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I personally think that RVW and Sea The Stars are only likely to see out the derby if its gd-fm on the day, but personally I hate to see the Derby run on gd-fm, and always bet it for good ground, so am not a fan of either for it.
Thats not to say that it wont come up gd-fm. I remember in 2005 that connections of Motivator and Dubawi said that if they did not water the track to good that they would not run, and so they watered it. However this year I think that STS and RVW need it gd-fm and dont think AOB will call for the track to be watered anyway (not really his thing), and definitely not with RVW as one of his fancies.
On good ground I think Fame And Glory is an absolute cert to run a good race. Was impressed when he won the ballysax but not 100% convinced, however with how he won the Derrinstown, I could just visualise him coming as powerfully up the run in at epsom as Motivator and Authorized (incidentally its another odd numbered year so Montjeu is due to win again, just kidding
). IMO if the ground is good then it will take a good one to beat Fame and Glory.At the same time, there can be no doubting whatsoever that Gan Amhras is something pretty smart and is crying out for the 1m4f trip, is with the master of Galileos, and is probably better suited on pedigree than New Approach, who Bolger trained to win last year. He Handles Gd-fm if it comes up that way, and he is an unknown quantity here.
Crowded House I have never been overly big on, and wasnt a big fan of his RPT win as a derby trial, but he does have some ability, where it wouldnt be the shock of the century if he were to win, I wouldnt be even considering putting any money his way to do so.
Black Bear Island didnt impress me first time out in france, but he has improved and where many have slated his Dante win, I think it will turn out to be a decent piece of form in time, whether its good enough to win this years derby is a different matter though, as it looks a very good year and he doesnt scream to be the winner IMO.
Age Of Aquarius and Montaff, as I have already mentioned I thought were very impressive. Didnt think either would have liked the gd-fm at lingfield, yet both went very well. It is worth remembering that last year at lingfield Look Here (another who didnt really want gd-fm for her trial) was defeated in the lingfield oaks trial on gd-fm before destroying them at epsom on good. Likewise I see both of those horses being far better on a good surface.
I would also expect Drumbeat and Master Of the Horse arent complete mugs either, and havent been seen to best effect as yet.
So in summary my overall thoughts on the derby are, that if it is run on good ground it will be very competetive race. Fame And Glory will come of the turn extremely well and it will take a good one to beat him as think he looks like putting in a 125ish performance on the day. However there are Black Bear Island, Age Of Aquarius, Gan Amhras, Montaff who IMO all look capable of 120+ performances and if they are bang on on the day, handle preliminaries and have everything drop right there is nothing to really stop at least one of them putting in a decent race.
Similarly I think that the likes of Master Of The Horse and Drumbeat havent been seen to best effect either are likely to be 115+ horses on the day. So unlike Motivator and Authorized derbys I think this years will take a considerable bit more winning, and dont expect we’ll see a runaway winner, but it should be a very interesting race in prospect.
Obviously trying to pre empt the ratings for the derby is not an exact science, and it is solely my opinion based on what I have seen however the classics are all about trying to guage improvement and this method has worked for me since I started doing it this way and am hopeful.
Similarly, if it comes up gd-fm at epsom, I think there is still every chance of a decent race, but it will different horses and IMO the guineas will probably be the best place to look for the winner, as STS, RVW and GA all look like wanting at least 1m2f on that surface and as with Sir Percy in 2006 they may just have too much toe for the opposition. Especially with many of the trials having been run on gd-fm and most of the contenders not being that impressive on such conditions. If it was to come up gd-fm then Gan Amhras and RVW would look to be overpriced at their current prices.
IMO though Epsom is not a track that you really want coming up gd-fm, and IMO most of our best Middle distance hosres arent actually bred or actioned for gd-fm, and after watching Horatio Nelson die in 2006 on gd-fm (despite IMO being suited to the surface), I would always rather it is good ground. Likewise I was gutted when Gypsy King died in the Irish Derby on firm ground. IMO this years crop looks to have thrown up some very exciting middle distance prospects from 1m2f to 1m6f and it would be a terrible loss for this season if we were to lose any of the above named horses.
I would rather see a horse defeated at epsom and come back to win something else after a trip review (a la oratorio) than to see any die so am hoping and betting for good ground.
Also, Sans Frontieres is out of the Derby. Connections have decided against sending him there.
He will win the Leger. How odd would it be if that dream I had is real??
OH dear Halfway, I"m afraid i have to dissagree with you, Age of Aquarius
is the winner, take the 10/1 now! it will only end up you having a nightmare!See Racing Post said there would be a douby on Fame And Glory if it was ran on fast ground, but I think he’d improve even more, every race he is been in the ground has got better for him, and on Good we finally seen his turn of foot, on GD-FM I’d think he’d imrpve even more, but also it brings other contenders in.
