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Third best is taken from the RP forecast prices, so treat all the horses at 33s as ‘equal second.’ That makes Polar Red the selection (I think!).
Preferably I’d have no selection in the race anyway, as I’ve backed Roman Ark!
Bloody uni’ work, just gets in the way…..
empty wallet
Savoy Chapel (4.10 Wolverhampton) 1st @ 3/1 (+3 points)
LookingForAWinner
Reflected Glory (3.25 Bangor) 2nd (-1 point)
Tooting
Magical Wit (1.25 Wolverhampton) 1st @ 2/1 (+2 points)
andydawes
Magical Wit (1.25 Wolverhampton) 1st @ 2/1 (+2 points)<br>Banker Count (3.45 Kempton) 1st @ 10/1 (+10 points)<br>Suffolk House (4.10 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Celtic Son (4.20 Kempton) 1st @ 1/3 (+0.33 points)<br>Salon Prive (4.40 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Errol (5.00 Bangor) 2nd (-1 point)
Hoofhearted
Vulcan Lane (2.50 Kempton) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Llamadas (4.10 Wolverhampton) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Celtic Son (4.20 Kempton) 1st @ 1/3 (+0.33 points)<br>Foly Pleasant (4.30 Bangor) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Mister Marmaduke (4.40 Wolverhampton) 3rd (-1 point)
Congratulations to andydawes who pulled himself from the depths of system obscurity with three winners, including 10/1 chance Banker Count.
Running totals…..
empty wallet 0 points (1/4) ROI 0%<br>LookingForAWinner +4 points (2/7) ROI 57/1%<br>Tooting -3 points (1/6) ROI -50%<br>andydawes +5.66 points (6/21) ROI 27%<br>Hoofhearted -14.04 points (5/29) ROI -48.4%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 5:33 pm on Feb. 11, 2005)
Apologies for my tardiness! Here are today’s qualifiers…..
empty wallet
Soyuz (3.20 Southwell) Unplaced (-1 point)
LookingForAWinner
Glaramara (3.20 Southwell) Unplaced (-1 point)
Tooting
No Qualifiers
andydawes
Quincannon (1.50 Southwell) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Myson (2.10 Huntingdon) 2nd (-1 point)<br>How’s That (2.50 Southwell) 2nd (-1 point)
Hoofhearted
How’s That (2.50 Southwell) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Sleeping Night (4.00 Wincanton) Fell (-1 point)<br>West Coaster (4.10 Huntingdon) 2nd (-1 point)
empty wallet -3 points ROI -100%<br>LookingForAWinner +5 points ROI 83%<br>Tooting -5 points ROI -100%<br>andydawes -3.67 points ROI -24.4%<br>Hoofhearted -10.37 points ROI -43%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 11:53 pm on Feb. 10, 2005)
Day 5 from Camp Bring-It-On (sorry they’re a little late)…..
empty wallet
No Qualifiers
LookingForAWinner
Parknasilla (2.55 Carlisle) 2nd (-1 point)
Tooting
No Qualifiers
andydawes
Jaccout (3.30 Carlisle) Non Runner<br>Vulcan Lane (4.05 Carlisle) 2nd (-1 point)
Note: Vulcan Lane races over 2m today, but has won over 2m 1/2f. He has been taken as a qualifier.
Hoofhearted
Kinsman (12.50 Lingfield) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>The Last Cast (2.55 Carlisle) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Quantam Leap (3.05 Lingfield) 3rd (-1 point)<br>Tizi Ouzou (3.50 Ludlow) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Vulcan Lane (4.05 Carlisle) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Macgeorge (4.25 Ludlow) 3rd (-1 point)
Running Totals…..
empty wallet -2 points ROI -100%<br>LookingForAWinner +6 points ROI 120%<br>Tooting -5 points ROI -100%<br>andydawes -0.67 points ROI -5.5%<br>Hoofhearted -7.37 points ROI -35%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 8:53 pm on Feb. 9, 2005)
The LGR camp pitch in with…..
