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Superman: Just reading through your Festival bets, you have some very nice dockets mate, as a mad ante post punter myself I admire what you have currently
I have backed a few of the same so hope you win buckets cometh the hour Cheers GDC. I hope Cheltenham can sling you a few bob also. I suppose in the back of my mind i have no set rules for these sort of bets, but when it comes to Cheltenham i have an unofficial strategy. I like to target the Arkle, Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup, and pretty much the races with the better horses, because it’s easier to know where you stand with these races. Other races are a bit more sketchier for me at the moment, such as some of the handicaps as well as races like the Supreme. At this moment in time i’d rather bide my time for those races, until plots and plans become clearer. If you take a decent price for a horse or two ante post, it can also make your hand stronger on the day to back the favourite in the same race for example. I’m not actually confident about my selections, as i operate on the basis that i’m holding a losing ticket until it runs/wins. I think i’ve given myself a race or two to work with.
I work my ante post bets pretty much the same, have had some useful winners over the years (Al Ferof 25s and 20s last year) and Somersby very nearly winning (33s and 25s EW) was another, obviously there have been the losers but like you say it’s trying to find the value before the markets get going.
I stick to past Festival form as my main criteria and then other Cheltenham form, followed by Newbury and Sandown form and that’s it!
This season sees me having backed:
Gold Cup: Long Run 6s (str8 after the race last year) and What a Friend 50s and 40s EW, backed him at 66s last year and he nearly caught Kauto for 3rd, I am positive there were team orders
QDLR EW at 20s and 16s and Bostons Angel at 33sQMCC: Sizing Europe at 14s
Arkle: Peddlers Cross at 8s and 6s
Ryanair: Kauto Stone at 25s
CH: Zarkandar at 16s and 14s – owes me nothing after a nice bet in the Triumph
Spirit Son purely because KF was banging on and then read Hendersons Stable Tour.
Albert: Sea of Thunder at 12s and this is one of my hopeful bankers!
RSA: First Lieutenant EW at 20s and Bobs Worth win at 8s and 6s.Whims are:
Neptune: Captain Cronan 25s but doubtful runner now.
World: Thousand Stars EW at 12s but going for the CH
triumph: Very very very bad call on HINTERLAND, |have to hold my hands up and admit it was my biggest ever mistake! All the rules say wait until Feb for the winner Never mindI stand to win a few grand if DILDAR wins the Triumph, more a fingers crossed time as he has not set foot over jumps yet BUT if he goes for the right race you just watch his price tumble
GDC – you have some good bets there. There’s plenty of room for manoeuvre between now and the races. With regards to Hinterland, i wouldn’t write a horse off just because he appeared before Christmas. 3 of the last 5 winners have appeared before Christmas, and a couple of those continued on from a flat campaign. Katchit didn’t have a break infact, Celestial Halo went from the flats to start off in december and Zaynar also started in december. I think the last couple of winner haven’t run until later because they simplay didn’t arrive at their respective yards until later on. I’ll definitely keep Dildar in mind.
I backed Dildar with 50 quid at 20/1 for the Triumph. I know it’s a race many people avoid at an early stage. Obviously GDC has mentioned it quite a few times, and Paul Nichols is looking forward to seeing it run. Aside from it’s flat record, i have another reason in the back of my mind which makes me suspect that this could be a good price. Anything could happen, but i quite like this bet actually.
I backed Captain Chris with 50 quid at 14/1 NRNB for the GC. I don’t know if he could get the trip or not. I don’t think the King George answered enough questions with regards to trip and whether or not he’s good enough at that level. I don’t even know how connections are supposed to judge his next race. After all, this is a horse who got beat whilst getting weight from a horse he then went on to hammer in the Arkle(Ghizao)…so what does he have to do to get a Gold Cup entry ?…is getting beat 18 lengths by Kauto any worse than getting beat 10L by Ghizao ? ….i’m ok with backing him though as he is a horse i do like, and the risk isn’t great. I had a couple of small doubles for peace of mind at a tenner each Al Ferof/Zarkandar & Zarkandar/Capt Chris(Ryanair). I’ve also added to Dildar with 20 quid at 20/1.
Tenner double on Zarkandar and Last Instalment. The reason being is that it’s now unlikely Spirit Son will even run. Hurricane Fly will be hard to beat though, but he’s not 7/1 all the same.