- Total Posts 17716
Delegator travelled as well in the Guineas as he did in the Craven and, from a time perspective at least, stepped up considerably on that form. It’s fair to assume then that a) the race was as a true test, b) Delegator didn’t fail to stay, c) Sea The Stars had the pace to cope with the runner-up, and d) Sea The Stars had the stamina to assert his authority in the closing stages.
Given his performance at Newmarket, and the fact that he’s related to smart middle-distance animals, why won’t he stay at Epsom? Decent ground should allow him to travel in behind the pace, however strong it may be, and quicken in to contention early enough for his stamina to come to the fore.
The more I look at it, the better Sea The Stars looks.
Delegator travelled as well in the Guineas as he did in the Craven and, from a time perspective at least, stepped up considerably on that form. It’s fair to assume then that a) the race was as a true test, b) Delegator didn’t fail to stay, c) Sea The Stars had the pace to cope with the runner-up, and d) Sea The Stars had the stamina to assert his authority in the closing stages.
Given his performance at Newmarket, and the fact that he’s related to smart middle-distance animals, why won’t he stay at Epsom? Decent ground should allow him to travel in behind the pace, however strong it may be, and quicken in to contention early enough for his stamina to come to the fore.
The more I look at it, the better Sea The Stars looks.
I agree, only soft ground would prevent him having a go at winning it, he is bred to stay imo but just had the class to win, if your as good as Sea The Stars, you have to conisder he has both speed and stamina, Zarkava had both, and there is no reason to doubt this colt has also.
Also I’d like to say he has much of a chance on pedigree to win it as Gan Amhras imo.
Delegator travelled as well in the Guineas as he did in the Craven and, from a time perspective at least, stepped up considerably on that form. It’s fair to assume then that a) the race was as a true test, b) Delegator didn’t fail to stay, c) Sea The Stars had the pace to cope with the runner-up, and d) Sea The Stars had the stamina to assert his authority in the closing stages.
Given his performance at Newmarket, and the fact that he’s related to smart middle-distance animals, why won’t he stay at Epsom? Decent ground should allow him to travel in behind the pace, however strong it may be, and quicken in to contention early enough for his stamina to come to the fore.
The more I look at it, the better Sea The Stars looks.
I agree, only soft ground would prevent him having a go at winning it, he is bred to stay imo but just had the class to win The Guineas, if your as good as Sea The Stars, you have to conisder he has both speed and stamina, Zarkava had both, and there is no reason to doubt this colt has also.
Also I’d like to say he has much of a chance on pedigree to win it as Gan Amhras imo.
I think the horse to take out of this years 2000gns, purely for the Derby
has to beGan Amrhas
Everything about this colt has Derby written all over him! Connections, form, breeding, conformation and he is visually
pleasing to the eye at the gallop! Sea the stars will travel to the 2 pole and
his tank will empty, unfortunately for those who have backed him! Fame and Glory wont handle Epsom and will find it all too overwhelming, i see
a temperament issue in him! Rip Van wont stay simple as that, but he has an awkward head carriage when he comes under pressure!Black Bear island
will be settled well behind, he will handle the course and travel
with supreme ease to the furlong pole, Colm will ask him to challenge
and he will be in the first 3 no question!Masterofthehorse
will be settled in mid division and he too will come with a sweeping run through the field putting it down to my other 2! This will be a cracking race and the winner will be a Class horse! Like i said about the 2000gns, there will be more winners come from that race than people think, it was a Classy renewal this year! By the way "Sea the Stars" will win this years Juddmonte International over 11/4m at york! and "Mastercraftsman" will win
the Irish 2000gns No doubt about it!- Total Posts 17716
I doubt Black Bear Island will stay the trip sufficiently well to win, or even place in, the Derby, but on what basis is Fame And Glory temperamental, why won’t Sea The Stars see out twelve furlongs and what is it about Gan Amhras’s conformation that makes him suited to the demands of Epsom?
I have never been convinced by Gan Amhras, for me he was aimed at the 2000 Guineas all along, but has probably pleased Bolger enough for a crack at some prize money in The Derby, but then again he hasn’t really got another horse for a crack at it.
He is a decent horse who can get a G1 in the future but he won’t be in the same class as Fame And Glory or Sea The Stars.
I’m so disappointed about Sans Frontieres, but at least my Dante bet covered my Derby one. Still looking forward to seeing him run later in the season, but won’t get much of a price on him now whatever he does!
No reason Black Bear Island won’t get the trip. He’s not overly big and well balanced which I think is a plus for an epsom horse.
Gan Amhras and BBI are my two against the field at the moment but only to small stakes. I still have no solid opinions on this but it does look a cracker.
Its not 100% guaranteed that Sea The Stars wont see out the trip, but at the same time I would only fancy him too see it out effectively enough to win if the ground was gd-fm, as he travels well on it and on the top of the ground stamina wont be such an issue.