empty wallet
Maddie’s A Jem (4.40 Southwell) Unplaced (-1 point)
LookingForAWinner
Danelor (4.10 Southwell) 1st @ 5/2 (+2.5 points)
Tooting
Bundaberg (3.40 Southwell) Unplaced (-1 point)
andydawes
Zinging (1.00 Lingfield) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Double M (3.00 Lingfield) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Turn ‘n Burn (3.30 Lingfield) Unplaced (-1 point)
Hoofhearted
Argento (2.20 Market Rasen) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Winners Delight (3.30 Lingfield) Unplaced (-1 point)
Running totals after day four…..
empty wallet -2 points ROI -100%<br>LookingForAWinner +7 points ROI 175%<br>Tooting -5 points ROI -100%<br>andydawes +0.33 points ROI 3%<br>Hoofhearted -1.37 points ROI -9.1%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 6:49 pm on Feb. 8, 2005)
Lineform,
I’m struggling to understand what exactly it is you’re getting at, but it seems as though you disagree with the ROI method of showing how successful a system, or indeed a punter, really is.
What the method does is represent profit, or loss, as a proportion of the total amount of money invested. It is an entirely accurate reflection of how well someone performs overall. It is not detailed in terms of the number of bets or the number of winners, but it is a simple, impressionable measure of profitability.
What you seem to be hinting at is looking at things in terms of an individual stake. So, if you’re regular stake is £10 and you had 7 losing bets (to 1 point stakes), your loss would infact be 700%, rather than 100%. This, for me, is the wrong way to look at things. You are in effect summarising monetary loss and this means nothing from one to person the next. We all have our levels and £70 to you, is £7000 to someone else.
On average, if taking punting seriously to any degree, you should work toward winning 10% of what you are prepared to stake per day (or whatever period of time you choose to allocate). So;
If you are prepared to bet £500 per day/week, your aim is to make £50 per day/week. Conversely, if you want to be making £200 a day/week, you need to be prepared to stake £2000.
I use this (although I will vary the percentages on occasion) method when I am more ‘practical,’ in my approach to my betting.
But getting back to the ROI method, just remember two simple rules;
i) The closer to -100%, the worse the system (or punter) is performing).
ii) The further from 0%, the better the system is performing. And if calculated over an extended period of time, anything above 10% is good.
Day Three qualifiers for team LGR…..
empty wallet
Musical Gift (3.20 Southwell) 2nd (-1 point)
LookingForAWinner
Kids Inhreitance (4.10 Sedgefield) Unplaced (-1 point)
Tooting
Paris Dreamer (3.00 Wolverhampton) 2nd (-1 point)
andydawes
Dark Parade (4.20 Southwell) 1st @ 5/6 (+0.83)
Hoofhearted
Pawn In Life (1.50 Southwell) 1st @ 3/10 (+0.3)<br>Emaradia (2.30 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)
Running totals then…..
empty wallet -1 ROI -100%<br>LookingForAWinner +4.5 ROI 150%<br>Tooting -4 ROI -100%<br>andydawes +3.33 ROI 41.6%<br>Hoofhearted +0.63 ROI 4.8%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 6:29 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
The fact is lineform, you can use all sorts of methodology in the ways you show/keep track of your profits (or losses). As long as you know what you’re looking at and it is made clear to othres what the figures mean, there is no problem whatsoever in how you do it.
For me though, the ROI process is simple, is known by most people and is the most ‘impressionable,’ way to show your results.
All it is looking at, is how much people have made (or lost) in comparison to how much they have ‘put down.’ It makes sense then that, if you back 10 horses and they all lose, you’ve lost 100% of your stake i.e. all of it.
I think the confusion comes in when you equate 1 point (i.e. the stake per qualifier in the case of this competition) to 100% and then multiply that by the number of losers.
That’s kind of looking at things from the perspective of an individual bet, rather than the system’s performance as a whole.
Lineform,
The percentages given relate to the Return On Investment for each person’s system.
Each selection is backed to 1 point (Win) level stakes. If you the divide total profit (or loss) by the number of selections made (and, in this case, the total stake) you arrive at the percentages given.
So, if you had made 6 selections, with 1 winner at 6/1 and 5 losers…..
