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As Lester Piggott said – "Every year people say the 3yo’s are a poor bunch, and every year they are proved wrong".
As Lester Piggott said – "Every year people say the 3yo’s are a poor bunch, and every year they are proved wrong".
Lester has a tendency either to play things down – or in this case, exaggerate.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I believe he is generally correct with this one – every year pre-Derby we get the same old stuff about the 3yo’s not being much cop.
Without wanting to pick on Fist, not having a Shergar / Sea Bird / Mill Reef among them is hardly a worthy criticism of a generation.
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It’s not so much critisism as it is boredom mate. Usually by this time something has jumped out at everyone and is a great talking point.
Rainbow View was the nearest we have come to that but even she ended up disappointing.
Right now without sitting down and thinking about it I can’t remeber of the top of my head what won the 1000 guineas.
Maybe I amasking too much but right now I can’t thiinkof a single horse who has grabbed my imagination.
We have an impressive Racing Post Trophy winner running in the top trial this week.
We have a horse winning the Guineas when supposedly needing the run, now being aimed at the Derby.
We have a horse winning both the Ballysax and Derringstown, easily, under a Group 1 penalty both times.
Add that to the usual unexposed horses / improving trial winners, and i completely fail to see what is ‘uninspiring’ about this years Derby compared to most other years.
I’m backing Monitor Closely in this race. At first read this may sound entirely insane to a few but I think there are a few very valid reasons why he will win this race.
Firstly his form ties in closely ( no pun intended) with 3 of the horses at the front of the betting in Kite Wood, CH and Neeham. On debut last year he ran third to Kite Wood over a mile in soft. He looked extremely green that day and was running on again with Kite Wood having to be pushed out rather vigorously IMO (golden sword back in 5th). So with improvement from first run to second he would have pushed Kite Wood in the Autumn stakes if he had contested it. He then ran behind CH in the tatts millions stepping back in trip which must have been a major negative for such a big strong horse. he finished 3 lengths behind being stopped in his run twice and running green. Arguably he should have finished 3rd in possibly the best 2 year old race of the year.
First time out this season he finished a head behind Neeham in the tatts trophy over 10f running green and coming late. There is an argument that Neeham will improve more from the race than MC but I was there that day and to say he was badly in need of the run was an understatement. Having looked through the speed ratings of that race as well I would say only the 2000 guineas has produced quicker 3 year old ratings this year. The time as well outshines Redwood’s efforts on the same card over a similar distance.
At 25/1 with Stan James I believe he is massive standout value and may just spring a shock.We have an impressive Racing Post Trophy winner running in the top trial this week.
We have a horse winning the Guineas when supposedly needing the run, now being aimed at the Derby.
We have a horse winning both the Ballysax and Derringstown, easily, under a Group 1 penalty both times.
Add that to the usual unexposed horses / improving trial winners, and i completely fail to see what is ‘uninspiring’ about this years Derby compared to most other years.
Because he has been wrong about them…
Agree entirely PC.
They were at it all last year as well (when they took time off from the self congratulations) which was by and large an exceptional season for flat racing.
I’d want to be on Redwood for this race, thought he was a magnificent price since he is undefeated, would be good for the English to get a contender in, think Crowded House is way too short for a race packed with good horses, I was worried when Spencer had said Delegator was the best horse in the yard. He was very impressive in the RPT though.
Freemantle you’d think would be in for a big shout too.
Very good renewal and one to look forward too.
Redriot – your post has made me think, and i’m on Crowded House. I’m wondering if the bookies are automatically short pricing hype horses so people jump on the bandwagon and go for them. 6/4 does seem skinny. He could still be anything.
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6/4 – skinny?
The horse has probably – at this time – achieved more than Motivator (Evens) or Authorized (10/11) had at similar stages of their careers, and is certainly higher rated – and you want more?- Total Posts 17716
Oh come on Reet you can’t say that. You’re quoting AP against SP plus it’s oppostion that dictates price. Motivator was a good horse but his Dante wasn’t at that time regarded like anything approaching a good race. He only had one serious looking opponent and he finished last.
I took 6/4 because we are unlikely with the hype and expectations to get much better, but it’s far from generous with some really nice sorts in the race.
15 possible runners 8 of which won last time out and could be anything, every horse has won at least 1 race. AOB will send the best of 4.
If this cut up to six runners and he only had one to beat he would be 1/2
6/4 is not a good price, if your on him I’d just rather punt at him for The Derby cause surely he will go 9/4 if he wins The Dante, there are too many horses in the race that is a danger at far better odds.
Redwood and Freemantle are just as likely to win this race at far better odds, not saying Crowded House wont win but he isnt value at now 11/8.
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Fist
AP against SP – is Crowded House at all unlikely to run?
I’m sure there were great white hopes against Authorized and Motivator too, but similarly, none had anything like the credentials. Unless there is a truly exceptional horse in the race (unlikely), the only thing to beat him will be the mafia buggering up the pace (again unlikely in what is only a trial).
6/4 may look exceedingly generous, come Thursday morning.I must say I was very impressed with the class shown by sans frontieres in the craven, and he must have a very good chance in this if in the same form.
Crowded House is a horse I have never really been convinced by, IMO he was just the right sort of horse on the day in the RPT as he was a classy 2yo 7f performer in a 2yo 1 mile race on better ground conditions than usual which panned out to suit a classy 2yo 7f performer, and his turn of foot far outweighed the abilities of the more regular sort of RPT horses on the day. Much in the same way as Fantasia’s Nell Gwyn performance was over exagerated by the type of horse she was against the type of horse she was up against relative to the pace of the race.
Have already had a go on Fame and Glory, Gan Amhras and Montaff and am against Crowded House until he can prove my outlook on him wrong.
FWIW Fame And Glory far exeeded my expectations on sunday and looks hard to beat for epsom, Gan Amhras looked brilliant in the guineas and Montaff and Age Of Aquarius were very impressive (despite general analysis of the race) on saturady on ground that wouldnt have suited either.
This looks like the strongest derby in years IMO in terms of likely class that is turning up, most of the other recent years have been single horse races.
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