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I wouldn’t think Quito’s Gold Cup bid is dependent on the Hennessy Superman. If he runs a place in the Hennessy he’ll probably still run, as the conditions of the Gold Cup are likely to see the best of him.
A lot of it is guess work THM. This horse, like a few other from G’town comes with some contradictory baggage. Last season the jockey was quoted as saying they didn’t fancy the undulations at Cheltenham, and before that the horse was reported to have been targetting the 4 miler at the festival. Since then he has run over 3m, and 3 of his 4 races have been on courses with undulations, and as i read somewhere, Down Royal has bigger undulations than Cheltenham. We all interpret things differently, and i just think he would have to win, or come close to winning without having a hard race in order for him to actually head there in March. I’m sure you’d agree though, that if things fall into place and he does go, then his price compared to Synchronised’s could be real decent.
I added another tenner on First Lieutenant for the rsa.
I just hope he isn’t re-routed to any one of 4 entries he holds at the festival Graeme,i remember after he won the ‘Neptune’ thinking RSA,RSA,RSA,fingers crossed!
There’s always that possibility Gordon. However as you have pointed out on many occasions, things like that get factored into the price. Given that he won’t be running before March, then i think it’s a fair price for a horse was was quoted by the trainer as heading for the RSA, and who also said the horse is over priced for that particular race. That sort of price makes it easier to back more than one in the same race.
I wasn’t sure what direction to take today for March. After reading up and fidgeting about for ages on end, i went with Quito De La Roque for 40 quid at 25/1 NRNB, and a tenner at 33/1 under AP rules. This bet comes with a bit of a safety net. If he doesn’t win the Hennessy i will get refunded, as he surely won’t turn up. If he does win and win well, then that price might look pretty good. I want a strong pace, and for the horse to finally back up the surrounding talk. I thought he travelled ok like most horses in his last race, and seems to take his fences well enough. He just emptied out too early, so there could be more to it. Time will tell. I added another tenner on First Lieutenant for the rsa.
I agree with Paul. The tories are such generous souls. It’s pretty heart warming to know that they’re so desperate to hang onto a country that costs them so much. All those many billions of pounds that the Scots get subsidised with, yet the tories are almost getting desparate in a bid to save the union. If only the rest of the world had the ethic morality of the tories, we would all be in a better place.
I’m beggining my assault on the RSA chase with a thirty quid bet on First Lieutenant at 20/1. It’s nothing ground breaking, but at that price it gives me a fighting opportunity. He’s one of a few i’ve been keeping my eye on, and it’s also one of these horses that throws up contradictory comments from various sources. For example, DR has always picked this horse and he apparently has first dabs on all of G’towns horses. However, whenever another G’town horse beats First Lieutenant, the trainers always suspected they had the winner of the race anyway. Now we’re i’m in a position where DR has now said he was beaten by the better horse, whilst the trainer is still retaining his faith. Well at 20/1 i’m willing to keep a bit of faith also. He lost a couple of races over hurdles against less than highly rated horses before winning the Neptune. I’m hoping he can once again save his best for March. I’ll have a second horse for this race at some point. I’ll monitor the race.
Good luck. Let’s hope you get a few winners up for yourself. There’s no pressure or anything like that. I just see lays and plays as a better alternative to keeping a note pad on my desktop.
I didn’t have a preference until this season. I now prefer national hunt because of the re-appeareance of the same horses. There are also more ‘characters’ if you could call them that, in national hunt. For example, before Cheltenham you get many trainers and jockeys holding press conferences and knocking back a few shandys. It all sounds and looks like a good bit of banter. I never actually thought about it before this thread was made, but compare the Irish people in the flats to their national hunt contemporaries. I’m in no rush to hear O’Brien say ‘listen listen’, or see trainers with 40 entries in each race.
:shock:
Does seem more of a chance of Synchronised running in Ireland reading that IC, but can’t believe they’d be stupid enough to do it. May be it’s just my racing arrogance. Feel sure Jonjo, Berry and McManus will come around to my position when it matters.
and again!
Imperial Call did try to put me in the right direction.
I was wrong and apologise to team McManus.
Must have been showing a lot more at home than he was last year to go for a 3 mile race on goodish ground.Ah well, can’t get them all right.
Would’ve been a certainty for the Welsh National.
I wouldn’t have a red face over that one mate. Sometimes they just pop out of nowhere and make everyone look like mugs. All too often we all think it’s a ‘two horse race’. How many time has that bit the punters ?
The owners pay the bills and are entitled to put up who they like.
I agree with Cormack. It wouldn’t look good if the owner didn’t put his son on the horse in my opinion. It’s their horse after all. I didn’t see many complaints after he rode it to a KG and GC double last season. I’m all for the punter getting a better deal, but SWC has every right to be the jockey.
Good grief. Ok, it’s time for plan B. Guitar lessons, long hair, a paper cup and a dog with a paw injury. I could do an accoustic version of ace of spades outside of the local supermarket. You know i’m going to lose, and gambling’s for fools, but that’s the way i like it baby, i don’t wannae live forever. I’d even be wiling to glue a cluster of rice krispies to my face for that Ian Kilmister wart effect. I sarcastically remember the days(about 12 months ago) when getting beat twice in a row by the same horse would have the beaten horse pushed out to a reasonable price. How Long Run stays at 5/2 whilst Kauto goes from 12s to 4s 5s is beyond me. The supression of the ante post market for certain races is no use. Anyway, there’s a couple of good races to watch tomorrow and Wednesday. For purely selfish reasons i didn’t want Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross to meet, but it will sure to hell be interesting. I was also hoping Rubi Light might bypass the Lexus, but at least it makes it a more interesting race. Quito De La Roque can get me out of a hole here. Fingers crossed.
