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I’ll stick with Crowded House. 2 y/o form is proving a bit of a lottery at the minute, but this is one of those horses whereas you’d be gutted if he won and you never backed him at 7’s.
No mares foal at the end of December!
Colin
Yes, as we were saying, there is just a hell of a lot born on Jan1.
A bit like Goldilocks, with some saying Sea The Stars can’t win because he’s got too much speed, and Fame And Glory can’t win because he hasn’t got enough speed . . .
Well here is my look at Cape Cross, the sire of Sea The Stars
Highest RPR
Distance Attained
Horse Damsire [/color:33cubgr6]
Damsire’s Sire’s Flat Stamina Index
124
12f
Ouija Board Welsh Pageant [/color:33cubgr6]
12.5
121
8f
Able One Danehill [/color:33cubgr6]
9.1
118
10f
Russian Cross Dancing brave [/color:33cubgr6]
10.6
117
11f
Halicarnassus Relaunch [/color:33cubgr6]
6
117
10f
Hazyview Woodman [/color:33cubgr6]
9.9
117
9f
Charlie Farnsbarns Grand Lodge [/color:33cubgr6]
9.8
116
8f
Mac Love Elmaamul [/color:33cubgr6]
9.2
116
10f
Crosspeace Danehill [/color:33cubgr6]
9.1
116
12f
Treat Gently In The Wings [/color:33cubgr6]
11.7
115
8f
Sabana Perdida Mr Prospector [/color:33cubgr6]
8.7
114
6f
Confuchias Second Set [/color:33cubgr6]
8.5
114
13f
Mango Daiquiri Arazi [/color:33cubgr6]
9.6
113
9f
Seachange Broad Reach [/color:33cubgr6]
–
113
16f
Rising Cross Nomination [/color:33cubgr6]
7.4
113
12f
Ever bright Vice Regal [/color:33cubgr6]
–
113
8f
Musianna Main Reef [/color:33cubgr6]
9.7
113
12f
Out Of Control Chief’s Crown [/color:33cubgr6]
10.1
113
8f
Recharge Robellino [/color:33cubgr6]
10.2
113
7f
Madid Chief Singer [/color:33cubgr6]
8.7
113
8f
Able Knight Slip Anchor [/color:33cubgr6]
12.5
112
6f
Hatta Fort Barathea [/color:33cubgr6]
9.6
112
9f
Re Barolo irish River [/color:33cubgr6]
9.3
112
10f
Familiar Territory Sunshine Forever [/color:33cubgr6]
14
***[/color:33cubgr6]
1127f
Abbondanza Forty Niner [/color:33cubgr6]
8.1
112
10f
Mikki Street Crested Wave [/color:33cubgr6]
–
111
10f
Cape Amber Rainbow Quest [/color:33cubgr6]
11.1
He’s got at least 3 top ones who stayed 12f+ without being by 12f-type stallions, so I suppose one can’t say that Sea The Stars definitely won’t stay the Derby trip.
( ***[/color:33cubgr6] You might think it a bit odd that an American-bred stallion such as Sunshine Forever has a FSI of 14.0f. The truth is, he is the sire of Jamaican Flight, who won 12 Flat races, including the Pontefract marathon h’cap – see, I knew it was an important and relevant race.
)Of the Derby contenders so far, (I’ll exlcude Dante runners for now.)
Fame and Glory: The horse has Galileo form going into The Derby which has to be a very good sign, and if 3/1 is available on race day you would have to take it, think he was a surprise to the Ballydoyle team when he cosily beat Authorized’s full brother, went on to win a Group 1 and has won the key Derby trials. He was very impressive on Sunday and could be a breathtaking sight if he travels like that at Epsom.
Sea The Stars: Stunning looking colt, and really laid back, Oxx has got him spot on, he will defintely stay the Epsom trip, surprised people still try to doubt, one moment he doesn’t have the speed to win a Guineas, he wins so that means he can’t win a Derby? He won the Guineas on class and he should be fighting out for 1st place. As a 2 year old Oxx stated he was very weak for a 2yo and hadn’t filled out, as a 3y/o I still think he has plenty of scope and I can only see him improving even more, although his size could be a problem at Epsom
Gan Amhras: I dunno if he can reverse form with the winner at Epsom, the way he looked at Newmarket suggests that the Guineas was his main aim this season, I’d be pretty cautious whether he gets the trip, people say being out of a Darshaan marehe will but she never got 1m4 and she struggled her relatives were mile horses also so backing that you think he will stay he may actually not. I think his best work will be next year at 4 y/o and he should pick up a nice Group race down the line. I could be proved wrong but is he as good as New Approach? Not at this time.
