- This topic has 66 replies, 36 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
Looking at about 30 hours total sleep this week. And by golly, it will be worth the fatigue and physical exhaustion!
There was such a difference between Sageburg and Darjina last start that I really find it difficult for the filly to turn the corner on her stablemate. She will certainly appreciate dropping back to the standard mile again but I expect Sageburg to be very much the same.
Olivier Peslier is in such a purple patch that he may be the top jockey on the European circuit right now. Particularly for a guy who has the disadvantage of not being retained (Soumillon, Dettori, Murtagh).
This looks like a top class Queen Anne and therefore I have reservations over any of Cesare, Tariq or Linngari – whilst the 2007 renewal would have been a different equation.
Would need to a see a very positive steamer in Haradasun to consider him.
I know there’s more on this card – but I haven’t gone over it yet. <!– s:wink: –>
<!– s:wink: –>Apart from Sageburg and the others , there is an extra worry for Darjina fans : she has run badly on her two previous visits to Ascot ; just about the worst two runs of her career.
With all due respect. I think it is probably stretching the imagination (just a little) to suggest that this year’s renewal of the Queen Anne Stakes is top class. None the less, it should be a good and fascinating race.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Darjina is a top filly – took down last year’s Champion Miler with ease at Longchamp and should have won both the Hong Kong Mile and Dubai Duty Free with the right conditions.
Sageburg is progressive. The potential to be top class off his throw down of Darjina last start. Don’t want to get too wrapped up by him as a similar opinion of Getaway went haywire (regardless of excuses).
Finsceal Beo is a dual Classic winner. Still holding top form for the distance if you look at that Dubai Duty Free performance.
Haradasun is a top class former Australian Group 1 winner – one of those races was our convict colony’s QEII Stakes equivalent in the Doncaster Handicap.
Even Anita Chambers of RP vaguely agrees with me:
HARADASUN and Sageburg lead a high-quality line-up for Tuesday’s Queen Anne Stakes, the opening event of the 2008 Royal Ascot meeting.
Even Anita Chambers of RP vaguely agrees with me:
HARADASUN and Sageburg lead a high-quality line-up for Tuesday’s Queen Anne Stakes, the opening event of the 2008 Royal Ascot meeting.
High quality, I agree, but not top of the range top class, if you see what I mean. That’s what I (for one) meant.
But hey, if Anita agrees with you, that more or less seals it, I suppose.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ascot website is suggesting that the track is Good to Firm with the Swinley Bottom bend riding Good. If it stays dry (no further rain forecast) then conditions would be perfect for Finsceal Beo who has a great record at a mile on quick ground.
I am pleased to see Sageburg in the race. He might be by Johanesburg but he’s never run over a mile and never run on ground with "Firm" in the description. I think he’s being rather overestimated.
Well Sageburg has not won over 1m so this could be a tricky race for him plus the pace will be a lot different from those seen in French races.
Dont think Finscean Beo will win as for me top 3yo fillies often struggle as 4yo but if she was kept for the Falmouth then that race would be a much better option.
I would suggest Tariq to continue the excellent record that 4yo have in this race.
The Kings Stand looks like being a grand race and while Fleeting Spirit was amazing at Haydock when i saw him win and also gets a bit extra at the weight because unlike Kingsgate Native he has not won a Group 1 i feel that sadly the Aussies may come out on top again but this looks a good renewal.
In the St James Palace Henry will come out on top but i do hope it is Twice Over for Mr Cecil as opposed to the Navigator mainly as we will get a much more exciting interview from Henry Cecil as opposed to Aidan looking his usuall sullen self.
Falco for France has to be respected but Rio de la Plata is running to soon after the Derby for me so has to be avoided.The Coventry is more of a race to watch so im not really bothered about it.
Best race for me is the 4.55 the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f a real horse race over a real trip and well supported by jumps trainers who always enjoy their day in the sun although being in top hat and tails for them is a long way from being in the tweed and cap at the likes of Wincanton and Wetherby.
