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I’ve taken the 25/1 Gord. The turn of foot Townend produced from the horse around the bend impressed me somewhat, I was not aware he had that kind of ability. He’s still an inexperienced horse and I’d say his claims to next years gold cup were only enhanced by the RSA. His wayward jump at the last robbed us of the chance to see how much gas he had left in the tank to tackle the hill and there’s every chance it was fatigue that contributed to the sloppy jump but having seen that turn of foot you’ll certainly not see his next jockey getting after him so early. I’m willing to take a chance on his stamina to get up the hill although he will have plenty to do to hold off that other Bob! Can’t be afraid of one horse though and it remains to see how he will come back from this seasons success.
No zippy, the winner of this race 7 years ago had not previously performed with credit over 3 miles. He did however get weight from over half of his rivals.
Irrespective of that historic glitch, I remain convinced that at championship pace the Ryanair is a race for doubtful 3 milers rather than ambitious 2 milers.
Now dynaste has switched to the jewson I’d say cue card is lay of the meeting. You need a 3miler to win the Ryanair and this fella barely gets 20f. Add the soft ground and his task is hopeless. First lieutenant/menorah forecast for me.
Elliwallach, if you and your wife have registered your accounts with the same home address or IP address you are probably in breach of their bonus terms and conditions. By rights they will be able to claim that any winnings you go on to accrue were won using bonus funds and have the right to claim them all back. Up to you what to do but on this occasion you might do best to withdraw and walk away. Bookies won’t listen to reason on these issues I’m afraid and are rarely interested in discussions or disputes. May be worth contacting them directly to explain before placing a bet, or by all means take your chances.
I don’t see anything setting the race up for a true grinder this year like overturn, so with all eyes on rock on ruby I don’t expect anyone else to commit until between the last two. A turn of foot should be essential this year as no doubt RoR will have taken it up someway out in an effort to repeat last years tactics which goes against zarkandar. Hurricane too short, which despite his poor prep leaves grandouet or binny for me.
BHison2 I’d look at the reason behind the stats. None of the last series of beaten favourites knew they were favourites, so that’s not why they lost! Instead consider that in order for a horse to reach market favouritism in a race like the supremes it would need to have shown a level of form prior to the festival that is the most superior on offer. Therein lies the problem I suspect, one of peaking AT the festival rather than some time before and the possible effects of earlier season form on juveniles.
I think savello was available most of the day at pretty attractive prices on betfair GT, double figures I believe. Nice call though did it well despite the fall of the fav.
Hey Gord,
Question. The centenery has an upper BHA mark limit of 140, isn’t cantlow already in excess of that mark now?THM, I owe you a drink for sure! I was looking for a bet in that race so had a flutter on your suggestions, can’t believe how close the forecast was! Well done sir.
14/1 and 12/1 last night too, belter
Evening all. Grands crus I couldn’t have at the price, I don’t think he is a battler and he’s sure to find plenty here in the rough and tumble of a large field. I actually thought poquelin’s last run at ascot over too long a trip was solid and should have him spot on for this, back at his beloved Cheltenham over his ideal trip and a winnable mark. 25/1 suggests he has been overlooked and is a very attractive EW option given the fragility of the market principles at Cheltenham.
Surely knockara beau warrants consideration for this, as does fruity o Rooney. Portrait king if the surface stays sound.
To blindly apply stats correlated from lesser horses to kauto star is mindless. Judge on his performance this year, along with the likelyhood of age continuing to reduce his talents by all means but there has never been another 12 year old kauto star contest this race previously. Long run is a fundamentally flawed horse, and it’s those jumping and lack of tactical pace flaws that kauto has exploited this season. Can kauto win again over 3m2f? Only a small minded man would say NO. The gamblers amongst us bet on the likelyhood.
