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Just my opinion – I believe Soldier Of Fortune is just a shade below what top class is shaping up to be this season.
And if that’s the case, then Duke Of Marmalade is yet another couple of shades below that.
I like progressive types as they can provide value in the market and plenty of intrigue, whether you stake on them or not. But I’m not sure Phoenix Tower’s form will be ready for this. But it may – that Lockinge run was solid.
Literato has to be the saddest case of a horse this year. Gives reason to hate Godolphin.
I think Danehill Destiny has an edge in the Queen Mary, but her price suggests I may need to look a little closer at her competition.
Let’s get day one over with first, shall we!
all these topics really getting to you LGR??
Had a brief look at day 2 of Royal Ascot even though i have never really had bets at the meeting over the years unlike another race meeting that we shall not speak of.
Duke of Marmalade on paper looks like the main thing in the Prince of Wales although he may be a lot better over a bit further than 1m2f.
Phoenix Tower going up in trip should be of note, ran a good race in defeat in the Lockinge and should benefit from the step up in trip.
On the same note Ask from Sir Michael Stoute ran well at Sandown in the Gordon Richards but is probably better over a bit more and maybe the King George could be his better alternative as the season goes on.
Regarding the Hunt Cup, Yes Bankable is the favourite as he is still improving and will become a Pattern horse easily but drawn in box 25 right over near the coach park is the only worry
Extratarrestrial could well be a good excuse for Richard Fahey to phone home as he won the Thirsk Hunt Cup in May and at 16-1 may be a good each way bet for people who want an alternative.Apart from that not much else to say about Day 2 of Royal Ascot although it was great to see Suzy Smith have a winner as she is more used to earning her corn around Fontwell and Plumpton and boy did she look happy to have that winner and i bet her smile was beaming down the streets of Lewes.
15.05
heaven sent 136
sabana perdida 132
many colours 123
enforce 121
baharah 120
grecian dancer 119
majestic roi 116
selinka 110
barshiba 109
harvest queen 107
fragrancy 104
nans joy 100
silca chiave 93
will back heaven sent to win
15.45
duke of marmalade 138
ask 136
regime 123
literato 123
sixties icon 122
loup breton 119
phoenix tower 118
pipedreamer 116
pressing 116
hattan 98
stotsford 95
red rock canyon 95
prtara bay 89
will back duke of marmalade to win
will back regime ew 40/1 bet365Duke Of Marmalade vs Phoenix Tower is a race I’m looking forward to.
The Duke sets the standard but Phoenix is lightly raced and not far behind on the very best of his progressive form. For the first time in ages he may well get blisteringly fast ground tomorrow and being by Chester House out of a Zafonic mare you would have to think he has a chance of improving on fast ground. Trip should be fine and looks like there should be a good pace on.
Could be a cracking battle between the two.
Okay, so there is every chance that Godolphin have ruined him, but Literato is a 4/1 shot on Champion Stakes form. He wouldn’t be the first horse Godolphin have bought back from the dead at this meeting (remember Refuse to Bend in the Queen Anne?) and I think Ladbrokes have taken a chance at 20/1.
Cruel Sea looked potentially a pattern filly last year but has been running over the wrong trip this year. Surely she’ll settle better back at 8f and if she does, I think she can show herself well handicapped.
Harvest Queen appears to be 7 times the price of Heaven Sent in the Windsor Forest yet stop the race 1f out in the 9f Dahlia and there’s nothing between them, in fact the drop back in trip should suit Peter Makin’s filly. Heaven Sent appears to be priced upon the acievements of Peeress, Chic et al, rather than on what she has achieved herself. Back to lay traders can surely get themselves a free bet providing they aren;t too greedy gievn how well Harvest Queen travels.
Just my opinion – I believe Soldier Of Fortune is just a shade below what top class is shaping up to be this season.