Liberate who was placed behind Katchit last year who himself beat dual Diomed winner Blythe Knight at Wincanton in Feb is the class act of the race, A winner over 3m at Haydock in May over hurdles has Jamie Spencer on and should win this, he is 86 on the flat compared to 138 over jumps and for me is the banker of the meeting and much classie than Henrythenavigator unless he wins the 2009 Triumph hurdle.
The Windsor Castle is basically to Royal Ascot what the Jewson is to Cheltenham.
So their we are thats my preview, 3 Group 1s and a Group 2 before the big race
I think you’ve got that a bit backwards. The Coventry and the Windsor Castle are proper races, the Ascot Stakes is time to take a drink break.
I think Oriziba is the one to beat in the Coventry, unfortunately he was so visually impressive in winning at Newbury I don’t think he’ll be much of a price. The other one I’m considering is Lord Shanakill.
The Windsor Castle looks a minefield at the moment, so I’ll pass on that one for now.I was getting interested in David Pipe’s Mamlook for the Ascot Stakes- could be well handicapped given his hurdles rating now. Bit disappointed by single-figure quotes though, given he’s drawn on the wide outside.
What do you think about the trip for Mamlook Carvs? Personally I think he’s best around the minimum trip over jumps so would be concerned about two and a half miles on the Flat. Quite a few in that race that you would give a chance to on old form but none appeal more for me than Galient. He’s really well treated on his 3-y-o form and though he lost his form and enthusiasm for Jarvis, a switch to Henderson has seemed to work the oracle. The yard often to well with a small but select Flat string nd I think he’s a big player at 9/1. Of those at the head of he market, I was least keen on Som Tala. As it worked out, I don’t think the Chester Cup was all that strong a race and feel a 6lb rise for that leaves him most vulnerable.
I’m not going to back him at 8/1 anyway DJ- you could have a point about the trip. This used to be a bonanza race given the effect of the draw but that seems to have gone out the window lately- good luck with Galient but I’ll be filing it under "too hard".
Last year I somehow managed to end Royal Ascot with an LSP of around £96 to £1 stakes (with a selection offered in every race) but judging by tomorrow’s action I’ll be happy to break even this time around.
The Queen Anne revolves around the Lockinge for me and back on his favourite track Cesare should go close. Stall three isn’t ideal given the hold-up ride he’ll receive, but he travels so strongly that Spencer should be able to work him into a decent enough position. He obviously has it to do to reverse form with Tariq, but with a trouble-free run I’d expect him to finish comfortably ahead of him.
I can’t entertain the prospect of Haradasun winning after his performance at Newbury, and Sageburg surely needs a little further and/or easier ground.
Fleeting Spirit was impressive last time out, but as Dave Nevison pointed out on RUK this afternoon breaking the track record at Haydock may not be that much of an achievement (the first seven home beat the previous record). Despite her obvious claims, Benbaun is most definitely better than his forecast price of 9/1 suggests. He’s as game as they come, has plenty in hand of Dandy Man on their meeting last season and is perfectly drawn (for a front runner) in stall one.
The 4/7 about Henrythenavigator is buying money, simple as that.
After Orizaba’s demolition job at Newbury I was almost convinced that the Coventry was a done deal, but with the likelihood of a strong pace Art Connoisseur may just be capable of causing a minor upset. He himself looked extremely talented when winning on debut, and showed a blistering turn of foot when accounting for eleven rivals at Newmarket. The quicker they go the better he’ll be in my view, and if Spencer can work his way around an inconvenient draw then Art Connoisseur has a massive chance.
The Ascot Stakes is a no-bet race for me, but I quite like the chances of Power Of Future after a pleasing reappearance for Andrew Oliver. She looked in desperate need of a step up in trip when running on strongly over two miles at Leopardstown and should find conditions ideal. The presence of Seamus Heffernan in the saddle is a little disconcerting, but anything like the forecast 16/1 may tempt me to have a small interest regardless.
