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I am really shocked at the falls and then the performance of Stateman,didn’t think he had that in him (until the fall)
I backed her without constitution hill @19.00 this morning.
Also backed her in play, small stakes admittedly but it more than doubled my super boost on Constitution Hill.
Stencil was 2nd to East India Dock lto.
He lost by 10L but was 18L clear of the 3rd placed Torrent. His raceIQ data was fantastic, getting a jumping index of 8.7 compared to East India Dock’s 8.5.
Selection
Stencil @6.00
I’m not sure if you can call this form franking because it was a class 3 race but the 6th place Believeitanducan has bolted up by 8L at Stratford today.
Also back him in a double with East India Dock.
Looks like you were right Ginger, I’d rather not have the competition from a very good horse but I think, on the weather forecast, The New Lion will have too much for him.
No Questions Asked @34.00
Won lto in an easy race over 2m, just to get his fifth race in. He finished ½L 2nd to Henderson’s Califet En Vol in a listed race.
He got raised 14lb after coming 2nd in that race and has kept that mark for the Martin Pipe.Nap: East India Dock (I have him at 6/1 before his last Cheltenham race)
His last performance at Cheltenham was breathtaking. So slick over his hurdles, front running at a really relentless pace. Still had the capability to accelerate away with a little bit of hands & heels encouragement. Lulamba has to prove it at Cheltenham, something Easy India Dock has done twice.
Lay: Final Demand in the turners.
I think The New Lion will have too much pace for him on dry ground.
Ew: I’ll go for two here as I want to back the East India Dock form and I have a bigger price one.
Stencil @7.00 in the Fred Winter
He was the only one to get remotely close to East India Dock, his jumping was nice and slick and he looks like he’s got a decent mark.
No Questions Asked in the Martin Pipe @34.00
Won lto in an easy race over 2m, just to get his fifth race in. He finished ½L 2nd to Henderson’s Califet En Vol.
Two at the top of the market.
The new lion hasn’t yet come off the bridle, sauntering home in all but one of his races. He was so so impressive lto beating his nearest rival by 4½L, putting the race easily to bed while showing an excellent turn of foot. 2nd, 4th, and 5th have all come out and won since. To put a grade1 to bed like that is impressive.
Skelton is bullish about coming back in trip and in the champion hurdle next year.
3 of those behind him at his last but one start have also won but none of them have really been at the same level as the races they’ve met in.
My only criticism of him is that he’s not been tested to see what he can come up with but Skelton said he’s never had a horse like him, saying Willie has this good a horse all the time.
If Final Demand comes here and the ground is anywhere near good, he’ll struggle to make an impression with the new lion’s turn of foot, he is a definite gold cup horse of the future. As I said above, I think he’s unlikely to run here but the market has contracted on him
Next is The Yellow Clay. He’s unbeaten over obstacles and won by 8L lto, beating his stable companion Wingmen by 11L. Wingmen was easily beaten 12L by Final Demand in his next race so there is a form line to him.
He’s definitely got an each way shot.
James’s gate is next, he’s been mostly racing over 2m and winning. He has had one race over 2m3f, one has come out and won since from that race (at 2m). Not sure he has the stamina at this extended race.
Willie Twiston-Davies was, unusually, not very bullish about Potter’s Charm so I’ll give him a dodge.
I was going to leave Sixmilebridge out of my writeup, thinking he is going for the longer race.
However, he did beat Potter’s Charm by 8L at Cheltenham lto (while getting 5lb). As I said, Willie Twiston-Davies wasn’t bullish so it seems like he was very underpar that day so performance not that worthy.
Selection
The New Lion @2.87
The Yellow Clay Ew @6.50Field is going to cut up with Haiti Couleurs and The changing Man going to be in other races.
He got trampled on by Sir Gino over 2m in his last but one race. He was giving him 6lb but it proved that Ballyburn isn’t a 2m chaser at the top level. Rubaud who fell has gone on to win a grade 2 race over 2m4f.