And if that’s the case, then Duke Of Marmalade is yet another couple of shades below that.
so does this mean Duke aint your banker of meeting?
looking foward to seeing Baileys Cacao in the Queen Mary stakes,hannon thinks a lot of him just hope Dick gives him a good ride!!!
a lot of talk about bankable been 18lbs in on the handicapper so hope he does…Art Connoisseur kept my head above water yesterday and in doing so put up one of the best juvenile performances I have seen for some time. The strong pace clearly suited Michael Bell’s two-year-old and the turn of foot he showed to come from last to first was scintillating. Had Mullionmileanhour managed to get up in the final race of the afternoon then I would only just have stopped bouncing off the walls (I’d doubled him up with Art Connoisseur), but an otherwise pleasing day’s racing.
Plenty will be made of Calming Influence’s reappearance victory, and I suspect that he’ll be backed accordingly, but I think Shallal is being massively underestimated at the forecast 33/1. He was always likely to struggle in the Greenham, reappearing in a decent race and on wholly unsuitable ground, but to his credit he ran extremely well. That run should have him spot on for this, and with his juvenile maiden victory working out superbly (Easter Gift, Dream Eater, Moynahan, Royalist and Paveroc immediately behind) I’m very, very keen.
The Windsor Forest isn’t a race I’ll likely play in, but Baharah and Enforce would be my two against the field. The french filly, Sabana Perdida, was impressive at Lingfield, but I have reservations about the quality of the race and, consequently, how good she might be.
Ask disappointed me greatly on his return to action at Sandown (the trip may have been short of ideal, but the ground and stiff finish should have compensated somewhat) and I’m just not a fan of Duke Of Marmalade, so my hopes will be pinned on Phoenix Tower. Fast ground clearly isn’t a problem for this horse and, if improving on his Lockinge second now up in trip (which he quite probably will, having raced just five times), I’d expect him to be difficult to beat.
Bankable is the obvious selection in the Royal Hunt Cup, but Overturn has just scraped into the race and will be the one carrying my lead-weight money at a big price. The potential lack of pace on the near side is unnerving, but he attempted to make the running himself on his comeback at Sandown so I remain hopeful. It was actually a decent effort from the horse last time out, returning as he was from a break almost two years. He had been impressive in winning on his second start, on fast ground, and with the Swinburn horses in decent form he’s an each-way option against the favourite.
I had heard plenty of good things about Baileys Cacao before her debut at Windsor, and the subsequent comments of Richard Hughes would lead me to believe that she’ll go very close, but it was hard not to be astounded by the debut performance of Shyrl. She found herself up against impressive debut winners Danehill Destiny and Prolific and, despite having never seen a racecourse before, proved to be more than a handful. Slight interference toward the end of the race may have prevented Shyrl from finishing much closer to the winner, and if in anything like the same form has to go close.
The closing race, the Sandringham, is also a ‘sit back and enjoy’ event but if forced I’d just take Maramba to beat Makaaseb. There’s no doubting that the latter looked unlucky beind Raymi Coya last time, but she may find herself short of room from stall four and Richard Hills isn’t a man I’d want to be siding with in that instance.
Let’s get day one over with first, shall we!
all these topics really getting to you LGR??
Should have had a separate forum for ascot…..
I’m worried about the ground being too fast for Literato DJ, IMHO he needs a bit of cut to produce his best- I’ll be looking for him to bounce back in the Autumn after a mid-season break. I fancy Ask to run really well and think 8/1 is a good each-way price as this race is sure to be truly run and his run in Canada is as good as anything else here.
I like Haggas’ maiden winner Aqlaam in the Jersey and am backing 2 in the Hunt Cup each-way against the jolly in We’ll Come and Oceana Gold at a huge 33/1 with Victor, which will last as long as McCririck’s deoderant tomorrow morning.Couple of outside e/w punts for me tomorrow:
Tawaash – 2.30 – Expensive colt being brought along slowly by Michael Jarvis who is adept at that style of handling. Needs to step up but at 50 on bf i’m willing to throw a few quid e/w at it.
Majestic Roi – 3.00 – 3 group winners in the race, 2 having won a G3 each are 3.6 and 4.9 (at time of writing), the G1 winner is 20. Admittedly she flashes her tail but 1m on GF ground is what she needs and with a bit more than 4/1 available on the place I think she is a very good e/w bet, particularly following an encouraging run last time. Stoute’s filly will inevitably be difficult to beat but Majestic Roi is the value bet.
