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I needed to fly somewhere to make a thread. I intend to have a few bets to see what direction i’m heading. My first bet for this thread is Moonlight Cloud @ 9/2 for the Sprint Stakes at Ascot. She will be fresh for this race, and the fact she is heading here instead of staying for Arc weekend is maybe something in itself. If she continus her form on from the Prix Maurice De Gheest she will have a winners chance. Some horses listed might not run. Her constitution is good for a horse that isn’t the biggest. I’ve put on 20 quid, and might add to it later.
For the Arc i’ve had small bets on Meandre and Hiruno D’Amour. I’m glad the ground is picking up speed. I judge Meandre on his paris form, and i was impressed by the Japanese horse in his trial. I’m looking forward to it.
Does anyone know if Elzaam is heading for this sprint. 33s looks pretty big if he is an intended runner ?
I had a look at tomorrows Dewhurst, and the horse i have backed for a 11 quid stake is ‘Most Improved’ at 10/1. He’s a big 2 y/o who has course experience, having run both his races there, breaking his maiden in the process. It’s certainly a big step up in class, but i think he can run a big race.
Todays Charlie Hall is an interesting race as it has many quality horses with question marks against them for numerous reasons, my selection included. I’ve selected Weird Al at 12/1 for a tenner. He has course form and will appreciate the ground, which i suspect may be a bit softer than the ‘good’ that’s advertised. Diamond Harry will run a very good race FTO if he is himself, and i suspect Time For Rupert will be very useful in the top races this season. I just think that for a smaller stakes punter like myself, 12/1 is a good price for a nice traveller who jumps very well, with a new good trainer. I obviously have no clue about the fitness levels of any of the competitors, and therefore these early races can make a right mug out of people.
I like to have a wee punt on the ‘both teams to score’ market on the fitbaw(football). My 4 selections accumulative odds are 19/2, again for a tenner.
Man City vs Wolves
Norwich vs Blackburn
W Ham vs Leicster
Birmingham vs BrightonI’ve backed Born to Sea for the 2000 guineas at 9/1 for 30 quid. He couldn’t have been any more impressive as a future prospect. He was obviously green as it was his debut, but he sat behind the front horses and showed plenty when given a couple of soft whips to finish off the job with ease. I also feel comfortable backing a good John Oxx horses given how he handled STS, as i know we won’t have to guess to much about his horses targets, or wonder if he has a better horse in the yard. I’m one of an awful lot of people who watch racing that think this horse could turn out to be very nice. I don’t even think 9/1 will be available by lunchtime tomorrow, and after the race i think he will be around 5/2 – 3/1 for Newmarket. If he doesn’t i will look like a right plum !
G’day mates, any sharks in the water ?….Melbourne cup time again, and i’ve made three tenner selections. This is one of my favourite races, so here’s hoping i can stay up for it. I’ve picked Red Cadeux @ 40/1, Fox Hunt @ 34/1, and the most unlikeliest winner from my three is 25/1 for Modun, who might not get the trip.
Red Cadeux – A length behind Duncan and Jukebox Jury at the Curragh, off level weights with juice in the ground. This strikes me as a horse whos form comes in bursts, so as he is in at 8st 6 pounds, and is in good form since making the journey to Australia, i thought the price was reasonable enough. I’d like some rain and a fast pace for this one.
Fox Hunt – We can kid ourselves on all we want, but anyone who has backed him within the last 48 hours has listened to Mark Johnson. He thinks it’s the ideal race for Fox Hunt. He posseses a good turn of foot, and a jockey who is at the top of the game right now. I’m interested to see how he will run at a lower weight of 8st 6 pounds, as he is usually lumped with the higher weights in group handicaps. Can go and stay on either likely going.
Modun – A horse that if i didn’t back i’d kick myself if he somehow won. I suppose we all have these kind of bets from time to time. On the plus side is his burst of pace, his natural progression and his growing into a stronger frame recently. He’s a big boy alright, but 2 miles against more experienced campaigners at the trip might be a big ask. He will take a couple of prizes in Dubai i’d think.