Rip Van Winkle: He didn’t look good phyisically at Newmarket, so I’d think he is better than his 4th suggests, Murtagh seems to like him a lot so maybe he can come on for the run, if you were backing him you’d be disappointed he won’t be having another run, cause I’d think it would do him the world of good. I’d rather see him stay round 1m-1m2f though.
Harbinger: SMS always seems to have a hidden classic gem, last year he nearly had it with Tartan Bearer who was hidden away until he comes and takes the Dante, and hopefully Harbinger can do the same, it is a big ask of course but we will have to see how his next race goes. The worry is he is not going for a big trial cause at least Tartan Bearer went to York.
Age Of Aquarius: I was impressed how this horse refused to lie down, in some ways he runs like Tartan Bearer and maybe as good as the field he is up against, I’d guess he is a lazy colt and only puts in whats required, who ever rides him needs to pinch the rail, he’d have a good chance although he didnt handle Lingfields corner very well which would be a concern.
Masterofthehorse: I think you can tick him off the list, he hasn’t showed anything of note that he can take a Derby especially how good the field is shaping up, he’d be one of those horses that will probably be moved on from Ballydoyle when its all said and done.
I would never have guessed Johnny would have deserted Black Bear island
for Freemantle, i would never have guessed that Black bear would be 18 on betfair with Freemantle at 7 for the Dante! When i saw Driving snow
win his maiden last year, the horse i instantly took out the race was Black bear island who finished 2nd, the 3rd horse was Freemantle and the 4th
Sea the Stars! Johnny obviously wanted to stay loyal to Freemantle even though Black bear looked the better long term prospect, Freemantle will win a big race on softer ground! Black Bear should never have been the price he was,the french race he ran in was a farce! today was silky smooth
and the further he goes the better, he was given a supremely confident ride
and as long as night follows day he will be in the first three at Epsom, along with Gan Amrhas! Hype what Hype?One point to note about Sea The Stars…
Prior to him winning/even being entered in the Guineas a lot of people were talking about him as a solid Derby contender.
So what’s all the hoo-har about how he ‘wont stay’ now?
It`s not a case of him not staying, it`s whether or not the step up in trip will bring about any improvement. It might, but it might not. It more likely will with Gan Amhras though. And Mr Bolger was using the Guineas as his trial for the Derby. It`s between him and Fame and Glory for me.
One point to note about Sea The Stars…
Prior to him winning/even being entered in the Guineas a lot of people were talking about him as a solid Derby contender.
So what’s all the hoo-har about how he ‘wont stay’ now?
It’s always the way, people look for holes so they can try to get value although when it comes to the Derby the market is usually spot on, like last year the top 3 in the betting came home in the 1-2-3 and , if Tefilio never missed the Derby, they’dd have probably had the 1-2-3 in that Derby as well.
And this year the top two in the betting look far the strongest candidates imo.
Personally I think Sea The Stars has the class to go on and win The Derby he is a special colt, but I’d be siding with Fame And Glory at the minute.
I have been watching Johnnie getting himself into trouble behind horses this year and have decided that Aidan is now telling him which horses to ride.Also after the Guineas Johnnie stated that in his opinion RVW would not get the Derby trip. Aidan immediately stated that that was a good run and he(RVW) would go straight to the Derby. In other words he,Aidan will make those decisions and not Johnnie. I find a small element of the Kinnane syndrome beginning to emerge with Johnnie now being told what to ride.Also he talks too much. Last year he got Aidan in trouble with the stewards if you remember.After the Dante neither he nor Aidan spoke to the journalists!
