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3:05
Fleeting Spirit’s win at Haydock looked breathtaking. I originally rated Borderlescott as improving, but his run this week has led me to believe he just ran to form. The record time is misleading, with Haydock’s 5f never been used by such good horses and on lightning fast ground too. Even so it was an improved performance by the filly and deserves to be favourite. There could be more to come. My price to beat is 85/40 so might save on her later on.
Dandy Man was a well backed favourite that day, but lost a shoe and finished down the field. Trained by Ms Collins in Ireland last term, if Godolphin can improve him should be thereabouts. Is suited by conditions.
Enticing finished down the field at Haydock, travels well and loves firm ground but does not find much under pressure. That may be the reason blinkers are applied for the first time here. If she takes to them and they do not light her up, she might improve at a price.
Takeover Target beat Magnus last time in Singapore, however, usually more between the two than there was there. At nine years old he might be on the downgrade. Magnus is a group 1 animal, but may not be capable of winning a top group 1 race.
Kingsgate Native looks a value price on form of last year, but the trainer has been in particularly poor form so far this term (big negative). Having it’s first run, a market move either way may be significant.
Benbaun is another with really good form last year. Now a seven year old and ran disappointingly in France on reappearance. Stable now in much better form. It is a little disconcerting money has not come for him yet, hopefully it is because his best form is abroad, not having a following. Likes to be up with the pace and drawn on the rail. Captain Gerrard (another prominent runner) ‘s absence (was stall 2) is a help. Other possible early leaders are drawn 6, 7, 13 and 15. Likes a sound surface.
Moorhouse Lad improved to win the King George at Goodwood and also loves the ground. Has been injured since then and first run since here. Stable not in great form, but if (big IF) he can maintain that improvement coul surprise at a very big price.
Hoh Mike has not been getting home at six furlongs recently, needs to improve but may have a race run to suit here. Is held up and goes well in strongly run races.
Abraham Lincoln showed improved form at six furlongs last time (needs to again). Travelled well there so encouragement he should have the speed for this. You would think we’d hear if this is lighting up the gallops. But at the price, it is worth chancing.Prices to beat:
Fleeting Spirit 85/40 (15/8), Takeover Target 13/2 (11/2), Benbaun 7/1 (6/1), Dandy Man 17/2 (15/2), Magnus 9/1 (8/1), Kingsgate Native 14/1 (11/1), Equiano 20/1 (15/1), Hoh Mike 28/1 (20/1), Abraham Lincoln 33/1 (20/1), Enticing 40/1 (25/1), Moorhouse Lad 66/1 (40/1), National Clover 100/1 (50/1), Matsunosuke 1000/1 (400/1)
(Figures in brackets my bookies prices 119.6%)
3:45
Henrythenavigator is a worthy odds on favourite but there are a few here that could improve.
Falco won the French Guineas showing vastly improved form, if he can maintain that improvement can give the “banker” a fright. Hard to see it out of the frame and is a good each way bet.
Is possible Raven’s Pass did not stay the trip in the 2000, but was caught at the back and had to come wide. Much better than that suggests.
Twice Over I would have made favourite for the 2000, disappointed in the Dante though. Not convinced he did not stay that day. Looked potentially top class in the Craven and if over what ailed him at York could go close.
Stubbs Art’s price demonstrates this is a better race than the Irish 2000.My prices to beat:
Henrythenavigator 8/11 (4/6), Falco 9/2 (4/1), Raven’s Pass 7/1 (6/1), Twice Over 11/1 (17/2), Stubbs Art 33/1 (22/1), Alexandros 100/1 (50/1), Cat Junior 400/1 (100/1), Minnieonapolis 1000/1 (400/1)
bold type I make value bets.
Mark
Value Is EverythingNot long now until the gates open and the famous ‘Ascot roar’ for the start of the Festival.
Oh no, sorry, what I wish would happen, and the Irish going mad when ‘one goes in’. Just not the same, is it?
I’ll still watch it, mind you.Has that winner been tested?
Bit of a much of a muchness that lot perhaps..although all a bit muddling
Reflected the market
Well, well, well. Another winner for team [tactics] Ballydoyle. Unlucky for Linngari who was hampered and lost all chance thanks to the generous Heffernan edging off the rail and getting out of the way for his stablemate to have a clear run.
I’m sensing there’s going to be a recurring theme to your posts today, Clive. God help us if the Aussies win the Kings Stand!
Agree Librettist, there seemed to be some pacemaking tactics going on there. The Ballydoyle pacemaker leaving a gap against the rail for the winner to run into. They must think it’s faster there. Darjina ran well.
Cesare was interfered with by Linngari as a knock-on from the initial incident I think, though, as I say, the biggest drag on the former was the jockey.
What was Spencer at staying out the back when there was going to be a few Ballydoyle horses that were not exactly going to move out of the way, he needed to come wide
I’m sensing there’s going to be a recurring theme to your posts today, Clive. God help us if the Aussies win the Kings Stand!
I’ll drop it now Colin…
One credit to a masterful trainer like Aidan O’Brien – the ability to turn the horse into a Fighting Harada. He cowered under pressure too much last year.
Cesare has to be ridden from the back, so in that sense Spencer has done nothing wrong, but he’s created a situation (the horse doesn’t need cover, just to come late) where it was always going to be impossible to get a run unless the entire field fanned out in front of him.
To be honest I’d have torn him a new a*sehole after that ride, but somehow I can’t see James Fanshawe taking such a stance.
Sheer incompetence, and may just have denied Cesare his Group 1.
This was a case of very lazy betting by me – should have gone through the form better.
This is a very interesting point and one of the main reasons why I think punters find the "Festivals" harder to win money at. There are so many good races that it is virtually impossible to give each race the attention it merits. Hence, shortcutting is inevitable and opportunities which you may have spotted if the race was the only big one on the day are missed.
Alternatively of course you could be just a lazy *******!
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