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I’ve been against Facile Vega all season…until now. The confidence those in the yard seem to have in him can’t be ignored, especially now he’s a backable price.
Il Etait Temps is the only one proven in a fast run race but there’s talk of him going to the County which is surely madness and would mean they think FV is much better on a going day.
Facile vega had an overreach according to David casey
May explain the way he ran last time
I do believe that his first ever winner in 1995 was Tourist Attraction who was unplaced in his last start. The only horse to have won it when unplaced last time out…
I thought there had to be more to it than the pace when Facile Vega was beaten by the last hurdle and when they cheerfully announced oh he was lame for a week afterwards! I thought well that’s not very reassuring is it. Turns out it was an overreach so I’m pretty satisfied by that, sore enough thing to account for dud run but yet usually superficial enough to heal quickly and completely and get back into final prep work.
I’ve just backed him in Mullins acca with El Fab, Gaillard, Impaire, Galopin and Allegorie so far but will probably have token single on him on the day.
I know it’s normally a toss-up between Mullins/Henderson but I have
to say that although he might be out of his depth, I’ve been mightily
impressed by the way Chasing Fire has won his last 4 (and his PTP)
with the greatest of ease. He might have been running in egg and
spoon races and going by his mark he needs to improve a ton, but I
can’t get away from the feeling that this is a good horse. Olly
Murphy said last month “I’ve only been training 5 years and never
had a champion, but I hope this one can be good”. He may not win
but I think he’s well worth an E/W at 20s.I do fear Facile Vega but as a clock fan, I can’t ignore the time that Il Etait Temps posted at the DRF.
There’s also some direct-ish comparisons to Gaelic Warrior and to State Man as they both raced on the same day over the same distance with the same weight.
State Man and Il Etait Temps both put their races to bed without too much whip (maybe 3 strikes) which makes Il Etait Temps performance a bit better as the time and distance over his competition was better.
Stateman is now rated 167.
Il Etait Temps posted a time 3 seconds faster than State Man and 5 seconds faster than Gaelic Warrior.
Suppose the fly in the ointment with my times argument is that Facile Vega did beat Il Etait Temps in the race before this latest one. However, that race was on soft ground and the time on the day was virtually the same as Winter Fog’s win (carrying 11lb less). We also know from last year’s bumper that Facile Vega acts well on softer ground. In the race Facile Vega beat Il Etait Temps in, he was able to dictate up front without any pressure. Something he won’t get in this race (although we are told a change in tactics is in the offing)
Il Etait Temps has perhaps taken a leap forwards that Vega hasn’t, especially on better ground and is definitely the value pick if it drys up. Danny isn’t shy in beating Townend if he’s got a good horse.
Perhaps Il Etait Temps needs a strong gallop to run in behind, he’ll 100% get that in the supreme.
Also seems a bit of a stretch to be able to turn that last performance around for Facile Vega. Positive vibes are coming from the camp though.
”I do fear Facile Vega but as a clock fan, I can’t ignore the time that Il Etait Temps posted at the DRF.
There’s also some direct-ish comparisons to Gaelic Warrior and to State Man as they both raced on the same day over the same distance with the same weight.
State Man and Il Etait Temps both put their races to bed without too much whip (maybe 3 strikes) which makes Il Etait Temps performance a bit better as the time and distance over his competition was better.
Stateman is now rated 167.
Il Etait Temps posted a time 3 seconds faster than State Man and 5 seconds faster than Gaelic Warrior.
Suppose the fly in the ointment with my times argument is that Facile Vega did beat Il Etait Temps in the race before this latest one. However, that race was on soft ground and the time on the day was virtually the same as Winter Fog’s win (carrying 11lb less). We also know from last year’s bumper that Facile Vega acts well on softer ground. In that race Facile Vega was able to dictate up front without any pressure. Something he won’t get in this race (although we are told a change in tactics is in the offing)
Il Etait Temps has perhaps taken a leap forwards that Vega hasn’t, especially on better ground and is definitely the value pick if it drys up. Danny isn’t shy in beating Townend if he’s got a good horse.
Perhaps Il Etait Temps needs a strong gallop to run in behind, he’ll 100% get that in the supreme.
Also seems a bit of a stretch to be able to turn that last performance around for Facile Vega. Positive vibes are coming from the camp though.”
Cracking post, thanks for the info..
Facile Vega obviously can deliver a standout performance, but besides him there doesn’t to be a real Irish special one. Because of that I like Tahmuras for this. He won all his hurdle races easily and has proven himself in the soft ground. Tolworth winners have a decent record here. Also added Fennor Cross at a big price. Hasn’t raced since November and I hope he still has improved during that period. Two decent wins here at Cheltenham and might place.
Tahmuras 11/1
Fennor Cross 50/1 EWDoctor Bravo went in the notebook after his last run, and I thought I’d be betting him in a handicap.
This looks a big ask, but I do like him, and I’ll be backing him four places. Currently 22’s
Doctor Bravo EW 4pls
It was a tough decision whether to trust my own eyes when looking at this race or whether to trust the word out of Mullins camp. In the end i went for the latter and have sided with Facile Vega. Willie talks of him in the same way he did with the likes of Douvan. I simply can’t ignore that, even though his last run has alarm bells ringing. 11/4 i thought was very fair and worth the punt.
I’ve already backed Chasing Fire E/w but I quite fancy Tahmuras to upset
the 3 at the front of the market. I got 12/1 from Paddy Power with a 1
point boost. I’ll have to do the rev F/C just in case.Chasing Fire 20/1 and 25/1 E/W 4 places Bet 365
Tahmuras 12/1 WIN Paddy Power
+ Rev F/C
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