I think the Windsor Castle is probably the most difficult race on the card, and despite the claims of Brae Hill I’ll be siding with Mullionmileanhour. Another impressive debutant winner, the son of Mull Of Kintyre clearly needs a decent pace and being drawn so close to Light The Fire would appear to be a blessing.
Day 1 for me will be..
Race 1- 1st Darjina
E/W-Spirito del ventoRace 2- 1st Kingsgate native
E/W National colourRace 3- 1st Rio de la plata NON RUNNER so will bet Falco
E/W Stubbs artRace 4- 1st Smokey storm
E/W Intense focusRace 5- 1st Basalt
E/W Clear reefRace 6- 1st Bushranger
E/W Asaint needs brassML is back after a long absence. he might be a pacemaker but if in contention will go for it. FB ran a blinder last time out and is now back to a mile.The Aussie was impeded last run and has only so many chances before returning to stud so must make impression this time with stable jockey and beside royal box for visitors.
2:30
Very open race. Sageburg beat stable companion Darjina last time. Once again showing progressive form. Yet to race on a firm surface. If he can continue his improvement on the firmer surface will be difficult to beat. Apart from pacemakers there does not seem any other horses who like to race prominently. Sageburg possibly raced more forward than most last time.Cesare won on reappearance here, promising better to come (good record at Ascot). Normally settled out the back, did not get a truly run race at Newbury. Caught out when the slow pace quickened at Newbury. Can do better if a stronger pace prevails.Stable only one winner in the last two weeks but plenty of placed efforts.
Despite coming from a similar position, that slow pace at Newbury possibly flattered Tariq, a seven furlong horse with plenty of speed. This will show whether he truly stays a mile.
Haradarsun was weak in the market and pulled to post there. If behaving better can run well. A lot of O’Brien’s team have needed their first run this season. Was not far behind the principals after being hampered in the latter stages. If the master of Ballydoyle can improve the ex-Aussie….
Arabian Gleam was another just behind in the Lockinge but had the run of the race more than the three mentioned so far.
Spirito Del Vento won a French group 2 well enough last time (had Mount Nelson behind). Is not out of this on form though is more exposed than most. Even so price looks too big.
Lingari had seemed exposed when in the care of H.Brown in Dubai, ran poorly last time and has since changed stables. Remains to be seen if Stoute can work his magic.
My prices to beat on good-firm are:
Sageburg 5/1 (9/2), Haradarsun 11/2 (9/2), Cesare 11/2 (9/2), Tariq 15/2 (6/1), Finscael beo 15/2 (13/2), Darjina 17/2 (7/1), Lingari 9/1 (15/2), Arabian Gleam 28/1 (20/1), Spirito Del Vento 28/1 (20/1), Mount Nelson 66/1 (33/1), Honoured Guest 400/1 (100/1)
(Brackets are what I’d give if I were a bookie (not a prediction) to 120%)
Advice
Sageburg @ 6/1 betfair
Cesare @ 8.2/1 betfairMark
Value Is EverythingMy last post should have read MN not whatever I started with. If it makes any difference. Mount Nelson is back .His most recent race in France was full of promise.
I’ve submitted my selections for the first four races on various threads, but my remaining two fancies on Day One are the Mick Channon trained duo SOM TALA and MOSS LIKELY.
Som Tala has a history of running well in competitive handicaps. He ran well to finish third in this event last year and his Chester Cup second on his latest start was a fine effort. Recents trends also indicate he’s got a solid chance and very few ride Ascot as well as Frankie.
Moss Likely is an improving performer. She defeated Rebecca de Winter (winner since) on the AW before beating the useful duo April Pride and Glamorous Spirit (both previous winners) at Newbury. Mick Channon’s horses are in good form and he has a good record in this race.
<!– s:wink: –>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.