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Quite possibly Aragorn, but even that would be just as flooded as the main board; there are 21 Ascot-related threads on the first page of the forum and it’s only day two.
I’ve just backed Shallal at 85.0 on Betfair, though have only be laid £3 at 19.0 for him to place. I’ll be investing in Phoenix Tower (5/1), Shyrl (8/1) and Overturn (33/1) with Ladbrokes in the next few minutes – the price on the second-named is huge in my eyes.
It would appear that Pricewise has put up Makaaseb at a stand out 5/1, marble, so I hope you didn’t take the SP (not that he had that much influence today anyway, mind).
An excellent piece; analytically plausible, well written, structurally sound and a pleasing blend of information and comparison.
As for the race itself I was quite disappointed by Henrythenavigator’s performance. He travelled so strongly and won with such authority at the Curragh that I expected a devastating display today and, for whatever reason, he just didn’t excite.
Raven’s Pass is widely accepted to be a non-stayer over a mile (a fractional analysis of the race would be useful, should any clockwatchers feel obliged) and the fact that he got so close to a horse publicly touted as ‘better than Giant’s Causeway and Rock Of Gibraltar’ says that either the pace wasn’t that strong, Henrythenavigator isn’t quite as good as we thought (having beaten a mile-and-a-half horse over a mile previously) or he’s merely feeling the effects of two top drawer efforts.
I think I’ll be reserving judgement on just how good the winner is after seeing him run again later in the season, and also Raven’s Pass when tried again over a mile.
Day 2 of Royal Ascot and you’re wondering why you’re having trouble accessing the RP website…!
I agree wholeheartedly Neil, but until a field of rampaging horses turns up during London Fashion Week I think your comparison is a little one-sided!
As a terrestrial channel the BBC has to cater for all tastes and, unfortunately for horseracing fans, this includes the glamour side of festivals such as Royal Ascot. It’s a sad fact that not everyone who goes racing is there actually watch it (a la the young woman interviewed by Angus McNae prior to the Derby, who said when asked about the event I have no idea what’s going on) and the same will, I imagine, be true of those watching at home.
The really annoying thing is that the quality of BBC programming in general is appalling, and the horse-centred elements of the show offer little content and remain wholly uninformative. And how Angus Loughran can be commenting on betting having recently been declared bankrupt (that’s not to reinforce any stigma already attached to people in similar situations, but such status should immedaitely disqualify you from publicly commenting on any financial matters) is beyond me.
Art Connoisseur kept my head above water yesterday and in doing so put up one of the best juvenile performances I have seen for some time. The strong pace clearly suited Michael Bell’s two-year-old and the turn of foot he showed to come from last to first was scintillating. Had Mullionmileanhour managed to get up in the final race of the afternoon then I would only just have stopped bouncing off the walls (I’d doubled him up with Art Connoisseur), but an otherwise pleasing day’s racing.
Plenty will be made of Calming Influence’s reappearance victory, and I suspect that he’ll be backed accordingly, but I think Shallal is being massively underestimated at the forecast 33/1. He was always likely to struggle in the Greenham, reappearing in a decent race and on wholly unsuitable ground, but to his credit he ran extremely well. That run should have him spot on for this, and with his juvenile maiden victory working out superbly (Easter Gift, Dream Eater, Moynahan, Royalist and Paveroc immediately behind) I’m very, very keen.
The Windsor Forest isn’t a race I’ll likely play in, but Baharah and Enforce would be my two against the field. The french filly, Sabana Perdida, was impressive at Lingfield, but I have reservations about the quality of the race and, consequently, how good she might be.
Ask disappointed me greatly on his return to action at Sandown (the trip may have been short of ideal, but the ground and stiff finish should have compensated somewhat) and I’m just not a fan of Duke Of Marmalade, so my hopes will be pinned on Phoenix Tower. Fast ground clearly isn’t a problem for this horse and, if improving on his Lockinge second now up in trip (which he quite probably will, having raced just five times), I’d expect him to be difficult to beat.
Bankable is the obvious selection in the Royal Hunt Cup, but Overturn has just scraped into the race and will be the one carrying my lead-weight money at a big price. The potential lack of pace on the near side is unnerving, but he attempted to make the running himself on his comeback at Sandown so I remain hopeful. It was actually a decent effort from the horse last time out, returning as he was from a break almost two years. He had been impressive in winning on his second start, on fast ground, and with the Swinburn horses in decent form he’s an each-way option against the favourite.