On good ground he may well stay the trip, and in his favour he is a big horse, but IMO he wont be as potent in the last few furlongs as some of the others. He is related to decent middle distance sorts, but most of them are from more stamina laden sires, and of those that are from shorter in trip sires such as my typhoon (an8-10f horse), and probably his closest relative is cherry hinton, who only managed fifth in the oaks (but in fairness wasnt as classy as STS anyway). This doesnt look an average derby for me, and I think he’ll struggle on good ground. Its not certain he wont stay and he is a very good horse but at his price, it would take balls of steal to back him for a win IMO.
I think the key horse in the derby however is Fame And Glory, because as I have always said Montjeus need a fast pace, and when following them it has sometimes been frustrating when they have been run without pacemakers and caught out on occasions. However IMO AOB has clicked onto this with Fame And Glory and has won a group1 and two important derby trials using those tactics with him.
He knows that if he gives him that fast pace, he will be very hard to beat at epsom, his strength as with most montjeus is not his speed but his ability to travel.
However IMO if it comes up gd-fm it will be virtually impossible to run the race to his advantage and he will have very little chance of justifying his current price, as IMO the guineas 1st, 3rd and 4th all looked like the type to see out 1m4f on a faster surface. IMO RVW would really be the AOB first string on gd-fm.
I disagree with Red Riot that Fame And Glory would be more suited to faster ground because of how he won the Derrinstown. On a fast surface the race would be much more about speed, and if he is indeed not a great worker at home then it must surely be hard to put speed work into him, and also if he is indeed lazy at home then that would explain partly why he was better in the derrinstown as he had a run behind him. However in the Ballysax there did look to be a short time where Bolgers horse might just be able to challenge Fame And Glory for speed.
Gan Amhras IMO just looks like a derby horse both on pedigree and form. He showed all round pace in the Guineas, much like New Approach and but just didnt have the speed of the first and second. He is 50% Galileo, 25% Darshaan and 12.5% Be My Guest, thats plenty of stamina, and when a horse like that runs so well in the guineas there has to be the possibility that he is very classy indeed. New Approach obviously went closer at newmarket than Gan Amhras but it is worth remembering that NAs guineas was on good ground where Gan Amhras’s was on gd-fm, and NA was defeated much easier on gd-fm at the curragh.
Irish 1-2-3 = 5/4
I would take this over the Aidan O’Brien wager. I’d say it is actually the bet of the Derby.
I’m following Mr Seagull in this morning for the 20-1 Freemantle. He’s the best Derby prospect out of the Dante as he’ll travel and hold a position at Epsom where the winner might struggle- not many win in the style of New Approach. The fact that Ladbrokes want to lay him is a positive for me- they’re clueless. Big stamina doubts about the Guineas winner and Fame and Glory possibly overrated- dubious incestuous form!
Following on from an idea by Gerald, I’ve looked at the average winning distance of the sires and damsires progeny since 2000 and added them together (rounding up) to give a total stamina index.
For the last 11 Derby’s no horse with a total index of less than 18 has won and 9 or the last 11 winners had an index of 20 or greater. Sea The Stars total index is
16.22!
Laying him at 4/1 was good business imo.
Sorry about the formatting…..
horse name ….. epsom derby ….. sire name ….. damsire name ….. Sire Index ….. Damsire Index ….. Total Index
High Rise ….. 1998 ….. High Estate ….. High Line ….. 9.2 ….. 10.98 …..21.00
Oath ….. 1999 ….. Fairy King ….. Troy ….. 8.33 ….. 11.60 …..
20.00
Sinndar ….. 2000 ….. Grand Lodge ….. Lashkari ….. 9.38 ….. 11.44 …..
21.00
Galileo ….. 2001 ….. Sadler’s Wells ….. Miswaki ….. 10.77 ….. 8.23 …..
20.00
High Chaparral ….. 2002 ….. Sadler’s Wells ….. Darshaan ….. 10.77 ….. 9.64 …..
21.00
Kris Kin ….. 2003 ….. Kris S ….. Rainbow Quest ….. 10.47 ….. 9.52 …..
20.00
North Light ….. 2004 ….. Danehill ….. Rainbow Quest ….. 8.55 ….. 9.52 …..
19.00
Motivator ….. 2005 ….. Montjeu ….. Gone West ….. 10.76 ….. 8.49 …..
20.00
Sir Percy ….. 2006 ….. Mark Of Esteem ….. Blakeney ….. 8.33 ….. 11.07 …..
20.00
Authorized ….. 2007 ….. Montjeu ….. Saumarez ….. 10.76 ….. 9.22 …..
20.00
New Approach ….. 2008 ….. Galileo ….. Ahonoora ….. 10.22 ….. 7.62 …..
18.00
I’m following Mr Seagull in this morning for the 20-1 Freemantle. He’s the best Derby prospect out of the Dante as he’ll travel and hold a position at Epsom where the winner might struggle-
He sure will Carvills then his stamina will run out at the 2 pole! Very quickly! Black Bear will run past him again, even if he gives him a 10l
lead again!
). IMO if the ground is good then it will take a good one to beat Fame and Glory.
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