December 29, 2011 at 19:02 #20648
Been thinking a while now to start a thread off and put the neck on the line like all the other brave ones currently running, so here goes!
Will work on a points system and every selection will be anywhere between 1 and 10 points depending on confidence etc….won’t generally be more than one or two selections per day and there will be plenty of days without selections…
Will work to best available odds at time of posting up selection and will also use the best odds guarantee at certain bookies when I think it’s needed.
Will kick the thread off with a selection for tomorrow purely and simply because I think it’s slightly overpriced at one particular bookies…
4.00 – Taunton – Harry Tricker
Not getting any younger and more than a few younger un-exposed ones in here who look on the upgrade, but been allowed to drop back to a mark (121) it’s won and run well of in recent seasons… a 2 length 2nd to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood the season before last being one example…..disappointing the last couple of runs but dropped a few lbs accoringly….no major worry over stable form and Joshua Moore a very able pilot.
The race they applied first time cheekpieces brought victory after a run of nine without a win and tomorrow they ditch those and go for first time visor/tonguestrap…so possibly may freshen the horse and bring a bit of improvement for that…
1pt e/w @25/1 (Bet365) 1/5 1,2,3…December 30, 2011 at 19:04 #385002
Ah well not the ideal start picking a non-runner but no harm done I suppose….
A first look through tomorrow’s cards a bit uninspiring but certainly one so far of interest, so will just go with that one for now…
15.15 – Lingfield –
Possibly a little late with this one as some have already had a little goso missed better prices…7’s into 11/2 at Bet365 and 10’s into 6’s with VC.
Does stand out like a sore thumb though in what looks a poor race that shouldn’t take much winning.
The last 3 runs at Wolves, a course Chjimes has never won at in 17 attempts looks as though it could have done the trick in dropping the mark back down to a winnable one though (62) so back to a course where the horse can win….should go very close off this mark tomorrow for me….so…
3pt win @6/1 Victor Chandler (B.O.G)January 2, 2012 at 09:38 #385348
Off to a losing start unfortunately….no hard luck stories though as Chjimes just not good enough on the day, was good money for the eventual winner despite a little late drift and was as easy a winner as you’re likely to see in a Lingfield handicap….
Back to the drawing board and a fancy today to try and get back in profit…
3.50 – Plumpton –
Am taking Colin Tizzards 4yo to follow up the CD win of two weeks ago. Looked capable of better that day and should be hard to beat in receipt of weight all round and a very handy extra 7lb taken off by the excellent Brendan Powell in the saddle.
6pt win @6/4 (Corals)
-3ptsJanuary 2, 2012 at 21:55 #385412
Not the start I would have wanted with another loser today….traded about 1.4 in running but think they went too quick and the horse that flip-flopped and ended up favourite landed a nice touch for Gary Moore….Definitely in this for the long haul though, so will stick at it and have another go on one tomorrow…
3.00 – Southwell – Bookiesindexboy
Not one to put the greatest amount of trust in but certainly slipped back to a winnable mark for me (62) over a CD that it’s won and ran well at a few times from higher marks than that in the past….Franny Norton a positive booking aswell for me…
1.5pt ew @14/1 (PaddyPower) (B.O.G)
Selections – 2
Wins – 0
Losses – 2
-9ptsJanuary 4, 2012 at 13:28 #385554Lone WolfMember
- Total Posts 614
Good luck. Let’s hope you get a few winners up for yourself. There’s no pressure or anything like that. I just see lays and plays as a better alternative to keeping a note pad on my desktop.January 6, 2012 at 22:19 #385829
Good luck. Let’s hope you get a few winners up for yourself. There’s no pressure or anything like that. I just see lays and plays as a better alternative to keeping a note pad on my desktop.
Yeah cheers agree with that!
The sort of selections and the prices I’ll be going for will mean one or two winners will easily swing round my points total if I can land a winner or two. As I say I’m in it for the long haul, been struck down with Manflu the last few days so been well out of it.
Last selection was maybe a bit of an eye-catcher and a possible for next time out….didn’t run the worst race and ended up going off half the price of what it was when I put it up so others were confident of a good run aswell…..
Onto tomorrow and so far I’ve found one that I fancy to be there or thereabouts…
2.05 – Sandown –
Had this one down in the notebook for a long time now and although around 30lb higher than around this time last year I think Venetia Williams charge is progressing nicely enough to go close again tomorrow. Her horses have really started coming to themselves now as they usually do after her slow starts to seasons. This one though was one of few that were running well when all the others seemed to be struggling so could bode well for it to still have a few lbs improvement left in it yet.
4pt win @ 9/2 generally taking B.O.G.
Selections – 3
Wins – 0
Losses – 3
-12ptsJanuary 7, 2012 at 21:53 #385980
Ah well, as the great Freddy Mercury once sang…. another one bites the dust!….looks like I went for the wrong Venetia one with one of her other runners Cicerone landing a nice touch….won’t desert Rileyev as I still think there’s another race or two this season for the horse…
Onto tomorrow and one I’m diving straight in for…
12.50 – Southwell –
Looks a dreadful race and the old timer surely in with it’s best chance of notching up another victory in a while….ran it’s best race for a while last time out and must go close tomorrow….a CD winner which I think is important at Southwell and the main thing that’s drawn me in is the recent stable form of 3 runners in January resulting in 3 winners….
Taking that into account I’m expecting a big run tomorrow and fully expect to claw a fair bit of defecit back….
8pt win @ 2/1 (Bet365) B.O.G
Selection – 4
Wins – 0
Losses – 4
-16ptsJanuary 11, 2012 at 20:03 #386476
Been really busy last few days, but thankfully not really fancied much and nothing has won that I may have thought of putting in so no harm done….probably a good thing I’ve been pretty busy!!
