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my ratings
139 equino
124 tax free
122 sir gerry
120 hitchens
119 dohasa
115 duff
109 strike the deal
108 hatta fort
108 knot in wood
105 edge closer
102 utmost respect
94 kings apostle
93 arganil
90 captain gerrard
82 intrepid jack
78 rock of rochellethese ratings are not weight related ie equino 15 lbs infront of tax free
max bet equiano to win
Equiano deserves to be favourite as he has won a Group 1, i think Tax Free
is better than ever this year, so will make it tough for the favourite! Sir Gerrard would also worry me as he was mighty impressive as a 2yo over
C/D, i cant see anything else to trouble the first 3 in the betting! If Tax Free
can get this Group 2 under his belt, i would love to see him have a go in the July Cup, but he really will have needed to have improved to win that one!For Hitchens to be supplemented for this has interested me but I’m swaying more towards Knot In Wood (from that line of form) who is a much better horse in big fields like this that he showed LTO.
Sir Gerry just cant get his head in front can he? Will he finish 3rd AGAIN?
Utmost Respect would make a lot more appeal if the ground wasnt as firm as it is yet his run in the Sprint Cup last year behind African Rose was very good considering he hates this kind of ground.
I just wonder whether Equiano will get his head in front of Tax Free this time. The Sprint King himself says that Tax Free is better over the minimum distance and I tend to agree. Equiano needed the run LTO and with the Hills yard in incredible form (have they had a day without a winner in the last 14 days??).
Duff and Arganil are intreguing runners. However, whilst theyve both been in great form over the winter I cant help but feel they may be out of the places here. Arganil’s form is all over the AW and I’d be happier to miss the boat with him rather than risk my money on him FTO on turf this year.
My selection is
Strike The Deal
. Strike The Deal caught my eye last time out when running on gamely in the final part of a 5f race in which Armor Propre won. I have no doubt that if this was run over 6f he would have caught both Hoh Hoh Hoh and Borderlescott.
Conditions will suit Strike The Deal tomorrow and at 9/1 thats my bet for this race
1pt Strike The Deal
1pt E/W Knot In WoodThis could well shape up to be a battle between Tax Free and Equiano again and I’ll side with Equiano if it does. But I’ll be waiting to see if the money arrives for Hitchens before I have a bet. The money usually comes when David Barron has a strong fancy and in Hitchens, he has a horse that might be able to justify it.
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I think David Barron has had one or two gambles go astray in recent weeks, but I was mightily impressed by Hitchens’ victory over Knot In Wood and will happily take him against the front two.
This could well shape up to be a battle between Tax Free and Equiano again and I’ll side with Equiano if it does. But I’ll be waiting to see if the money arrives for Hitchens before I have a bet. The money usually comes when David Barron has a strong fancy and in Hitchens, he has a horse that might be able to justify it.
Hey- surely if you fancy Hitchens on that basis the £14k they put up to supplement him speaks volumes?
Sir Gerry and Strike The deal each way for me. Decent 2yo’s who, as is often the case for sprinters, struggled to land much of a blow in big sprints at 3yo (Sir Gerry still placed in Golden Jubilee mind), and can now progress as 4yo’s.
Happy to take on Tax Free (trip) and Equiano (could improve as 4yo but yet to be convinced by him). Of the others Utmost Respect could be a very good horse, but not on fast ground.
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York has a new surface (On the straight course anyway), and fast ground tomorrow may be akin to Doncaster’s g/f for the Lincoln meeting, and might not inconvenience Utmost Respect as much as elsewhere.
While it may not have enough give for him to win it, I suspect he’ll definitely be in the shake-up.A really good race this, if not perhaps full of real quality for a Group 2.
It will be interesting to see the effect of the draw tomorrow. The stalls are ‘low’ and there haven’t been too many races over 6F with the stalls in that position but I do think that low numbers will be favoured.
I think Equiano may be aided by the ‘1’ draw and think he has more scope for improvement than Tax Free. Of the others, I agree that Strike the Deal will appreciate 6F more than the 5F of the Palace House, though a wee concern for me is that he doesn’t win that often. Another I think will appreciate the 6F rather than 5F is KIng’s Apostle. I’ve already backed him but will probably back the front two as well tomorrow.
Equiano doesn’t look the same horse he did for MDS early last year – may be many reasons for this and I have my own theory on it, he’s not a 6f horse either.
The race seems to me to be chock full of 5f sprinters – Tax Free, Equiano etc. and one of the few who has CD winning form, winning form on the ground, at the trip, in the grade and under the jockey is
Kings Apostle
. I realise he is carrying a penalty but that aside I don’t really see any negatives to him and at a max of 16/1 he’s a great each way bet.
Happy to take on Tax Free (trip) .
Whats the problem with the trip douginho?
Better over 5f, Gord.
The race seems to me to be chock full of 5f sprinters – Tax Free, Equiano
Another one who thinks Tax free is a 5f horse, both these 2 have actually won over 7f! Tax Free has won over C/D and a total of 5 times over 6f! The
trip is no problem!The top 2 in the betting will be up there but there is two horses in with nice value and worth a shout at their current odds.
Arganil – Best priced at 14/1 and he knows how to win having a nice streak, although it was A/W but nonetheless he knows how to win and beat some good horses along the way, if you put a line through the form he probably has to find a length or so to compete but I like his odds for him to do it. EDIT – The trip would be seen a negative imo
Knot In Wood – Best priced at 20/1, I find his price remarkable since he was 3rd to Tax Free and he was 8/1 then, I think he will still battle and a Tote Place maybe the way to go with this fellow, he is consistent enough to be considering.
The race seems to me to be chock full of 5f sprinters – Tax Free, Equiano
Another one who thinks Tax free is a 5f horse, both these 2 have actually won over 7f! Tax Free has won over C/D and a total of 5 times over 6f! The
trip is no problem!TAPK, Tax Free hasnt run over 7f since 2005 let alone win over it!
Theres comments all over the net from Dandy Nicholls saying that this horse is predominantly a 5f sprinter but they will be campaigning him over all the big sprints this year because of his quality LTO.
He may very well have the quality to win this but he’s still in the main a 5f sprinter.
Also, adding on to that – Tax Free’s last win over 6f prior to the Newmarket run was April 2007.
He has only ever been beaten in April once. Read into that what you will, maybe he’s a horse that goes fresh well whilst some of the others in early races need a run?
We’ll see tomorrow!
The race seems to me to be chock full of 5f sprinters – Tax Free, Equiano
Another one who thinks Tax free is a 5f horse, both these 2 have actually won over 7f! Tax Free has won over C/D and a total of 5 times over 6f! The
trip is no problem!Theres a huge difference between 4k races at Madrid and San Sebastian and a Group 2 event at York. All horses will be able to win over any trip – it’s just finding their grade at that distance, Equiano’s best form is most certainly at 5f – IMO he’ll struggle with the distance today.
Tax Free won a Class 4 handicap off 80 as a 3yo – on todays figures (on the basis that he’s the same horse) he had 32lbs in hand that day. He’s not done anything over 7f against decent opposition.
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