Todays Charlie Hall is an interesting race as it has many quality horses I’ve selected
Weird Al
at 12/1 for a tenner. I just think that for a smaller stakes punter like myself, 12/1 is a good price for a nice traveller who jumps very well, with a new good trainer.
Well played ‘Superman’,you even snaffled the price,i too like the look of
Fox Hunt
in the Melbourne cup,he will think he’s been let loose with that weight.I hope you can strike ‘Gold’ again mate!
Cheers Gordon. It’s been a bloody eventful week on the punting front. Weird Al done well. Then there’s the other side of the coin. Born to Sea wasn’t 100%, Strong Suit was drawn 11 and Red Cadeux was beaten by an inch of a midges baw hair
. I stayed up to watch it because apart from having a punt, it’s one of my favourite races. It can be such a cruel game at times. If Richard Hughes gets up to monkey business in the mile, i can see me having to save up for a new tv and living room window. I’ll need to get another winner shortly.My next selections are the two horses we’re familiar with for the BC Marathon. Not exactly ground breaking stuff, but i put 40 quid on Brigantin @ 8/1, and 20 quid on Meeznah at 9/1. My thinking is that they can both stay the trip, and hopefully on dirt given their pedigree. Both horses have good form, and i think both trainers want this race. Lanagan has said he’s always wanted to win a race at the BC meeting, and team Valor like Brigantin as he’s a home bred. I really hope they go close, as they campaign against good stayers. I watched last years Marathon, and there were one or two decent performances, but nothing from the Americans makes me think that the third placed horses in that race should be 4/1.
My third and last bet(unless i win something) for the BC is for 30 quid on
Farraaj
at 7/1 for the juvenile turf. He’s drawn nicely in 4, so hopefully he has less trouble in running than i did trying to spell his name correctly. His form from his last run at Newmarket works out pretty damn well, with Zip Top and Crusade franking that particular form line. He is tough and has pace, and has had only 4 starts, 2 of which were in the space of 8 days. This is another trainer who really wants a win in the Breeders Cup, and that makes the decision easier for me. I suppose Caspar Ne… wait until i get the correct spelling in a search…’Caspar Netscher’ backers also can have confidence in knowing those guys really want to win over there as well. I’m looking forward to these races.
One more actually. I’ve backed Misty for me @ 8/1 for a tenner in the Filly & Mare turf. I was impressed with her runs in the Irish 1000 and the Pretty Polly. I feel that she has enough pace to be suited to this track. I’m not actually that concerned about her being drawn out in 12. If she breaks in behind she can let the other horses do their thing up front. One they swing round the corner and make their moves, she can get a position just to the outside of the pack and make a closing move. Hopefully the break has done her a world of good. She will need to be smart against Stacelita, Nahrain and Announce.
I backed Aiteen Thirtythree for 20 quid at 13/2. I would have taken it at a bigger price for more money, but right now it is what it is. I think this horses education at Kempton was good, in that they wanted him to jump, let Somersby take the lead eventually, pretend they’re giving the horse a harder time than what the jockey was giving him, and have him chase Somersby home, whilst not getting too close. They done well to get him in this race off 152. I think he can run a nice race, but in the Hennessey there’s always going to be dangers who are well in. I’m quietly confident. I suppose Wymott and The Giant Bolster could be quite dangerous off their ratings.
After balancing up the pros and cons of backing Peddlers Cross at 5/1 with 50 quid for the Arkle, from my viewpoint the pros slightly edged out the cons. It’s not that good of a price, i think most would agree. Believe it or not, Ladbrokes were actually a stand out at 5’s. You would really think that loads of other firms could at least match that. Anyway peddlers Cross it is, because he looks as if he will excel over the larger obstacles. If he wins at bangor tomorrow, he might even be shorter which is the way things are these days. When he won his maiden chase at Bangor, the only thing i could take from it is his attitude and his willingness to run, and obviously his jumping. My thinking behind taking a short price is that i’m not so sure he will have a race against his potential arkle rivals before the festival(if he gets there), therefore his price is likely to get smaller anyway. One of the reasons i backed Hurricane Fly last season for the CH is that i didn’t envisage any races where he would get beat, and for me it’s likewise for Peddelers Cross. I think he will be ‘well looked after’, and given that he has good Cheltenham form in the Neptune and a very good effort in last seasons champion hurdle, i’m keen to make him my best bet for the festival. The phone bill can wait.