Was only a sh hd away from going into profit though with my last selection old Canadian Danehill just not managing to get up late on….another stride or two and I think I was in….
Ah well, onto tomorrow and one I’ve been watching a while…
3.05 – Fontwell –
Thought last time could have been the one as it went off quietly fancied, ended up being a bit disappointing though really….but has slipped so alarmingly down the handicap the horse MUST have a chance of getting competitive tomorrow dropping another 5lb to 94, some 17lbs lower than it’s last winning mark….
Stables only runner in January so far finished a respectable 2nd at 50/1 so not worried on that score from a stable that has had long poor spells in the past, shouldn’t be a ground worry either and I reckon it’s primed for a big run…
2.5pts ew @14/1 (VC) B.O.G
Selections – 5
Wins – 0
Losses – 5
-24ptsJanuary 14, 2012 at 15:49 #386865
Clawed a little back there with Tarateeno sneaking into 3rd and getting a bit of place profit….
Real rush to get this one in, but like it’s chances…
3.50 – Kempton –
2pts ew at SP
Update to come later…..January 21, 2012 at 09:41 #387613
Unfortunately the last bet (a real last minute one) was another failure, had a real busy week and hardly looked at a racecard but feel a bit refreshed and fancy 3 today….
2.35 – Ascot –
Has the profile of the type of horse I think Alan King does well with and fancy a big run on it’s re-appearance.
4pts ew @6/1 (Betvictor) 1/4 the odds 1,2,3…B.O.G
3.10 – Ascot –
Bit of a monkey at times but well capable on official ratings. First time cheekpieces could make a difference and not my favourite stable by any means but with 4 wins from 14 so far in January, in as good a form as she has been for a long time and looks set to run a big race.
3pts ew @11/2 (Betvictor) 1/4 the odds 1,2,3…B.O.G
1.55 – Lingfield –
As easy a winner as you’re likely to see last time and although penalised and jockey claim 2lb less, the way it won last time suggests there could be plenty more in the tank….much tougher race today but got to stick with it after winning so impressively last time..
4pt win @4/1 (Betvictor) B.O.G..
Selections – 7
Wins – 0
Place profit – 1
Losses – 6
-23.5ptsJanuary 21, 2012 at 15:52 #387680
I think you could say Zam’s had a good old day!!
One of the best tips I could give anyone is when your form is out take a few days off and don’t even look at any cards….chill out, have a little break and come back refreshed….you never know you may just post 3/3 on a difficult Saturday….
Will post running total updates when I’ve picked something out for tomorrow (if I see anything)….January 21, 2012 at 16:33 #387688tbracingParticipant
- Total Posts 1453
Top stuff Zam well done mateJanuary 21, 2012 at 17:43 #387700Venture to CognacParticipant
- Total Posts 13957
Well played Zam.January 22, 2012 at 08:04 #387765
Cheers for those, was a truly memorable day and just goes to show anyone can do it when things fall their way!
I said early on in the thread that at the odds I’ll be looking at, one winner could swing things round, three have really turned it for me though. A 79.63 profit on the day thanks in part aswell to the best odds guarantee coming into play and all three staked at Betvic would have returned a 363/1 treble, not a bad days work!
Just found the one I fancy today and a bit annoyed with meself for missing the opening price yesterday as it was 9/2 first show and is now 11/4 best. Will probably drift a bit later as I’m not fully trusting these early markets and early movers nowadays, think Bet365 and Betvic are playing games a bit, limiting what you can put on and cutting prices with hardly any money being put down, creating false looking markets. Anyway, the one I fancy….
3.55 – Kempton –
Think this race will involve the front two in the market fighting out the finish. Maybe I’m backing because the horse let me down last time (which can be dangerous) but it has a 6lb pull with the favourite and I strongly believe Now would have finished a lot closer last time with a better ride and more luck in running. With those today and the extra furlong I reckon Now will win the race. Fire In Babylon is obviously open to further improvement too, just think Now is the one to be on today…
6pt win @11/4 (Bet365) B.O.G
Selections – 10
Wins – 3
Place profit – 1
Losses – 6
+56.13ptsJanuary 23, 2012 at 23:05 #388021
Ah well, wasn’t meant to be for Now and couldn’t back up my exellent Saturday! Not the happiest with James Millman though and will question whether to back him again….rode a dreadful race when the horse came 4th on it’s penultimate run and then decides to front run yesterday when every time he’s rode it before it’s been held up, never mind though still in good profit…
One I like the look of tomorrow…
1.50 – Southwell –
Not the way to the rich house backing in sellers but couldn’t let this one pass. Back after a break at a course it’s done very well at previously and if turning up fit and anywhere near it’s best, will be surely too good for this field….
4pt win @SP
Selections – 11
Wins – 3
Place profit – 1
Losses – 7
+50.13ptsJanuary 25, 2012 at 21:49 #388253KINGFISHERMember
- Total Posts 1508
Well played Zam,3 out of 3 last Saturday reads well,must have paid over 200/1 as a treble,keep up the good work,Cheltenhams looming and you have to go into the worlds greatest festival confident!January 25, 2012 at 22:07 #388258
Yeah cheers for that, was a good day for sure….all weather seems to be letting me down badly as Imprimis another loser shows….fancy one tomorrow but am gonna leave the all weather for now and concentrate on jumps….Watch it win tomorrow now (Gask’s with De Silva on)…
Selections – 12
Wins – 3
Place profit – 1
Losses – 8
ps… no fears for Cheltenham at all, got plenty of winners already in bets….think this year will be my greatest of all time!!…shame my ante-post betfair hurdle bet has gone tits up though..
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