Quite possibly Aragorn, but even that would be just as flooded as the main board; there are 21 Ascot-related threads on the first page of the forum and it’s only day two.
I’ve just backed Shallal at 85.0 on Betfair, though have only be laid £3 at 19.0 for him to place. I’ll be investing in Phoenix Tower (5/1), Shyrl (8/1) and Overturn (33/1) with Ladbrokes in the next few minutes – the price on the second-named is huge in my eyes.
It would appear that Pricewise has put up Makaaseb at a stand out 5/1, marble, so I hope you didn’t take the SP (not that he had that much influence today anyway, mind).
Okay, so there is every chance that Godolphin have ruined him, but Literato is a 4/1 shot on Champion Stakes form. He wouldn’t be the first horse Godolphin have bought back from the dead at this meeting (remember Refuse to Bend in the Queen Anne?) and I think Ladbrokes have taken a chance at 20/1.
Cruel Sea looked potentially a pattern filly last year but has been running over the wrong trip this year. Surely she’ll settle better back at 8f and if she does, I think she can show herself well handicapped.
Harvest Queen appears to be 7 times the price of Heaven Sent in the Windsor Forest yet stop the race 1f out in the 9f Dahlia and there’s nothing between them, in fact the drop back in trip should suit Peter Makin’s filly. Heaven Sent appears to be priced upon the acievements of Peeress, Chic et al, rather than on what she has achieved herself. Back to lay traders can surely get themselves a free bet providing they aren;t too greedy gievn how well Harvest Queen travels.
I just came on here to make the same observation myself, excellant appraisal David. My price to beat for Heaven Sent is 100/30. She is improving rapidly after all. But Harvest Queen I make a 7/1 chance. 18/1 available on betfair. That’s a bet with a capital B. The only negative I can see is the trainer not being in such good form as when the two met at Newmarket.
I agree with Cruel Sea too, been running over the wrong trip. When I went around the stables at the Lambourn Open Day, Cruel Sea and Zaahid stood out! Again though, stable could be in better form. Shabiba also caught the eye.
I think Ask at 8/1 and Pipedreamer at 15/1 are the value in the POW.
Stimulation 10/1 and War Office 17/1 are particularly good value in the Jersey (imo).
Value Is Everything
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In the Prince Of Wales, I think that Duke Of Marmalade is over-rated. The horse has won 2 soft gp1’s this year and in my eyes his form is more or less the same level as it was last year.
Ask has the better form in the book with his Woodbine 2nd, will improve as horses of his age invariably do when kept in training with Sir Michael, and should get a stronger pace than he had for his warm-up in the Gordon Richards. Looks the bet of the day for me.
In the Jersey, Il Warrd should be more tractable over this 7f than he was over Longchamp’s mile where, though he burnt himself out earlier, he was still a force until half a furlong out and should go close in this.
In the Hunt Cup, though he still might prevail, I wouldn’t touch Bankable with someone else’s money on the likely fast ground.Bankable should be a banker (pardon the pun) in the Hunt Cup but I’m always wary about horses that have form on both soft and firm ground. For some reason, I prefer horses to have a distinct preference.
The RP have it about right, saying that everything is in the horse’s favour – trip, weight, jockey, trainer, ground etc. I’d agree with most of it, but the fact that the horse has ran five times, four of which have been on good to soft or softer means he has to be opposed today. Yes he won on good to firm (only his maiden mind), hence my opening paragraph, but at the odds I’d rather be a layer than a backer – anyone got any thoughts?
As an alternative I’m all over Docofthebay at around 12’s – especially each way. He is the most consistent of animals and loves these big field races. Trip and ground are fine. He has a high cruising speed and will be be bang there a furlong out. There is always the danger that something will quicken better, but as an each way prospect he looks solid. Confidence is boosted by his Sussex Stakes entry, suggesting the horse is still improving and is ready for a step up in class – he would surely have to go close today then if that entry is to be realised.
Mike
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