Superman, I suggest you watch any of Kauto or Denman’s Gold Cup victories and then compare them to the manner in which Long Run won the Gold Cup. The only time Long Run ever got in front was after Kauto got tired and then scooted up the hill. It was basically a carbon copy of the race at Haydock, except that’s run over 2 1/2f shorter so Kauto didn’t get a chance to get tired. Go back and watch the race again if you don’t believe me. Even off the bridle before Imperial Commander was I seem to recall.
And as the Racing Post in-running comment states, he blundered twice.
I don’t think you could say that this year’s Gold Cup was as strong as Imperial Commander’s or Denman’s races. In fact you’d have to go back to 2007 to find a Gold Cup as bad as this year’s in my opinion. Whether Long Run is 6 or not is irrelevant. Everybody was jumping around saying that Master Minded was the first 5yo to win the Queen Mother until somebody actually did some research and found that he was the first 5yo in history to run in the race.
How many 6yos have run in the race since Mill House? I’d be interested to find out, and I’d be shocked if I needed both hands to count them all.
I was just watching some replays of recent Cheltenham Festival Championship races & it’s really extraordinary how so many short-priced favourites were beaten. Master Minded twice at 2/1 or less, Baracouda the same, Kauto Star 3 times.
Trying to oppose a 11/4 shot at the beginning of December for a race at the Festival is exactly the right thing to do, especially one who’s never truly looked like a superstar away from Kempton. Indeed like I said, for a horse who’s been off the bridle so far from home in his previous 2 starts, the last thing I’d want to do is back him.
Off the bridle today after the 13th fence ffs. Makes a mistake at practically every single fence. Run him in the 2013 National, a 4+ miler
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I reserve the right to stick to my opinion on how good long run will be if he loses the nose band !….maybe i’m clutching at straws as every horses is different, but it didn’t do Kauto any harm getting rid of it. Youd have to wonder why it’s still wearing it given how many jumping errors he makes. If a nose band is important to keep the horses mouth shut, then why didn’t Kauto all of a sudden need it ?
I wanted to have a bet on the King George, but instead opted for Silviniaco Conti at 7/2 with 30 quid. There’s no point me echoing what the trainer has said, as you know he thinks he has a big chance. I have watched the horses last run and am willing to believe that this track will suit due to it being flat. I also think PN is in a good position to be confident of a good race if his horse jumps well enough, as he trains the horse who was second behind Grand Crus LTO. There’s no point in my harping on about the KG prices if i was going to have a bet despite thoise odds, so i ain’t bothering unless Long Run hits 2/1 before the off. Even then i’d have to use wednesdays beer money unless the above prevails. I could swear that Kauto has went in from 11/2 in to 3/1, whilst Long Run has went from around 6/4 and 7/4 into 5/4(after kauto was confirmed). Do you know what ?….forget the beer money just now, i all of a sudden just got an insatiable urge to back Master Minded at 7/1 for 16 quid. It’s my extemporaneous protest against the tight price of the fav. I believe that master minded will get the trip, and i’ve been thinking that if anyone can match the powerful kicks over the last 3 fences of Long Run, then it could be him. I think is too much negativity surrounding MM at times. He’s had two very good wins in the Mellin and Amlin, and given that this has been the long term agenda, i think he has a good shout. Long Run will be difficult to beat though. I’m not having a bet on the Christmas hurdle, but i hope Binocular wins. This horse has always had a special presence for me. The hype surrounding him has always been there, and he’s put in some very good performances whislt running for those colours. I like it once he gets going as he has a neat action.
Some of the profound snobbery over a footballer buying a horse is pathetic. He seems like a decent fella to me. Then again, i don’t sit on a moral throne whilst casting downward gazes upon others. I suppose it is pretty admirable how he deals with all the criticism he gets, especially comments about how he looks.
It’s considered hot because Al ferof amongst others is a contender. I’ve not backed him ante post myself. You could well turn out to be right. I just wouldn’t read a great deal into his last race. Infact if i were to i’d be impressed by his performance. In the years i’ve watched racing, which isn’t many compared to others on here, i still don’t see why people are quick to call something a very weak or very good renewal. Often it can be difficult to know how good a renewal was until we apply heindsight. Even then there are often only 2 very good horses to take from any race we look back on.
Should be a very interesting battle between two hugely promising novice chasers in peddlers cross and sprinter sacre.
assuming both stand their ground of course. i’ve backed the henderson horse as some of his leaps at donny were breathtaking and you get the impression with his huge, long stride, that he could just two fences in one go let alone one.
peddlers cross of course is a massive danger to be given the utmost respect, but so far he’s not been put under any pressure with his jumping, i’m hoping that the pace sprinter sacre will go will force some errors at the business end.
menorah I can’t have at all as even the trainer doesn’t seem to know whether he’s a hurdler or a chaser, and theres an air of desperation about the way they are campaigning him now.
as far as for non stop is concerned, and his proximity to the nicholls 2nd fav for the arkle last time, in al ferof, I think it was more of a case of people overrating al ferof than for non stop having any aspirations to be a superstar
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It’s very easy to be over analytical with regards to some of these Arkle contending performers. Al ferof has done nothing wrong to concern his backers in my book. Captain Chris showed last season that sometimes things can change quickly at the business end of the season. He was beaten twice against Ghizao, and also once by Medermit. He never actually registered a win last season until beating Adams Island over 2m 4f.