6 selections to 1 point stake = 6 points<br>Profit = (1 X 6) – 5 = +1 point
Your ROI is then…..
(profit/total stake) * 100 = (1/6) * 100 = 16.67%
I’d honestly take little notice of most tipsters percentages etc. Some of course are honest, but a majority massage them to suit themselves.
I can’t count the number of times I’ve received a tipster’s leaflet in the post, worked out all the percentages, average prices etc. from the information they give about their bets and they turn out to be nothing like what they claim. They expect everyone to take what they read as gospel and feel they can make it up as they go along because of this.
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 6:00 pm on Feb. 6, 2005)
Qualifiers for Day Two for my lot…..
empty wallet
No Qualifiers
LookingForAWinner
Merryvale Man (3.30 Musselburgh) Unplaced (-1 point)
Tooting
Cleveland Way (2.10 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>La Gitana (3.10 Wolverhampton) 3rd (-1 point)
andydawes
Count Fosco (2.30 Musselburgh) 1st @ 5/2 (+2.5 points)<br>Cleveland Way (2.10 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Radlett Lady (2.40 Wolverampton) Unplaced (-1 point)
Hoofhearted
Count Fosco (2.30 Musselburgh) 1st @ 5/2 (+2.5 points)<br>Radlett Lady (2.40 Wolverhampton) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Carte Diamond (3.00 Musselburgh) 1st @ 1/3 (+0.33 points)<br>Helvetius (4.00 Musselburgh) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Shifty (4.40 Wolverhampton) 2nd (-1 point)
Cumulative Totals then…..
empty wallet 0 points ROI 0%<br>LookingForAWinner +5.5 points ROI 275%<br>Tooting -3 points ROI -100%<br>andydawes +2.5 points ROI 36%<br>Hoofhearted +1.33 points ROI 12%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 5:13 pm on Feb. 6, 2005)
Thus far, with 13 systems’ qualifiers listed;
Kew The Music (12.50 Lingfield) has received three mentions.
Mister McGoldrick (3.05 Wetherby) has received two mentions.
Terminate (2.25 Lingfield) has received two mentions.
First day selections for my lot…..
empty wallet
No Qualifiers
Lookingforawinner
Supreme Serenade (3.25 Sandown) 1st @ 13/2 (+6.5 points)
Tooting
Kew The Music (12.50 Lingfield) 3rd (-1 point)
andydawes
Kew The Music (12.50 Lingfield) 3rd (-1 point)<br>Daryal (1.10 Sandown) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Tom Fruit (1.25 Wetherby) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Lakota Brave (4.05 Lingfield) 1st @ 5/1 (+5 points)
Hoofhearted
Quantam Leap (12.50 Lingfield) 1st @ 13/2 (+6.5 points)<br>Miss Fahrenheit (1.05 Chepstow) 3rd (-1 point)<br>Great Travel (1.40 Sandown) Unplaced (-1 point)<br>Rooster Booster (2.15 Sandown) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Figaro Du Rocher (2.45 Chepstow) 2nd (-1 point)<br>Compton Bolter (3.35 Lingfield) 3rd (-1 point)
After Day One:
empty wallet 0 points ROI 0%<br>LookingForAWinner +6.5 points ROI 650%<br>Tooting -1 point ROI -100%<br>andydawes +2 points ROI 50%<br>Hoofhearted +1.5 points ROI 25%
(Edited by LetsGetRacing at 6:12 pm on Feb. 5, 2005)
At the moment ; Eye of the Tiger by Survivor.
However , I can feel a bit of Sinatra coming on in the next few minutes :)
The Zutons are fantastic , although I am now interested to hear how The Killers and Bloc Party compare.
The ‘ new ‘ music scene is at a pretty high standard at the moment , with the likes of Franz Ferdinand , Keane , Snow Patrol and Athlete still going strong.
Just one point though Martin – Flip n bloody fill ?! You need a switch from Gatecrasher to God’s Kitchen or Slinky my friend ! Once you are graced with the presence of Ferry Corsten , you’ll never look back ! We had Ferry and JFK ( played a phenomenal set , rounded off with the classic that is Good God ) at Creation in Bristol , before it was bought out – pure class.