I had heard plenty of good things about Baileys Cacao before her debut at Windsor, and the subsequent comments of Richard Hughes would lead me to believe that she’ll go very close, but it was hard not to be astounded by the debut performance of Shyrl. She found herself up against impressive debut winners Danehill Destiny and Prolific and, despite having never seen a racecourse before, proved to be more than a handful. Slight interference toward the end of the race may have prevented Shyrl from finishing much closer to the winner, and if in anything like the same form has to go close.
The closing race, the Sandringham, is also a ‘sit back and enjoy’ event but if forced I’d just take Maramba to beat Makaaseb. There’s no doubting that the latter looked unlucky beind Raymi Coya last time, but she may find herself short of room from stall four and Richard Hills isn’t a man I’d want to be siding with in that instance.
Tactics has nothing to do with the order in which runners from the same stable finish, andyod, and everything to do with associated being used to set a race up for their stablemate. Whether today’s manoeuvre in the Queen Anne quite passes for tactical riding, I don’t know, but the antics at Epsom sure as hell did (that’s not to so Getaway would definitely have won, but he wasn’t given the chance to).
A Ouija Board colt by Monsun makes for an exciting future, and the little chap doesn’t look too bad even at this early stage.
A thoroughly enjoyable post, Chris.
Are we going to have seperate threads for every race, every ride and every trainer interview?
Cesare has to be ridden from the back, so in that sense Spencer has done nothing wrong, but he’s created a situation (the horse doesn’t need cover, just to come late) where it was always going to be impossible to get a run unless the entire field fanned out in front of him.
To be honest I’d have torn him a new a*sehole after that ride, but somehow I can’t see James Fanshawe taking such a stance.
Sheer incompetence, and may just have denied Cesare his Group 1.
Cesare was interfered with by Linngari as a knock-on from the initial incident I think, though, as I say, the biggest drag on the former was the jockey.
Having gone through the race this evening, I’m very much in the corner of Art Connoisseur (see the Royal Ascot discussions thread).
Last year I somehow managed to end Royal Ascot with an LSP of around £96 to £1 stakes (with a selection offered in every race) but judging by tomorrow’s action I’ll be happy to break even this time around.
The Queen Anne revolves around the Lockinge for me and back on his favourite track Cesare should go close. Stall three isn’t ideal given the hold-up ride he’ll receive, but he travels so strongly that Spencer should be able to work him into a decent enough position. He obviously has it to do to reverse form with Tariq, but with a trouble-free run I’d expect him to finish comfortably ahead of him.
I can’t entertain the prospect of Haradasun winning after his performance at Newbury, and Sageburg surely needs a little further and/or easier ground.
Fleeting Spirit was impressive last time out, but as Dave Nevison pointed out on RUK this afternoon breaking the track record at Haydock may not be that much of an achievement (the first seven home beat the previous record). Despite her obvious claims, Benbaun is most definitely better than his forecast price of 9/1 suggests. He’s as game as they come, has plenty in hand of Dandy Man on their meeting last season and is perfectly drawn (for a front runner) in stall one.
The 4/7 about Henrythenavigator is buying money, simple as that.
After Orizaba’s demolition job at Newbury I was almost convinced that the Coventry was a done deal, but with the likelihood of a strong pace Art Connoisseur may just be capable of causing a minor upset. He himself looked extremely talented when winning on debut, and showed a blistering turn of foot when accounting for eleven rivals at Newmarket. The quicker they go the better he’ll be in my view, and if Spencer can work his way around an inconvenient draw then Art Connoisseur has a massive chance.
The Ascot Stakes is a no-bet race for me, but I quite like the chances of Power Of Future after a pleasing reappearance for Andrew Oliver. She looked in desperate need of a step up in trip when running on strongly over two miles at Leopardstown and should find conditions ideal. The presence of Seamus Heffernan in the saddle is a little disconcerting, but anything like the forecast 16/1 may tempt me to have a small interest regardless.
I think the Windsor Castle is probably the most difficult race on the card, and despite the claims of Brae Hill I’ll be siding with Mullionmileanhour. Another impressive debutant winner, the son of Mull Of Kintyre clearly needs a decent pace and being drawn so close to Light The Fire would appear to be a blessing.
Laying is all about finding short-priced horses that don’t win, yeats.
Bankable’s price is as much down to the official handicapper’s comment of ‘he’s thrown in’ as anything else, though with Luca Cumani continuing in superb form I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss him out of hand.
It’s most definitely a ‘morning of the race’ decision as I’m sure the rip off merchants…sorry, telephone tipsters…will undoubtedly have a dozen or more sure things against the favourite.