I can’t think of any excuses for 1833. He just wasn’t good enough. Things aren’t going the way i’d like them to. Fortunately i had a fiver on Vermaalen to score first against Fulham, and another fiver single on Kompany to score first against Liverpool. That kind of luck probably won’t happen again. It’s just such a pitty what happened to Gary Speed. It definitely took more than a shine off the wins. In terms of horses, i would like to hear some news on Spirit Son, and will look out for other peoples opinion on not the horses ability, but whether or not he has enough time to get that experience required for a Champion hurdle success. If he’s back for Christmas, and some knowledgable folk think the time line isn’t too tight, then i’ll get on. Of any time i’ve watched Nicky henderson talk about a horse, i’ve never seen him so excited by a horse than he is over Sprinter Sacre. Obviously being with Peddlers Cross i’m a bit concerned. He(NH) likes this horses big time, and could hardly contain himself. Nicky Henderson is always a good man to listen to, and like many trainers he doesn’t like to get too far ahead of himself. His reaction to Sprinter sacre was interesting to say the least. Ok now back to actually backing a horse. I have backed Quel Esprit at 78/1(tenner) for the Gold Cup. In my time watching racing i have noticed the trend of Willie Mullins horses having difficulty in making the transition from hurdles to chasing (Kempes, Mikael D’haguenet and Quel Esprit etc…). Quel Esprit quite clearly has potential still, and he travelled very well in last seasons RSA before falling a few out. Given that he done well on his re-appearance, i think it’s a fair price for a big outsider, as long as he gets his jumping in gear.
On that note i’ve deployed my tactic of having Sprinter Sacre doubled up with Sizing Europe and Finaians Rainbow for there reported festival targets. The Arkle does look a seriously hot race.
Those lines are 20 quid per double, and i added another 50 quid to Peddlers Cross. Ladbrokes are still the standout at 5/1. Some have the audacity to go 7/2. That’s an SP price on a horse who might not even go off favourite(or even travel to the festival), months before the actual race. At this point i will try and fall back. Perhaps it’s time to watch a couple of races to make the picture a bit more clear. There’s a Drinmore next week, and some nice races in December. Some of the odds on offer are quite interesting from a punters perspective. I noticed that one firm go 14/1 on kauto for the Gold Cup, and separate firm go the same price for Time for Rupert. I’ve also been backing Spirit Son for the CH, and by tomorrow my 50 quid single at 12/1 will be complete.
I’ve tried not to have another bet, but i didn’t try hard enough. I obviously like Sprinter Sacre, as well as Peddlers Cross for the Arkle. I’m not much of an each way punter, as i prefer two in the one race. I think some ante post oddschecker merchants will know what i mean when i say that site makes it alot easier for you to part with your dosh. I’ve concluded my singles for the Arkle by having 50 quid on Sprinter Sacre at 10/1. KingFisher Gordon doesn’t fancy either of my selections, so that gave me even more confidence in them !….some people will have you believe that he ‘can’t get up the hill'(you’ll find these people think the only horse who can get up the hill is the one who wins). I thought he put in a brilliant performance in the Supreme, and he was the first horse to put Cue Card in his place when he was walking all over them. After that he was travelling brilliantly and was leading at the last, until he went through the top and landed akwardly. Therefore i think the distance he finished behind Al Ferof slightly flattered the winner. I have a sneaky feeling he will be very good.
. I stayed up to watch it because apart from having a punt, it’s one of my favourite races. It can be such a cruel game at times. If Richard Hughes gets up to monkey business in the mile, i can see me having to save up for a new tv and living room window. I’ll need to get another winner shortly.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.