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Better Days Ahead for me. Ballyburn deserves to be a short priced favourite but I just have a niggling doubt over him in what will surely be a truly run race. I think Better Days Ahead will benefit from a strong pace and a lead which he should get.
Field is going to cut up with Haiti Couleurs and The changing Man going to be in other races.
He got trampled on by Sir Gino over 2m in his last but one race. He was giving him 6lb but it proved that Ballyburn isn’t a 2m chaser at the top level. Rubaud who fell has gone on to win a grade 2 race over 2m4f.
Lto he was mightily impressive over 2m5f beating Croke Park by 5L, Impaire Et Passe by 10½ and Champ Kiely by 21½L.
He looked every inch a stayer, pulling away from them the further they went. Champ Kiely has also gone on to win a Grade 3 race.
Next is Dancing City.
Very much a stayer and proven over 3m. I would be very surprised if he wasn’t in the first 3.
Better Days Ahead is next, he beat Stellar Story by a neck lto, he was getting 5lb. Stellar Story was 45L behind him the time before. I don’t see him doing well in this race.
Next is Gorgeous Tom who finished 4th, only ¾L behind the winner who was Croke Park in a race over 2m4f. He was closing all the time and a little further would have resulted in him winning. He should have a good chance of a place but I don’t think there’s going to be enough for 3 places.
Selection
If Ballyburn stays upright, he wins.
I’m not sure that he will get any shorter when the two are 40/1.
I’m going to split the Gigginstown duo Stellar Story and Quai De Bourbon, but I’ll wait till tomorrow as I don’t like current odds
Dancing City out to 13/2 is too big for me. Just like Marborough I think that Ballyburn can make some mistakes.
Dancing City 13/2
This morning I worked out my 100% book for this race and looking at the available prices there was only one horse in the race better than my prices to beat. 2.08 Ballyburn.
Excellent value but I was greedy. Putting up a three figure sum for someone to lay @ 2.1 and left it there.
Came back to the market only to find my bet had not been taken and Ballyburn was down to 1.73. Too short for any bet, let alone a sizable one.Thought I was going to be against Dancing City, but I now make him a backable price @ 8.4 along with Gorgeous Tom’s 12. Hope I can have at least a saver on Ballyburn if he drifts back out a bit. If not… and he wins… I will not be a happy Ginge.
Of course if one of my two main bets win I’ll be delighted it happened.
Value Is EverythingLecky Watson w/o the 2 favs for me at 6/1. He looks a much better chaser than a hurdler.
Ballyburn is the class act and if he jumps well, I think he’ll be much too quick for the rest. His jumping does worry me though as he’s looked far from a natural thus far.
A lot here will imo depend on Steller Story.
I’ve seen a pace map that has him as being dropped out the back. Like he was against Better Days Ahead last time out. However, prior to that – on his penultimate start – he jumped awful and as a consequence ran poorly. So they dropped Steller out in an attempt to get him jumping better – which I can understand… And it worked – of sorts – it was better, good enough to challenge at the last. Still wasn’t fluent though. He’s mostly been ridden prominently both over fences and hurdles. Tracked the pace when winning the Albert Bartlett.If the odds-on favourite is beaten here, it will surely be due to stamina.
Lecky Watson has front run before, but he is from the same stable as Ballyburn and imo has even more of a question mark regards stamina. So if going to the front it won’t be in his best interests to make it a strong pace.
Quai De Bourbon never been far from the front but hasn’t actually led. Is in the same ownership as Steller so maybe will be sacrificed? Doubt it as he’s in the Mullins yard too.
Better Days Ahead seems best suited by hold up tactics – is said to idle in front.
On Gorgeous Tom’s record he looks sure to be held up.
Ballyburn himself races prominently at shorter trips. Not sure whether he will at 3m and even if leading is sure to go as slow as possible to ensure a test of speed at the trip.
Dancing City has led. Not sure it actually suits him though. But he’ll need a strong pace to bring his staying power into play. But will Mullins want a pace that will hurt his odds-on fav’s chance?
So that leaves Steller Story. I can see he might jump better if held up. But equally the Albert Bartlett winner’s best attributes are (a) Stamina and (b) stamina. So if holding him up in a slowish run race he’ll have no chance. Surely better to ensure a strongly run race by going to the front. Taking a chance on his jumping? Maybe he’ll even jump better if allowed to be on his own in front.
If not making it a strong pace they’d just as well give the prize to Ballyburn now.
Value Is EverythingBallyburn is the 2026 Gold Cup winner, of course he stays..
slow pace, fast pace, blindfolded
get your wheelbarrow outBlackbeard to conquer the World
Ballyburn 5/4 – Cheltenham chase course should be right up his alley. No major punt, gamble pissronsibly.
Ballyburn is my strongest fancy of the whole week. I’m right with you on the wheelbarrow, Nathan.
Do we think there’s any chance that, buoyed by her success with that boost on the Hill to 6-4 yesterday, Denise might give us a bit of odds against later this morning? Or are 365 more likely to boost Jonbon?
Edit… I’ve just seen they’ve gone 7/4 Jonbon. Ah well…
I’ve completely changed my position on this race. I’ve cashed out my Better Days Ahead bet in favour of Ballyburn, who I can’t quite believe isn’t odds on, in a double with Final Demand.
I’ve went with two of the bigger priced Mullins runner. Quai de bourbon 14-1 + Dancing City 7-1
I’ve added Stellar Story w/o the 2 favs at 11/2 after the snow this morning.
Ballyburn is an absolute disgraceful price now should he win or lose.
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