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Plenty at the top doubly entered,possibly Hewick at the top,who knows.
Shanbally and The Enabler both have interesting profiles.
Just the one full field in the last 5 runnings,surprising for such a large pot.
Ground will play a part,along with any changes in headgear/tongue ties etc.
Claimers another factor,is the weight reduction enhanced in both slower conditions/longer distances?
Intense Raffles scratched from Aintree,back down to a more realistic 145.Won this in 2024 as a 6yr old on deep ground,marking him out as a thorough stayer at that early stage of his career.He looks a plodder who needs everything in his favour,given the right conditions he remains of interest.
Looks a minefield this far out,looking forward to the final entries.
9/11 aged 7-9
8/11 10-13 or less
9/11 ran within 64 days
7/11 ran at fairyhouse
10/11 won over 24f or further
8/11 min 2 chase wins
9/11 rated 136-144
11/11 min 3 runs current season
9/11 max 6 runs current season
9/11 won current season (the stats dont lie)Hitting form at the right time Budd,especially for January.
Some cracking Ante-post selections to look forward to as well.
Two days of high class racing over the water,intrigued to see how that Irish Gold Cup pans out.
Early days I know,any thoughts on the Grand Annual yet?
Take It easy.
1/8 aged 9 or above
7/8 carried 10-13 or below
7/8 starting price 8/1 or below
6/8 claiming jockey in 1st 4
5/8 won ltoJust the 8 runnings on the RP website of this Grade B staying handicap hurdle.
Quite a strong stat re weight carried in previous renewals,Oscar Sam lumped 11-10 to victory in 2017,off a mark of 131,surprisingly he also posted the fastest time,on ground described as “good”.
Every other winner has carried below 10-13,a quick glance at the finnishing times compared to standard,make for interesting viewing.The standard time is 5m 39 secs,Oscar Sam recorded 5m 51.90,some 12 secs outside standard,nothing else has broken 6 minutes.That evidence alone suggests for whatever reason,this 3 miles in february takes some getting.
Koshari might be a key player,without him weights set to go up 6lb,possibly bringing a few lower down into the handicap proper.
Freedom To Dream has that “Fahey” look about him I agree,Takarengo has not been disgraced stepped up,he remains unexposed at this sort of trip.
Hardy Bloke at the bottom is set to carry 9-04 before final decs,he has a point run behind Tahmuras thats reads well in this type of company,another dark one to ponder.
Lets hope plenty stand their ground,always an informative race at this point in the season.
Hi Rob
Just occasionally I see a topic that sparks the Interest,I would put this one right up there.
Does the age difference on average between the flat horses versus jumpers make a difference ?,adding the field sizes would also be interesting,and of course the distance.
Any number of angles this could have potential,another thought would be where smaller yards employ the hood,are their horses used to training with far fewer horses around them ?
Spent a little time few seasons back looking at right handed tracks that operated in both codes,your local track was one of them.I,d long held the belief that far fewer horses produced their optimum going right handed,worth a second glance as you go forward.
What if the red hood is removed,to reveal a bright red pair of blinkers,all part of the fun.
Whole lot of effort and a cracking read,I hope you reap the rewards from this.
GL
First of the three races over these unique fences.
On ratings Jett does indeed look a standout,will he set out to make all is the burning question.
Getting a clear sight of these fences is half the battle,up with the pace can be a big advantage.
Two I like at current prices are Pont Aven and Dashing Perk.
The former is ex Mullins,plenty of letters to his name in the last couple seasons.Cheekpieces added for his last couple outings,it was his run in the chelt hunters that caught the eye.Travelled well for a long way,his jumping was efficient which has not always been the case,if softer conditions prevail he has the back class to make an impact.
Dashing Perk is a big scopey individual,lightly raced in recent seasons,just the type the good doctor does well with.Got no further than the first in last years renewal,missed the break then became the filling in a three hose sandwhich,not ideal.His latest run at Sandown looked a big step forward,jumped and travelled before giving best late on.Like to see him up there early,if he does take to this course I can see him running well,another that will cope with softer conditions.
As mentioned,some decent pilots in this race,plenty of their professional peers could learn from them,giving your mount time to respond can reap rewards,as can sitting much stiller in the saddle too.