Lto he was mightily impressive over 2m5f beating Croke Park by 5L, Impaire Et Passe by 10½ and Champ Kiely by 21½L.
He looked every inch a stayer, pulling away from them the further they went. Champ Kiely has also gone on to win a Grade 3 race.
Next is Dancing City.
Very much a stayer and proven over 3m. I would be very surprised if he wasn’t in the first 3.
Better Days Ahead is next, he beat Stellar Story by a neck lto, he was getting 5lb. Stellar Story was 45L behind him the time before. I don’t see him doing well in this race.
Next is Gorgeous Tom who finished 4th, only ¾L behind the winner who was Croke Park in a race over 2m4f. He was closing all the time and a little further would have resulted in him winning. He should have a good chance of a place but I don’t think there’s going to be enough for 3 places.
Selection
If Ballyburn stays upright, he wins.
I’m not sure that he will get any shorter when the two are 40/1.
I can’t see Jonbon not winning this, he’s 9lb clear of his nearest realistic rival. People crab him because he’s only ever lost at Cheltenham, he has won there but never at the festival.
One of the two loses at the festival was Constitution Hill so we can let him off that one.
Marine Nationale is next in the betting, he chased home Solness lto who re-opposes in this race.
Danny Mullins went off in front and the pack thought that he’d just come back to them. He nearly did but then quickened away from Marine Nationale (and then was being reeled in towards the line). I think Marine Nationale will be a lot closer to Solness in this race, he had to expend plenty of energy to catch up to him. Has a good chance of reversing the form on better ground than last time.
Energumene is 11 and is best seen on a heavier ground than he’s gonna get, he’s likely to be in the Ryanair.
Solness is next, he should go off in front but won’t get as much of his own way.
Selection
Jonbon
Ew on Marine NationaleI usually love the bumper, this year’s one seems to have a lot of horses with 1’s against their names. However, when I’ve just gone through the form lines of every single runner, none of them stack up. The Mullins horses (or at least the ones that look impressive) only appeared very recently (Copacabana & Gameofinches). They were quickly parachuted into favourites after their races but Copacabana is now back into favourite.
Then, when I got down to the last few, I found Aqua Force. I watched her race back and she was very impressive, beating Champagne Venture by 28L on very soft ground at Gowran. Her time is listed as the fastest bumper for that distance there. However, they have four bumper distances there and I don’t know how many races at 2m1f they have had take place. She was only 15s behind the winning time of Blue Lemons (who is in the supreme) and the winning horse in the Grade 3.
There is a small form line to Bambino Fever who is also a mare. She beat Champagne Venture by 8¾L in Champagne Venture’s previous race.
Back to Aqua Force, she’s been bought by JP McManus since that race and been placed with Willie Mullins!
She’s been well found in the market.
Unfortunately, this all means that I have to go on the impression of the performance and/or what respected commentators have said. Both Copacabana and Gameofinches won very impressively, Copacabana was pushed out to scoot away but Gameofinches wasn’t and still did so.
If I was to pick one of the two, I’d go for Gameofinches. However, Ruby Walsh has stuck with Copacabana, pointing out how long it took Patrick Mullins to pull him up.
Selection
After ‘finding’ Aqua Force, I’ll go for her @12.00
I’ll listen to Ruby and go for Copacabana @3.75https://x.com/ToteRacing/status/1897373282074272034
Ricci virtually confirming that Lossiemouth is running in this. So much for a two year plan (not pocket talk).
Can’t help but be impressed with the way Kopek won lto. He was a bit of a talking horse at the start of the season. His time was v.good too, despite him being not asked to do anything. He was 2 seconds faster than state man (who was hampered) in the championship race.
He’s not the slickest of jumpers but did improve markedly after a poor round of jumping on his first outing over hurdles. Despite that poor performance, he still managed to beat Kawaboomga (who would have been entered in this) by 2¾L. Usually it’s difficult to have form lines on the same day/track. However, there’s an abundance of it for this race from the December 26th Leopardstown meeting.
