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The bookies cut Leocorno to 12’s to 9’s yesterday, I found that quite odd.
I hope she gets better from her injury.
A bookmaker can refuse to pay out any bet they so wish, you can take your case up to court as its a legal binding contract now, but if it went to court they’d take the view of the bookmaker and you would be paid the 6/1.
Interesting race and probably too interesting for me to make a bet for this race, all horses have form.
If I tried to elimate horses, Sariska I’d probably not be on even with the good reports, what if Bell had the other horses then he’d rave about them too, for a Pivotal colt the dam side you would have to look at and I’d rather trust the pedigree of a horse like Leocorno than Sariska with Highland Gift proving to be a dam that produces class. But she could be good and Bell maybe right after all.
Pachattack is probably not good enough for this also Dancing Wave is probably going to need a 7f head start to ever win this.
The Michael Tabor filly could be absolutly anything, probably better being against her on a betting perspective.
High Heeled has strong form now and really impressed last time out and on form has 2l over Age Of Aquarius, she will be a big danger but the tariner has flagged concerns ove the trip.
So I’m left with the favourite, who has beaten a Guineas 3rd and a strong Oaks trial winner, although she hasn’t ran but Stoute may think she is good enough to take this, althoug the only concern would be is that Leocorno was the main filly Stoute was going to send before her injury although who is too say he would not have run them both.
So I’d go for Stoute’s filly, although too many factors in it for me to part with trusting my money on the race.
Should be a cracker though.
The top 2 in the betting will be up there but there is two horses in with nice value and worth a shout at their current odds.
Arganil – Best priced at 14/1 and he knows how to win having a nice streak, although it was A/W but nonetheless he knows how to win and beat some good horses along the way, if you put a line through the form he probably has to find a length or so to compete but I like his odds for him to do it. EDIT – The trip would be seen a negative imo
Knot In Wood – Best priced at 20/1, I find his price remarkable since he was 3rd to Tax Free and he was 8/1 then, I think he will still battle and a Tote Place maybe the way to go with this fellow, he is consistent enough to be considering.
If it came out firm at Royal Ascot I’d punt on a gamble on Amour Propre after there was concerns on Overdose going on firm, but still it will still be difficult to get anything to beat him.
Good to see more Ante-post support for the flying filly Fleeting spirit today,
its always reassuring when others put their money down too! 9/1 today!Not so reassuring when you will see Overdose and Amour Propre give it a pasting
Did you miss the last race. It’s him that will have to pass Pipedreamer if he goes for home 2 out like he did at Sandown..
John Gosden reckons he wasn’t fully fit and is keen for a rematch.
Unfortunately for them both as you point out they’re not only the two in the race
I probably was harsh saying he would be outclassed but I still can’t see him beating Tartan Beare.
Tartan Bearer was half fit that day too which was mentioned before and not after, the race defintely suited Pipedreamer more than Tartan Bearer, being that slow was always going to let Pipedreamer get a run on him, but still Tartan Bearer was able to turn him over, think this showed the class he has and with Red Rock Canyon running there going to go fast at The Curragh, stamina will take more hold and Tartan Bearer has more strength in this department than Pipedreamer. And if you see Tartan Bearer’s rides all his races are very close, even if you take New Approach out of last years Derby would Tartan Bearer have won by 4.5l over Causal Conquest, I think his laziness would have seen him win by his usual close margin. Another note shame about Tartan Bearer’s tail, dunno if this has any impact in his racing however.
Youmzain and Frozen Fire I think will be the dangers, and at least Frozen Fire would have had a nice blow after his farcical Chester run, I think Pipedreamer would have been a main danger to Paco Boy this Saturday, think he’d go the 1m better, think Gosden may rue this decision if Expresso Star isn’t good enough to get the Lockinge.
Doesn’t really matter how 2nd ran, he was well and truly put in his place by Fame and Glory.
I don’t really think being pessismistic over the race woulld pay dividends here, Fame And Glory looked just as good in winning this as Galileo, High Chapparal and Dylan Thomas, if you remember those races, I’d be more to inclined to take the view Fame and Glory has the potential to go on what those horses achieved.
He looked a real horse in the making last year when he cruised in his maiden without having to work hard, which is when I backed him at Navan last year, he just looked the real deal and he still looks it to me.
6/4 is not a good price, if your on him I’d just rather punt at him for The Derby cause surely he will go 9/4 if he wins The Dante, there are too many horses in the race that is a danger at far better odds.
Redwood and Freemantle are just as likely to win this race at far better odds, not saying Crowded House wont win but he isnt value at now 11/8.