Safe return for them all is paramount,after that anyones guess.
All good,very quiet on the betting front this end.
Had a look back at the times of the last 10 runnings of Betfair,Pic D’orhy carrying 3lb less was the only winner to run faster than GAF,on ground described as good.I have my doubts just how much soft there was at newbury that day ,couple of the chases over further were close to standard.
Twisters runner up is entered in supreme,might shed a little light if takes up that entry.
Hendo has earmarked FS for the county going by his stable tour,watch this space.
Couple I like from your ante-post list,still early days.
Not sure how Jepeck got turned over there,looked all over the winner.
Should be a few handicap entries to sift through in the next week or so.
Getting on a decent percentage running on merit,big part of the game,nice to see,keep at it.
Cracking winner in the Betfair,well done.
Well spotted with FS,all over the home straight,still managed to finnish close up.
Stable been using this race as a marker for a while,Mister Coffey last year worth a replay,same connections.
Only 5,very few miles on the clock,no surprise if he’s much better than 142,entries worth keeping an eye on.
GL
31 entered,max field 16 for this marathon test,forecast soft ground,with rain predicted over the weekend.
Looking at the last 9 runnings,two things caught my attention.
5/9 winners were aged 11 or above,inc two multiple winners in Harry/Neptune.
5/9 winners had claimers aboard,could be a factor come race-day depending on bookings.
Nice mix of promising young stayers,taking on older horses proven over this kind of trip.
I can see the attraction in DDG,I suspect the market might too,any others we can make a case for?
Chidswell … OR 123,12 yr old,lowest chase mark since jan 2019.
More letters and unplaced finnishes in recent seasons,do they tell the whole story?
Noted making late headway on his seasonal re-appearance at Carlisle,it was his run in the Scottish National that really caught the eye.Taken off his feet early doors,he looked likely to be pulled up heading towards the business end,yet come the final bend he made up plenty of ground up that long Ayr straight,despite never really threatening.That was off 129,possibly in calmer waters here,his run style that day suggests this test may well be within his range.
His Kelso form reads …. 3,2,1,2,3
Ground wise he looks versatile,it would not surprise me if he indeed wants a little cut on those creaking joints.
NR yard 3/20 last 14 days,the 20% s/r at Kelso also suggests they know the type of horse to send here.
On a side note,long been an admirer of this trainer,he has an uncanny knack of keeping these older horses going,over a number of seasons.Could be a case of heart ruling the head with this lad,the classic punter conundrum,no bet as yet.
Just one horse from those entered,decent pot on offer for a class 3,lets hope plenty stand their ground.
On fire at the moment VTC,always good to see.
Interesting to see where Midnight Shadow goes next,in capable hands,not sure we have seen the best of him yet.
Just a hunch early doors,reckon the posh one has some real talent in the stable,should be interesting as the season progresses,she,s not known for throwing them in at the deep end.Keen to see where stable jockey goes weekend,entries all over the place,HTT in the welsh national trial looks quite promising on the minimal evidence we have seen.
Catch up soon.
9/12 aged 9 or above
5/12 top 3 betting
9/12 ran within 54 days
10/12 run at aintree
11/12 won over 3 miles or above
11/12 min 13 chase starts
12/12 min 2 chase wins
7/12 won won grade 1-3 race
9/12 already had a run current season
2/12 carried more than 10-1217 of the remaining 26 in the handicap on merit.
No idea if the top weight is an intended runner,without CD things will look a little different.
Only Vic Venturi (2009) and Blaklion (2017) have carried more than 10-12 to victory.
IF the forecast is correct,plenty of agua about saturday,another factor to ponder.
Just over £84 grand to the winner,the welsh national is £85 grand,no surprise we have some really nice horses entered.
Sitting on my hands until final decs,always an informative race this early in the season.Been going well by the looks of it,always nice to see.
Still in there at 5 day decs for Eider,just need the nod now.
Them ante-post fingers still twitching,mittens might be the way forward from now til the 16th.
Terrible news re The Conditional,really does put everything into perspective,RIP fella.
Not sure what to make of “Tiger”,why would they be questioning his mark,if he was GATG ?
Whichever way,just want him out in one piece.
Lots to discuss coming weeks,take it easy.