I want to heal this deficit a bit. I’m not going to second guess O’Neil or be suckered by this talk of Synchronised being a doubt for the Hennessy. If he goes then good for him. I suspect there’s nothing wrong with him and they just want to save him for the gold cup. I’ll stick to the last two horses i backed over Christmas in the Irish race, and double them up with Zarkandar for the Betfair. It’s two tenner doubles. Zarkandar is 10/3 and Quito is 4/1 and Magninimity is 25/1. I suppose this bet is slightly tactical, as i’ve a big price on Quel Esprit for the GC and a NRNB on Quito at a good price. I think Zarkandar is quite special, and the horse who can come closest to causing HF a problem in the Champion Hurdle. I don’t know why he’s still 8/1 since Spirit Son won’t be turning up. If i was a bigger player i’d be snapping up those 8’s each way. I’ll tell you something else for nothing, the likes of Grandouet won’t be seeing Zarkandar in the CH, and he’s a smaller price. This Nicholls horse was ultra impressive in the triumph. He wasn’t stopping, and they weren’t getting near him. I’ve also had a tenner double on Zarkandar and First Lieutenant for their festival targets. It’s good to have a race or two pre-festival to watch.
My first flats bets this year are 10 quid on Sir Reginald 22/1 and 7 quid on Rerouted 18/1 in the 125 at Meydan. I wouldn’t get into a habit of laying them at those prices anyway.
March can’t come quick enough. I’ll just have to plot and plan away. I have more plots in my head than Guy Fawkes. I’ll try and take my mind off the festival by looking forward to the Betfair and Hennessy. I suppose it will also be interesting in a way to see if they find a race soon for Burton Port, and whether or not Cpt Chris gets a tune at Kempton where i think they would be right to send him. I also want to see Dildar in the Adonis. I’m not in a position to judge him just yet. On a more comical note, i read someone putting up an automated e-mail they got from Vic Chandler. For a second i thought the fella was joking, until i got a similar e-mail which read…..
"Start your big freeze February with a bet on the Virtual Horse Racing.
This is racing that’s never abandoned whatever the weather. All you need to do is log in, select your market, place your bet and watch the race. No snow, no cold, just a warm February flutter.
Bet now at Chandler Park, Victor Springs or Victory Straights.
Kind Regards,
BETVICTOR Team"
I don’t know why i’m putting this bet up. It’s probably just habit. Anyway i shoved a fiver on Smokey Oakey at 28/1. He seems potentially over priced considering the jockeys taking 7 pound off.
As i said to GDC, these bets are nothing until they run, and ultimately win, regardless of how the book looks. SS is out of the CH, QDLR is up in the air affecting two separate bets and Cap Chris has alot to do. It’s just not my day. I will have to re-eveluate things and see where i’m going. I always think pounds over points, so i’ll need to land something soon. Another look at my W/L and maybe i’ll start having a few beers instead of a few more bets.
I diverted money from QDLR on to Cap Chris. at 25/1 for the GC, and added a tenner at 33/1. Hobbs is about as helpful as swine flu, which doesn’t help. Apparently the horse is more likely to go down the GC route, despite in the same interview stating that they dodged another card because it didn’t have a 2m 5f race. It was either this horse or Burton Port to oppose the leading 2, as Burton Port is a nice horse also. I backed Al Ferof with 50 quid at 25/1 for the King George.
I was impressed enough with Burton Port so i placed a 50 quid stake on him at 16/1 for the GC, and a 50 quid bet 14/1 nrnb. That was a good run all things considered. I’ve been waiting for him to run as i stated before, but i needed to see what he retains.
Mugs like me and my money are easily parted. I wasn’t intending to do much witrh the supreme, but i placed a 50 quid bet on Darlan at 14/1. I was impressed with that run and took the price. Obviously i hope the horse is ok after that fall. If it goes, it goes. I’m a bit knee jerk at times.
My last single until my AP’s start running is 20 quid Eastlake at 12/1 in the handicap hurdle at Ascot.
Al ferof has always been a concern, so i’ve thrown him in a few small accys. He’s smart and robust, and i have the odd accy for an out ball. Binocular looked good yesterday. He’s a horse i like and one i’m slightly fond of in my own way. I remember backing him with between 10 to 30 quid bet which was a lot for me at the time, when he came 3rd to Punjabi and Celestial Halo. I got a good few quid by my standards when he evetually got his nose in front, despite it looking as if he wouldn’t even make the festival. It was one of the best feelings i can remember in my time betting, and was up there for excitement with the time i placed £2 on Whiteoak to win the David Nicholson at 20/1, and Special Duty saving my bacon when winning the 1000 guineas. I like the silks of Binocular, as they are just striking to me, and remind me of the time when i first started punting and recalling the hype surrounding Bino, and auld mans Hendersons face when Punjabi won. I suppose the funny thing is that i collected on him when he wasn’t expected to actually participate, and when he was expected to run last year to attempt my 4 timer, he didn’t turn up due to Holland & Barrett issues.
The firm i placed it with paid out on the first 3 legs anyway, to my suprise. Therefore, if this rollercoaster horse turns up and does the business in March, i will be happy even if it turns out i hadn’t a penny on him. It would be another twist in the tale of his indelible career.
I have backed a few of the same so hope you win buckets cometh the hour 
QDLR EW at 20s and 16s and Bostons Angel at 33s
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