bias so it is not a god gifted fact that he will do soagain on a level playing field and if u accept that there was a draw bias that day then it is clear that as there was only small distance between them coming from a disdadvanteged postion it would more likely on alevel playing field hw would come out on top
u keep saying how poor the eclipse was so do we presume that compton admiral and enviromental friend were according to your form book wonder horses??
<br> also u use the jockey bookings to justify your position but when spencers contract with cumani runs out he will be riding full time for either balydoyle or coolmore hence the fact he gets good rides from both teams (remembering moon ballard in the derby beat the no 1 hope of godolphin naheef) so u are reading something into the form that dosnt exist
<br>esc
not trying to claim hw or any other horse is a wonder horse pls do not misunderstand me .
i note your point about having a hunch but i think it is a foundless one as he has not over a trip he is suited to shown anything to indicate a lack of bottle. notwithstanding the fact if he had of raced the same side as rog he probably wouldnt have need to battle rog to beat him you are somewhat stating your hunch as a fact.
i wouldnt read to much into some of tony morris ramblings . whilst woodman may not be the most consistent of sires and some off his offspring can have traits it dosnt mean all of them do. after all boshra sham was no bottler remember her 1000 gns win.
considering he had just run over a further distance than he was bred to and in ground that was not suitable for him the performence in the eclipse is not as bad as you paint i have seen (no dount you have as well) bigger certainties get turned over in these small field "easy races" remember the third horse whilst not being grp 1 standard is well suited by 10f on soft/heavy ground and i as well as no doubt you have seen horses like this take advantage of better horses on soft ground.
<br>esc
for years t morris has been banging a big drum that a sadlers wells horse wouldnt have the ability to win a derby unless it was hock deep in mud despite gallieo winning on firm ground and hc winnign on drying ground and numerous sadlers wells fillies winning the oaks on good and g/f ground he still beats the same drum
and despite the fact that sadlers wells offspring record on g/f is a better precentage than on g/s as we have discussed many times the only time to avoid him is on dirt or in any good class race on heavy ground
i am not sure how any onhe could compile a list of woodmans in the way you say as what is dissapointing to one and what is over expectation to another
as a rule you could well say woodman is a very in and out performer as a sire he has bred a few good winners at the bc meeting and of the bc classic which keeps him going but he does breed an awful lot of low grade horses
i think we are saying the same about equerry in principle
im not a defender of the horse but they do know his best trip but 10f horses can and have won the derby sir ivor benny the dip erhabb there have been a few others as well and dont forget a champion sprinter was placed in derby once
eclipse not the worst ever though
yes a poor july cup
re jockey bookings they worked for you on the day but their was nothing to be made of them i can assure u
oh by the way best of luck with your new career
PR: The form book says ROG could beat Hawk Wing again. You just have to use Aramram as a line. Of course, that’s over a mile only not 10f.
That Eclipse was poor (don’t know about it being the worst ever because i don’t know much about past Eclipse’s).
The second horse was Sholokhov, a G1 winner. But who did he beat to win that G1? Swing Wing, the winner of a class B race at Epsom. Sholokhov is an improving horse but he’s Ballydoyle’s pacemaker. Sure, he could win a G2/G3 but when he’s in G1’s and not being ridden by Kinane, he’s just a pacemaker.
3rd? Equerry. G3 class.
4th and 5th….Imperial Dancer and Indian Creek. Well, Indian Creek was gone on the ground and perhaps wasn’t fit anyway. Imperial Dancer has won a listed race and been 3rd in a G3.
So Hawk Wing (placed in two Classics) was the only G1 horse in the race. Sholokhov is unlikely ever to win a good G1 if he’s being used in the pacemaker role. He’d have to steal it but i don’t think Ballydoyle would let that happen.
<br>robbo
reading the form book for the guineas meeting shows quite clearly there was a draw bias and that rog was on the favoured side regarding the draw bias
using 0.75l to try and compare the 2 via aramram is not such an exact science as u try to make out
aa there is also a draw bias at ascot
bb newmarket is a straight mile ascot isnt
cc ascot is far stiffer than rowley mile
dd were both races run the same????????????
i could go on but any of those reasons can count for 0.75l
the form book shows hw raced on the disadavantged side and still got with in a neck
indian creek may well be better on fast ground but he has run well in grp 1 before on similar ground in last years champion stakes (not a very high class renewal i will be the first to admit)
imperial dancer is rated 114
but after a hard race (in the derby) and on ground not suitable it was not that bad a performence how many times do u see horse losing witht he excuse wrong ground hard race last time…………
lets hope he has a rest until york gets good ground meets some decent opposition in a true run race then we can judge fairly whether he can cut the mustard or not.
but if you look at his races the national stakes the guineas and the derby the accelaeration he showed was the sign of a very horse and he does travel well<br> and his record to date this year 2nd in 2grp1 and one win grp is no disgrace
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