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The type of horse that over the long term keeps the bookies in clover.
A miserly 7/4 at the moment. Bankable’s opponents in his last 4 runs have a subsequent record of 2 from 62 on turf, an ordinary Listed race plus a 0-70 handicap. Hunt Cup favourites haven’t even placed in 8 of the last 10 renewals. Add in the Frankie factor, the name of the horse, the barrage of ¨handicap good thing¨ bookmaker PR over the next few days and it all leads to the ultimate overbet favourite.
May still win, but Bankable encounters a whole new experience next Wednesday. Over the longer term the classic against the crowd horse. Lay.
Bankable has so many things in his favour he is hard to oppose.
However I would rather try and find a 7/4 shot in a 7 runner novice hurdle than depend on him in a large field at Ascot.
Wouldn’t lay him or bet him.
Draw may be his undoing. Crazy price in such a competitive race with the complicating factor of the draw still to be decided.
CR…The draw is going to be obviously significant, but you’ve not mentionned the fact that Bankable demolished Lady Gloria last time out and she then went and won a competitive Group 3 on Derby day; where all the fillies (bar one) were rated over 100. Lady Gloria is now rated 106 with Bankable 94.
What price do you think he should be ?
Havent looked at the race in any great detail BSB. Normally my form book study is limited to pattern class races of 10 runners or less, mainly due to laziness, it takes me about an hour to do one properly.
With regards to the Lady Gloria race, I wouldnt get too carried away. As Richard Hoiles said in commentary "the ride won her the race". Her 2 main rivals in that race are both hold up horses and its almost impossible to win from the back at Epsom over a mile. The French horse on a different track would have beaten her imo. A victory for Queally and the quirky nature of the track rather than the formbook imo.
This will be a gut feeling lay, I just feel its a crazy price for such a competitive race and a horse who has yet to be seriously tested.
Even if your lay of Bankable is successful it’s only the equivalent of backing a 1/2 winner, hardly anything to write home about is it? Surely if you want to oppose the beast you should be doing it by backing other horses in the race.
Laying is all about finding short-priced horses that don’t win, yeats.
Bankable’s price is as much down to the official handicapper’s comment of ‘he’s thrown in’ as anything else, though with Luca Cumani continuing in superb form I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss him out of hand.
It’s most definitely a ‘morning of the race’ decision as I’m sure the rip off merchants…sorry, telephone tipsters…will undoubtedly have a dozen or more sure things against the favourite.
Agree with the comments made about the significance of the draw.
It will be interesting to note the response of the Ascot authorities if the results in any way replicate last year’s.
There were thirteen races, with 12 or more runners, run over the straight course at Ascot at last year’s royal meeting.
Only one of those races was won by a horse running from a single digit stall. The stalls were placed in the centre of the course last year and will be in the same position for Tuesday. Obvioulsy the distribution of ‘pace’ is important, but those stats from last year make for interesting reading.
Surely it less about the comment that the horse is thrown in, and more about the fact that if the handicapper could allot the weight he feels Bankable deserves, then he would give him an extra 14 lb. I’m struggling to come up with any negatives about the horse and unless there looks like being some sort of freakish pace bias against him, then I’ll not have a problem backing him at around 7/4 or 15/8.
Laying is all about finding short-priced horses that don’t win, yeats.
Agree. I’d normally rather find something to beat it, but in this case given the task, size of opposition and price, a lay is the way forward for me.
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If there is a negative about the horse it could be the possibilty of fast ground?
In his only run on such as surface, it took him all day to get on top over a stiff Im at Newcastle, and in his penultimate race, even on soft ground he was being pushed from 3 out, though he asserted easily in the end.
Having said all that, given good ground or better, I would back him with much more confidence at 7/4 than such as Duke Of Marmalade.A fascinating race in prospect and (as usual) some interesting comments on here.
I’ve already said on another thread that backing a 1.8/1(on Betfair now) shot before the draw is known in The Hunt Cup is asking for trouble – no matter how well-in the horse seems to be.
There are probably a few more horses in the race that will turn out to be well handicapped, probably from lesser stables than Cumani and so less obvious.
For my part, I fancied We’ll Come of Michael Jarvis for some time (now only 9/1). I’ll keep my money in my pocket thanks.
Is 1.8 to one VALUE?
The answer is clearly no.
That won’t stop the horse winning. But I’d suggest the value about Bankable has long since gone and anyone who backs the horse now is doing the equivalent of buying shares in a company at the top of the market: not a policy for long term profit.
If you were asked to name the winner of this race or you’d be shot – then we’d probably all pick Bankable. But that’s not (fortunately) what this is all about It’s about value.Wouldn’t it make more sense to wait and see where the horse is drawn. A (seemingly) bad draw and you’ll get better than 1.8 (before commission). A good draw? Well, come on, is it going to shorten much more? Evens perhaps?
I’ll say again, whatever VALUE there was about Bankable – it isn’t there now. You shouldn’t buy shares at the top of the market and you shouldn’t back a horse at 1.8 to one in the Royal Hunt Cup before the draw is known. If I HAD to try and make money out of Bankable, I’d lay my nuts off it now and hope to buy back when the draw is known (hoping it would be unfavourable) or buy it back in running.Bankable has so many things in his favour he is hard to oppose.
However I would rather try and find a 7/4 shot in a 7 runner novice hurdle than depend on him in a large field at Ascot.
My thoughts exactly.
I’d rather back him than lay him though if pressed, because unless he gets a bad draw, there isn’t any reliable reason why he won’t win as the handicapper thinks he should do – when laying, I can’t rely on intangible things involving the size of the field, the pace, etc, when betting on the equiverlent of a 1/2 shot.
Is there only one horse in the race with some significant amount in hand of the handicapper?
If everyone keeps on dissing this animal he might actually go off a tidy price.
I personally would not want to play at this price but I would rather be with him than agin him.
He impressed me last time out, not because of the performance but because he got really warm beforehand, ran free and still put it to the others in a good style, a similar peformance will get him home comfortably.
I think Lang Shining has been good value, particularly for e.w. punters. His form looks very good, his breeding could scarcely be better.
If everyone keeps on dissing this animal he might actually go off a tidy price.
I personally would not want to play at this price but I would rather be with him than agin him.
He impressed me last time out, not because of the performance but because he got really warm beforehand, ran free and still put it to the others in a good style, a similar peformance will get him home comfortably.
I’m certain he will drift on the day (like Purple Moon did in last year’s Ebor). These kind of horses do… bookmakers will be laying him purely on the price, and becuse they (the on-course ones) won’t have taken a penny for him yet so will need to attract a few decent bets.
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