Can’t see Pipedreamer ever getting past him, Tartan Bearer is as good as the field that is against him, think it will be between Campanologist, Tartan Bearer and Frozen Fire and the tough Youmzanin vying for first, Pipedreamer will get outclassed.
Of the Derby contenders so far, (I’ll exlcude Dante runners for now.)
Fame and Glory: The horse has Galileo form going into The Derby which has to be a very good sign, and if 3/1 is available on race day you would have to take it, think he was a surprise to the Ballydoyle team when he cosily beat Authorized’s full brother, went on to win a Group 1 and has won the key Derby trials. He was very impressive on Sunday and could be a breathtaking sight if he travels like that at Epsom.
Sea The Stars: Stunning looking colt, and really laid back, Oxx has got him spot on, he will defintely stay the Epsom trip, surprised people still try to doubt, one moment he doesn’t have the speed to win a Guineas, he wins so that means he can’t win a Derby? He won the Guineas on class and he should be fighting out for 1st place. As a 2 year old Oxx stated he was very weak for a 2yo and hadn’t filled out, as a 3y/o I still think he has plenty of scope and I can only see him improving even more, although his size could be a problem at Epsom
Gan Amhras: I dunno if he can reverse form with the winner at Epsom, the way he looked at Newmarket suggests that the Guineas was his main aim this season, I’d be pretty cautious whether he gets the trip, people say being out of a Darshaan marehe will but she never got 1m4 and she struggled her relatives were mile horses also so backing that you think he will stay he may actually not. I think his best work will be next year at 4 y/o and he should pick up a nice Group race down the line. I could be proved wrong but is he as good as New Approach? Not at this time.
Rip Van Winkle: He didn’t look good phyisically at Newmarket, so I’d think he is better than his 4th suggests, Murtagh seems to like him a lot so maybe he can come on for the run, if you were backing him you’d be disappointed he won’t be having another run, cause I’d think it would do him the world of good. I’d rather see him stay round 1m-1m2f though.
Harbinger: SMS always seems to have a hidden classic gem, last year he nearly had it with Tartan Bearer who was hidden away until he comes and takes the Dante, and hopefully Harbinger can do the same, it is a big ask of course but we will have to see how his next race goes. The worry is he is not going for a big trial cause at least Tartan Bearer went to York.
Age Of Aquarius: I was impressed how this horse refused to lie down, in some ways he runs like Tartan Bearer and maybe as good as the field he is up against, I’d guess he is a lazy colt and only puts in whats required, who ever rides him needs to pinch the rail, he’d have a good chance although he didnt handle Lingfields corner very well which would be a concern.
Masterofthehorse: I think you can tick him off the list, he hasn’t showed anything of note that he can take a Derby especially how good the field is shaping up, he’d be one of those horses that will probably be moved on from Ballydoyle when its all said and done.
Barmy thread.
Longchamp had two Group 1’s and a Group 3 with several home interests.
Leopardstown one Group 2 which was one of the most key trials out there for The Derby and two Group 3’s which featured some good horses.
And between all 3 UK meets the best class race was a Class 3.
ATR got there interests spot on, the best racing was not in the UK that day.
This is the problem with Tartan Bearer if you want to bet on him antepost, any race he shares an entry with Conduit one will be a non runner, Stoute has quoted the Eclipse with Tartan Bearer and The Tattersalls Gold Cup so he’d probably be going to Ireland and then back to Sandown.
Obviously they preparing Conduit for an Arc tilt so you’d think he’d be the one going to Ascot.
I’d want to be on Redwood for this race, thought he was a magnificent price since he is undefeated, would be good for the English to get a contender in, think Crowded House is way too short for a race packed with good horses, I was worried when Spencer had said Delegator was the best horse in the yard. He was very impressive in the RPT though.
Freemantle you’d think would be in for a big shout too.
Very good renewal and one to look forward too.
Hello everyone.
To say nothing has leaped out and you get a winner beating a field by 5l I find a little strange.
Dunno what else you are expecting from Fame and Glory unless you wanted him to double that, you can only put out what is in front of you and he did it easy bar the tail swish when Seamie give him a crack.
If you think the field was weak, then its best to judge on past winners of the race and when you do you will realise how good Fame and Glory’s run was, almost beat the record set in 1990 which was set on firm ground while Fame and Glory did not have firm ground. Some say you train to be first past the post but time is important to asses how good a horse is leading up to The Derby, for me it is anyway.
He will be very hard to beat at Epsom and he isn’t a big horse, dunno where that has came from.
A classy colt, the best from the O’Brien yard thus far and we wait for Thursday to see how good Freemantle and Black Bear Island are.
