Red Hoods In The Preliminaries

[robnorth]

Propping up the paddock rail at Musselburgh alongside another regular, we noticed that two of the winners wore red hoods in the preliminaries. These red hoods are removed either after leaving the paddock or at the start. It got us thinking whether or not there were profitable angles to be had and I promised to do a little research into this.

Red hood wearers are noted in the daily Stewards’ Reports at each meeting. Allowing for the fact that crowds were smaller than usual last year because of Covid, horses may not have needed the calming effect of a hood so much, I started my research from the start of 2022. Monthly returns for those noted as wearing Red Hoods in the paddock or on the way to the start. I think there may have been occasions when hoods were worn but not clearly noted, but I don’t think my recording is far out.

MONTH BY MONTH 2022

January – Winners 13 from Runners 95 (13.7%) Returns (to 1pt win) 46.05 (48.7%)
February – 10 from 59 (17%) Returns 28.02 (47.5%)
March – 22 from 116 (19%) Returns 130.48 (112.5%)
April – 49 from 249 (20.2%) Returns 285.09 (117.8%)
May – 68 from 352 (19.3%) Returns 329.93 (93.7%)
June – 83 from 446 (18.6%) Returns 391.03 (87.6%)
July – 76 from 441 (17.2%) Returns 434.93 (98.6%)
August – 51 from 489 (10.4%) Returns 337.74 (69.1%)
September – 80 from 469 (17.1%) Returns 476.70 (101.7%)
October – 69 from 463 (14.0%) Returns 380.10 (77.1%)

Overall for the 10 months – Winners 521 Runners 3202 (16.3%) Returns 2840.07 (88.7%)

Results for all runners wearing red hoods show performance is better than expected for the group, assuming that average field size is around 9 this year then we would expect a win rate around 11%. Returns show the market under rates these horses to a degree with expected return in the mid-70s. Bear in mnid there are a fair chunk of no hopers in amongst the red hood wearers.

Amonut of horses wearing red hoods went up significantly through the year. It’s logical to assume they will be more likely to be used to calm horses at big meetings, the most extreme example being at Royal Ascot where 96 out of nearly 600 runners wore hoods pre-race.

To weed out the no-hopers I then checked out all those starting at SP of less than 10/1. In case anybody is wondering, I used under 10/1 as I used pen and paper and it was easier to filter the list by marking out all double and triple figure prices.

Results for those under 10/1 SP
January – 12 from 64 (18.8%) Returns 35.05 (54.8%)
February – 10 from 40 (25.0%) Returns 28.02 (70%)
March – 19 from 62 (30.7%) Returns 85.48 (137.9%)
April – 45 from 172 (26.2%) Returns 185.09 (107.6%)
May – 63 from 242 (26.1%) Returns 255.93 (105.8%)
June – 79 from 280 (28.2%) Returns 319.03 (113.9%)
July – 70 from 307 (22.8%) Returns 334.93 (109.1%)
August – 43 from 274 (15.7%) Returns 182.74 (67%)
September – 71 from 294 (24.1%) Returns 329.70 (112.1%)
October – 62 from 268 (23.1%) Returns 270.10 (100.8%)

Overall for the 10 months – Winners 474 Runners 2003 (23.7%) Returns 2026.07 (101.15%)

Promising results though 3 months knocked a hole in profits.

* Results were poor in January and February and it looks as if returns for National Hunt racing are not nearly as good as those for the Turf Flat season. I’m continuing the study going forward and we may learn from the coming months, though I suspect there are more variables at work over jumps so that red hoods have less effect.

* I tried isolating just the main Festival meetings but returns weren’t significantly different to the overall results.

* Royal Ascot seemed to be a testing ground for trainers. Overall 6 winners from 96 winners returned just 25.62, but stripping out anything at 10/1 or greater saw 68 losers ditched and non winenrs so it was a much improved 6 from 28 with the same return.

* The wheels came off in spectucalr fashion in August, though it’s difficult to tie down a specific reason. As many seasoned punters would tell you, sometimes there are just bad runs.

* Profits could be improved significantly by betting at exchange prices or on course.

Main conclusion is that on the Flat wearing a red hood pre-race is a positive performance wise, and results suggest that there is money to be made at the front end of the market. Helpful for those who attend race meetings, although I haven’t checked at whioch point they are added on the BHA Stewards Reports. The hoods must be declared by 1pm the previous day, so the information should reasonably be available to off ocurse punters.

Plenty of other information in Stewards Reports which I may investigate in future.

[Flyers Nap]

Hi Rob

Just occasionally I see a topic that sparks the Interest,I would put this one right up there.

Does the age difference on average between the flat horses versus jumpers make a difference ?,adding the field sizes would also be interesting,and of course the distance.

Any number of angles this could have potential,another thought would be where smaller yards employ the hood,are their horses used to training with far fewer horses around them ?

Spent a little time few seasons back looking at right handed tracks that operated in both codes,your local track was one of them.I,d long held the belief that far fewer horses produced their optimum going right handed,worth a second glance as you go forward.

What if the red hood is removed,to reveal a bright red pair of blinkers,all part of the fun.

Whole lot of effort and a cracking read,I hope you reap the rewards from this.

GL

[robnorth]

Hi GL

Thanks for your comments.

Probably room to expand the study. I started from scratch a few weeks back, so it was easier to note down just meeeting time and horses names. Going forward I can list more details against each horse and see if there are any more nuanced patterns.

Incidentally horses at 10/1 or greater in the betting gave very poor returns. There were just 47 winners from 1199 runenrs returning just 68% of stakes. Suggests with the longer shots that the hood is just ‘well we might as well try something different’.

On your point about right-handed tracks. All my immediate local tracks are right-handed, Hamilton Park, Perth and Musselburgh, and I do look out for course specialists at all three. With Musselburgh there’s the added effect of the linksland soil which is very free draining and often gives good going even in mid-winter. In fact I usually work on Mussleburgh going being a degree better than the official report.

I suspect bright red blinkers are now banned. One trainer got his knuckles rapped for using a red hood when it was due to be worn during the race as these must be another colour. Another got a fine for not fitting the blinkers that were declared, they hadn’t taken any to the meeting but got around the problem by using a pair of visors and ‘adapting them’, presumably with a bit of sticky tape!

One other device which is sometimes used is ear plugs. However these are devilishly diffcult to identify even on course and do one need to be declared. I’ve also noted the different types of noseband, but there seems and increasing trend to use of the Grakle (cross-noseband) particularly with jumpers.

One slightly disturbing trend is the amount of horses wearing tongue-ties, and indeed those that have wind operations, sometimes even a combination of the two. This doesn’t suggest that the breeding industry is serving the sport as well as it might.

I will put up November ‘red hood’ results early in December and we might start to learn if the red hood does work over the jumps.

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