Kopek Des Bordes: 3m52s 11st7lb
Kawaboomga 2¾L +1S 11st7lbWorkahead 3m52s 11st12lb
William Munny 7L +1s 11st12lbWorkahead needs to be upgraded due to the extra weight, William Munny also needs to be upgraded.
This is where it gets a little interesting. Kawaboomga beats William Munny nto by 1½L or 1 second. It’s the fastest time by a large margin in the three 2m races on the day. They both carry 11st12lb.
On the times and weights, Workahead appears to be the best horse. Unfortunately, Kopek Des Bordes’ jumping improved loads nto so it’s difficult to say for certain where they will place on the day but Workahead would have beaten him off level weights on that day. De Bromhead seems to be coming into form and was bullish about Workahead’s recent training session in an interview today. Form has seen a boost with William Munny’s easy victory, the 3rd placed horse has won twice over hurdles (albeit not at the highest level). The 5th placed horse recently won a class 1 race.
William Munny is interesting as he’s had another run. He sauntered home by 15L without having to push a button. Very similar style to the now champion bumper favourite Gameofinches who was .1s quicker on the same day and distance.
Romeo Coolio is next in the betting. He was 2nd in last year’s bumper so definitely stays up the hill. The ground was described as soft, heavy in places so he has stamina. He bombed out in the Punchestown bumper, coming 5th, 7L behind William Munny who came 3rd.
He beat his stable companion Bleu de vassy lto in Leopardstown on 27th December. He beat him by 9L. He clocked 3m50.9s so 1s faster than the horses the day before. This is a rough I know but the ground did have the same description. However, a form line to Kopek Des Bordes is available through Bleu de vassy. He raced against him nto and beat him by 38L.
I suppose the time was decent. Gordon Elliot wasn’t that bullish on his chances in a preview so maybe not one to focus on.
Salvatore Mundi is next in the betting.
6th in the bumper and only seen in January. He won the Moscow flyer race but the time was the same as the maiden hurdle and they were carrying 8lb less. Nothing in behind has done anything since.
Can’t have him.Selection:
You can’t help but be impressed by Kopek Des Bordes. He is supposed to be a little revved up and that won’t help him at Cheltenham in the first race. He is a hard bet given the slight niggle about his temperament and, despite his jumping improving markedly, his jumping.
I’m going to chance two at bigger prices
Workahead @13.00
William Munny @15.00*Sorry for the lengthy write up, it’s my way of analysing the races and then organising my thoughts.
1:30 Il Etait Temps (Nap)
2:10 Jon Bon
2:50 Into Overdrive (NB)
3:30 Saint Roi
4:10 Brandy Love
4:50 Bad
5:30 Mahler MissionAn explanation of the govts policy from a legal point of view (and some clear up on whether they are illegal and on claiming in the first country)
Very useful for those who may read the daily mail/express or telegraph (or consume media from other inaccurate sources)
I do fear Facile Vega but as a clock fan, I can’t ignore the time that Il Etait Temps posted at the DRF.
There’s also some direct-ish comparisons to Gaelic Warrior and to State Man as they both raced on the same day over the same distance with the same weight.
State Man and Il Etait Temps both put their races to bed without too much whip (maybe 3 strikes) which makes Il Etait Temps performance a bit better as the time and distance over his competition was better.
Stateman is now rated 167.
Il Etait Temps posted a time 3 seconds faster than State Man and 5 seconds faster than Gaelic Warrior.
Suppose the fly in the ointment with my times argument is that Facile Vega did beat Il Etait Temps in the race before this latest one. However, that race was on soft ground and the time on the day was virtually the same as Winter Fog’s win (carrying 11lb less). We also know from last year’s bumper that Facile Vega acts well on softer ground. In the race Facile Vega beat Il Etait Temps in, he was able to dictate up front without any pressure. Something he won’t get in this race (although we are told a change in tactics is in the offing)
Il Etait Temps has perhaps taken a leap forwards that Vega hasn’t, especially on better ground and is definitely the value pick if it drys up. Danny isn’t shy in beating Townend if he’s got a good horse.
