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Gerald,
I believe that if "Rip Van winkle" started now he still wouldn"t get 11/2m in the Derby! I also believe "Black bear island" "Gan Amhras"
and "Masterofthehorse" will become Derby types!Here"s the original Quote Aiden, i wrote that on dec 14th last year! i would like to know your views now?
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Gerald,
I believe that if "Rip Van winkle" started now he still wouldn"t get 11/2m in the Derby! I also believe "Black bear island" "Gan Amhras"
and "Masterofthehorse" will become Derby types!Here"s the original Quote Aiden, i wrote that on dec 14th last year! i would like to know your views now?
And here’s what you wrote at the beginning of that thread, on Nov 5th:
The easiest race of next years classics to predict goes to the most impressive performance of a 2yo in the Phoenix stakes at the Curragh;
MASTERCRAFTSMAN, Everything about this colt oozes class particularly the ground he covers at the gallop! A stiff mile at Newmarket will suit this unfurnished beast who over the winter should grow into his impressive frame! He handles any ground but ideally wants good going! I can see him hitting the front 2 out having had a blistering 6f pace set by Sea of marmara
and powering clear of his rivals( Art Conneissourand the sprinter Rip van winkle)
Naaqoos has no chance with his fly-leaping style of running! Currently 12/1 is available for Mastercraftsman, take it!t
Good of you to contribute to this thread Reet, if i had the choice of 12/1
for Rip van winkle to win the July Cup, or 12/1 to win the Derby i would have a good e/w bet on him winning the July Cup! Rip van is blessed with
speed and if they let him do a Freemantle he would take some catching!Murray Bell in the SCMP has tracked down the HK owner of Sea The Stars, with interesting snippets as to STS’ breeding background:
http://racing.scmp.com/freeservice/news … 90517c.asp
best regards
wit
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So it’s basically a case of talk b*llocks, cover every angle in multiple threads and then selectively recall to fit, TAPK?
Of the five ‘realistic’ entries O’Brien has, Fame And Glory is the only one I can see making the frame in the Derby. I’m a huge Sea The Stars fan, so am not looking too far past him at the moment, but I really don’t think Ballydoyle have enough quality in their middle-distance lineup.
Rip Van Winkle has been over-hyped, Aqe Of Aquarius was far from impressive at Lingfield, and I have my doubts as to how well Freemantle and Black Bear Island will stay the trip. Throw in the fact that Stately Home was well and truly put in his place by Parthenon at Hamilton on Friday evening and it would seem that O’Brien is throwing as much (of the proverbial) as he can in the hope that some of it sticks.
So it’s basically a case of talk b*llocks, cover every angle in multiple threads and then selectively recall to fit, TAPK?
Sounds like the distinct majority of Aussie punters in a betting shop of a Saturday.
Call every horse in the race, declare half the field as hopeless and the other half as "certs", pick one horse to win at the top of the straight, another halfway down the straight, and then come to the conclusion that the horse steaming down the outside will actually win it after all.
Turn to your mates after the race and show him 3 winning 50p tickets out of the 20 wagered, and consider yourself a "hero".
Good of you to contribute to this thread Reet, if i had the choice of 12/1
for Rip van winkle to win the July Cup, or 12/1 to win the Derby i would have a good e/w bet on him winning the July Cup! Rip van is blessed with
speed and if they let him do a Freemantle he would take some catching!Just admit you were hopelessly wrong on this one! For God sake the horse couldnt keep up with them in the Guineas, only getting going late! The likes of Sal clearly went through his pedigree in detail for you (even though a cursory look at it should have told anyone) but you dismissed it. Weither the horse gets the Derby trip or not has absolutely nothing to do with him being a sprinter….O’Brien (who always puts horses in all types of races) has not even bothered to put RVW in the July Cup or the Golden Jubilee.
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Quote from Fist of Fury 2k8" "I predict Sea of Star will win the 2000 guineas from Delegator with a Jim Bolger’s representatve taking 3rd"
I posted this last year but David deleted the thread
FFs lads give it a miss we all get it wrong sometimes. The next thing we’ll have posts within posts saying you said this countered by you said that.
What’s the big deal about saying something, then changeing your mind when other events have indicated you were off the mark or somethng you see indicates something better has along?
It’s like saying VPU is a certainty to win the QMCC and up pops Master Minded so you switch camps or 98% of racing fans saying Master Minded was a racing certainty at Aintree and finding out later he didn’t stay. Obviously if he ran over 2m4f again the same people would be looking for something to beat him.
Gerald,
I believe that if "Rip Van winkle" started now he still wouldn"t get 11/2m in the Derby! I also believe "Black bear island" "Gan Amhras"
and "Masterofthehorse" will become Derby types!Equitrack, how very dare you suggest i talk B******s, The above thread
has already proved i know more than you! and that was 6 months ago!
before any of the trials! if Rip Van wins the Derby then i have made an
error of judgement, it wont be the 1st time, it wont be the last, until then
i maintain he wont win the Derby, i believe one of my 3 from above will!
You cant call yourself "The Ante-post King" and know jack s**t about horses! Otherwise i would call myself something insignificant like erm
"Equitrack" "Polytrack" "Backtrack"! and my contributions would be just plain dull!The clues are there for everyone to see. Aidan O’Brien’s Derby horses High Chapparal, Galileo both sent the Ballysax / Derrinstown route and so is Fame And Glory. It isn’t a co-incidence. Despite the fact that Fame And Glory "does nothing at home" and Ballydoyle’s insistance that they don’t really know who fits where in the pecking order you can’t tell me that they haven’t considered Fame And Glory their Derby hope for some time. They don’t send their "top class" Derby horses to Chester or York or Lingfield they all go the same route. Not surprisingly Fame And Glory was impressive in the Derrinstown the O’Brien team aren’t stupid they know what they’re doing.
The only horse I can see being a danger is Sea The Stars. This reminds me of the Golan / Galileo issue a few years back – the Guineas winner vs the top class middle distance horse. That day Golan stayed but he just wasn’t as good a horse as Galileo and I suspect it’ll be a similar outcome this time as Sea The Stars Guineas doesn’t appear to be a great one. Even if he stays its possible that he’ll just not be good enough to beat Fame and Glory.
I think there is every chance that Rip Van Winkle, for instance, will stay the mile and a half ; especially as Galileo is his sire – most of whose progeny have proved best at middle distances.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
If Michael Stoute trained Golden Sword would we be writing him off as a Derby prospect? So why are we ignoring his wonderful run at Chester?
Why are we ignoring Masterofthehorse then, Andy? I feel he’s a strong horse too.
Golden Sword is unbeatable on his day but those are few and far between.
I put Masterofthehorse 3rd in my list of AOB entries and more than able to win on June 6th.
Also, Sans Frontieres is out of the Derby. Connections have decided against sending him there.
He will win the Leger. How odd would it be if that dream I had is real??
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Probably because he won’t run in the Derby.
He’s won a Group 3 unexpectedly and being a lesser light AOB will most likely send him to Ascot for the Group 2 King Edward Vii Stakes.
It’s less than 2 weeks after the Derby and Ascot looks taylormade for him.
……it’s no different here, m’boy.
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