Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Yeah forget everything else I said and just focus on the tape thing lol. Sign of someone without a substantial argument. Pick the weakest thing I said and discount that rather than all the other points
You guys saying you can’t see a way how the race can pan out so that Santini wins? Seriously? Haha
If the race had been 25 yards further last year he’s infront ! You mean to say if they let the tape down 20 yards short of the tape line like they do some races that he wouldn’t have won? Think it’s pretty easy to see how Santini can win a gold cup but I’m not saying he will. Could quite easily have won last year with 20 more yards plus he had to switch out at the last fence costing some ground in a race that didn’t exploit his stamina.
But now there’s people saying if the race is run at a stronger pace he will be outpaced early on? So which one is it?
It was slowly run last year yet the ‘slow boat’ was finishing faster than al boum and the rest of them? So he can’t be that slow if he’s sprinting up the hill faster than them? And also others saying if it’s a strong gallop he gets outpaced in the middle part of the race. You can’t have it both ways. Either the strong pace will suit better or it wontYep the horse is a bit of a pig at the minute and far too immature. I said he would be much better next season but I’m not even confident of that anymore as he’s so unprofessional you’d never be confident in him. Maybe good ground fast pace race would help but wow he won’t be ready for another 4 years haha
It’s madness that people completely wrote him off after his hurdles debut. The horse was as green as grass!! Did absolutely everything wrong. Although I do believe he is just too immature this season to be honest he will probably be a much better horse next season. But you never know, maybe hendo has worked his magic and he will settle and jump better this time. I’d say he’s certainly got plenty of natural ability
Initially when silver streak beat Epatante and ballyandy was 15 lenghts behind Epatante i thought wow maybe Epatante underperformed a tad but not much and maybe silver streak just ran a career best and tactics really boosted his performance.
Now having seen ballyandy get stuffed by buvuer dair and Navajo pass in the same manner it makes me think that maybe ballyandy has just blown up in his last 2 runs and not ran to form whatsoever.
Which leads me to believe that maybe Epatante underperformed more than I first thought in the Christmas hurdle, whether it be yard form at the time or in season or the bad mistake she made or maybe just wasn’t herself.
Anyway my point is that I now think that there was definitely something up with Epatante at Christmas and that she can bounce back and beat silver streak at Cheltenham. Whereas I was having some doubts about her getting beaten in a strongly run 2 mile race. But now I have slightly more confidence in her after yesterday
Buzz 20/1 – he ran a cracker in welsh champion on seasonal debut which is a race that’s worked out extremely well. Then won in a canter next time out. 2nd subsequently but the ground was very soft that day and although hendo said he handles it his best performances have been on ground slightly quicker and he’s a strong traveller and does it better on quicker ground. Bit faster ground in March should suit him down to the ground
Mister Coffey – 25/1
Has a similar profile to buzz but probably less exposed. Won handicap debut like a good horse then was 6/4 for a hot handicap next time out but only 3rd but again the ground was much softer that day and it didn’t suit him as a strong travelling type and didn’t travel in the same way that day. Spring ground will help him tooHorses generally better their hurdles rating so that’s why I am assuming asterion can run in the 160s. Plus asterion would have a better hurdles rating if Cheltenham was right handed as he would have gone very close to shishkin. And it’s right handed today of course
I fully expect Asterion to run to 160 today or maybe a little higher if he stays on his feet.
So envoi has to run in the 170s today which is some ask for a novice.
For me Asterion has to be the play. It’s a win win situation. If he wins you win money, if envoi can some how give him 11 pounds we get to witness greatnessHow on earth is envoi going to give asterion 11 pounds? Way I see it is that if Cheltenham was right handed asterion wouldn’t have been far off shishkin in the supreme.
Asterion seems fully capable of running in the 160s so envoi would have to put up a hell of a figure to beat him. I know he could be capable of it but he would basically have to confirm he’s a superstar on Sunday. I’d have them a lot closer in the betting that’s for sure
Nap: Shishkin/Envoi Allen – best 2 novice chasers I’ve seen since Sprinter Sacre – and the Shishkin debate, sounds like ship only likes bridle merchants. Ship must have thought harchibald was the greatest of all time then. Doesn’t buy horses that show tendacnies to ‘sulk’. You’ll hate Big Bucks, Altior, Paisley Park then, terrible trio of horses
Lay: zanahiyr – often see the winner of this race after Christmas and a lot of these have only had 1 or 2 runs and can improve any amount at this age and haven’t stacked up the English/Irish form enough yet to know who has the better 4 year olds yet.
Each way: Mister Coffey county hurdle. Looked about 2 stone ahead of the handicapper on debut this season and then just seemed to get a bit stuck in sticky ground next time when sent off 6/4 in a hot handicap. Bit better ground come Cheltenham and I think this horse is still very well handicapped
Don’t blame you Mike I have the same dilemma. Hendo recently said in a blog we won’t be seeing him anytime soon. That could mean anything and it wasn’t injury or anything he just said he needs to spend a lot of time on trying to settle him down. But to me it didn’t sound like he’s anywhere near the finished article for them and may not even see him run again prior to Cheltenham and if that’s the case he won’t turn up.
Although, anytime soon could mean anything so maybe he will run in February, who knows but it doesn’t sound good