I have been watching Johnnie getting himself into trouble behind horses this year and have decided that Aidan is now telling him which horses to ride.Also after the Guineas Johnnie stated that in his opinion RVW would not get the Derby trip. Aidan immediately stated that that was a good run and he(RVW) would go straight to the Derby. In other words he,Aidan will make those decisions and not Johnnie. I find a small element of the Kinnane syndrome beginning to emerge with Johnnie now being told what to ride.Also he talks too much. Last year he got Aidan in trouble with the stewards if you remember.After the Dante neither he nor Aidan spoke to the journalists!
So come on then gents, put your cards on the table and put the visually impressive stuff aside – Whats Aidan’s top 5 chances in order?
1. Freemantle
2. Black Bear Island
3. Fame And Glory
4. Age Of Aquarius
5. Rip Van WinkleSubject to change.
One will find the distance a bit of a stretch, the other will be left wanting more distance at the winning post – and somewhere in this group, one will be just right!
Fame And Glory
The only Montjeu from Ballydoyle with this you would think they would not mess him about,and by some margin the best trialist of not just Ballydoyle but every Derby horse out there, gone the route of every O’Brien Derby winner. Think Sea The Stars is the only danger to him and STS can win imo.
Rip Van Winkle
Going straight to the Derby , there perserverence with him shows they think a lot, and you would think there was massive progression in there, he looks to have the ability and if he can stay his speed can give him a chance of winningg.
Black Bear Island
Already talk he is going back to France to compete in the Classic over here but he deserves his place at Epsom, he was going to go for the Italian Derby at one point but he must have showed enough at home to be given his Dante chance, even with being brother to High Chaparral I still think he is behind Fame and Glory ability wise.
Freemantle
A good run considering it was his forst race in Group company and hasn’t raced in a long time, he maybe considered a better prospect than BBI, it was a brave effort but only behind him cause he failed to win, if he went to Epsom he would be value at 14’s.
Age Of Aquarius
He looked to be beat at Lingfield but he showed guts to battle back, but the form of that race is not working out already with High Heeled’s comprehensive loss, I can’t see him winning myself, would take a ton of progression from that trial to do so.
In my humble opinion Black Bear Island has the best chance at Epsom.
I guess all of the 5 will go to Epsom, However AOB did train under Jim Bolger so when he says Rip Van Winkle goes straight to the Derby….are we sure which Derby
I also think Gan Amhras could do well at Epsom, but until its NRNB I won’t be backing the colt.
In my humble opinion Black Bear Island has the best chance at Epsom.
I guess all of the 5 will go to Epsom, However AOB did train under Jim Bolger so when he says Rip Van Winkle goes straight to the Derby….are we sure which Derby
I also think Gan Amhras could do well at Epsom, but until its NRNB I won’t be backing the colt.
Where I personally dont really fancy RVW for Epsom I think it’s fairly certain that AOB will send him there. If you look at the horses that AOB has sent there before he very much has the profile of the type of horse that AOB usually has as his No1 for epsom.
4th in the guineas makes him very similar in profile to the likes of Eagle Mountain, Horatio Nelson, Oratorio etc, and of course AOB even sent Hawkwing to epsom when he had high chaparral, and think jockeywise Hawkwing was the No1 jockey choice that day too (In actual fact I dont think most of those were in fact first choice jockey bookings, more that the best jockeys were put on them as with them being speedier sorts they would have involved much more precision timing than some of the others).
I wouldnt be 100% surprised if Murtagh "opts" for RVW over Fame And Glory on the day, or if not then I would imagine that RVW will have a decent jockey booking.
IMO RVW looks more of a 1m2f type but one of those won last year (likely to be harder this year IMO, and RVW looks a lesser horse than New Approach -hence not fancying him myself), and from looking at AOBs recent tactics in the derby (with the exception of horatios death) he doesnt appear to see any problem in sending a potential 1m2f horse to epsom (didnt do oratorio any bother).
If you fancy him for it you’ll prob get a better price with some time to go. However IMO I think itis impossible to fancy RVW without fancying Gan Amhras even more.
Cannot find the thread that kicked this thread off. I remember someone on here saying Rip Van Winkle wouldnt get a mile and would turn out to be a sprinter…despite all evidence suggesting otherwise. Interesting to hear his views now?
Its the 2,000 Guineas thread itself Aiden and the quote your thinking of was from The Antepost King.
Slight misquote there Aiden, i shall show you the original one!
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