Perhaps Il Etait Temps needs a strong gallop to run in behind, he’ll 100% get that in the supreme.
Also seems a bit of a stretch to be able to turn that last performance around for Facile Vega. Positive vibes are coming from the camp though.
The favourite is Facile Vega, currently 1.90 for the race. He’s raced twice so far and is a son of Que Vega who won 6 mares hurdles in a row. In his first race he won easily but was pushed out from 2f out and his time was 10 seconds faster than 2m hurdle – Fil Dor. Fil Dor not pushed, Fil Dor is currently 3rd favourite for the Triumph hurdle and rated 142.
In his 2nd race, he won easily again, less pushing out. Only from 2nd to 1st last furlong, then relaxed. He won both races by 6 lengths. In his 2nd race he was 3 seconds faster than the 2m hurdle winner Vauban who opposes Fil Dor in the Triumph and is favourite for that. He is rated 145.
Facile Vega has an awesome mother who was more than proven at Cheltenham. He has been pushed to accelerate and responded, still don’t know where the bottom is but he has been asked to find something.The 2nd favourite @3.50 is American Mike (who I have at 13.00 😛). In his first race Jamie Codd was motionless, didn’t even touch him. Despite not touching him, he finished 7 seconds faster than the 2m hurdle winner Eskylane (131 at time, now 151!) is 9th Fav for County hurdle.
In his 2nd race he was imperious again. Codd gave him one shake of the reigns and he won by 17 lengths. Good gallop set by 2nd and the time is the fastest of the ones I’ve looked at in detail when you factor in the weight. Codd has been very very bullish when it comes to American Mike, as have the yard saying that he’s by far the best they’ve got. Something you can’t say about the Mullins camp.
That brings me on to third favourite Redemption day who has only raced once. Patrick gave him 2 small shakes of the reigns to quicken, didn’t move afterwards. Ruby said in the comments after the race that he has loads of gears (didn’t need to show too many of them after two shakes of the reigns) and that he won hard, hard on the bridle.
He raced 2 days later than Facile at Leopardstown and the ground had gone from soft(facile) to good to soft(redemption). Not a direct comparison admittedly but Facile was 5 seconds faster but was really asked to accelerate with bouncing up and down vs 2 shakes. Redemption was also carrying 5lbs more. I am also pretty happy with the comments from Ruby about gears. Redemption Day is currently 7.00.
Overall, this looks a tasty renewal. American Mike was favourite until Facile Vega’s 2nd run. I think my choice would be American Mike with an eachway bet on Redemption day. If Facile wins, so be it. I wasn’t visually as blown away by him as some clearly are and the fact that American Mike was 7 seconds faster than a 151 rated horse without touching him is something I am more impressed with. Unfortunately Redemption day doesn’t have a direct comparison on the day but he was faster carrying 5lb more weight at the same track two days later (with little encouragement)
On the evidence so far, I’d say, to me anyway, Redemption looks better than Facile (but we haven’t seen anyone try to get to the bottom of him) but Mike looks class again.Selections: Mike with an eachway on Redemption Day
*Sorry for the simplistic storytelling but it’s designed for my mates who don’t know racing that well
I also did a spreadsheet of the times and form: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PFc_ai9NBYAFQuSdKHJ6krmHIKxXW3EV/edit?usp=drivesdk&ouid=101743374518220495168&rtpof=true&sd=true
3:05 pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Class 1)(Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y
Chacun Pour Soi
Cilaos Emery
First Flow
Greaneteen
Notebook
Nube Negra
Politologue
Rouge Vif
Sceau Royal
Put The Kettle On
