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By my calculations War of Attrition will be running off 2lbs below top weight (11st8), can’t see him winning off that mark Hedgehunter was biggest weighted winner in last 25 years and still 7lbs short of that mark! He also hasn’t run anywhere near his best mark from the GC win which was what three years ago now? You’re taking a leap of faith and on trust that he is still capable of running up to that kind of form, which I just can’t do.
One’s I have back so far and don’t plan to back anymore:
Rambling Minster 16pts EW 20/1
Good solid long distance chaser in the form of its life, ticks all the trends boxes very impressive last time out. Should be running off a nice mark around 10’9. Given a clear rounf hard ot see it out of the frame.Himalayan Trail 12pts EW 33/1 & 40/1
Has a very similar profile to Mangan’s last winner Monty’s Pass, proven winner over 4miles, will be just getting warmed up when the non-stayers are giving up. Questionable recent form but taking a leap of faith that the shrewd trainer will have him right on the day. If Barry G. takes the ride has a serious chance he was very positive about him after the Beecher run. Come on Barry you know it makes sense
Butlers Cabin 8pts WIN 20/1
Has been laid out for this race, proven winner over 4miles and Irish national winner, was travelling like a dream last year before crumpling on landing at Beechers. Negatives is the complete lack of current form but seemed to be coming back to some kind of form last time out in the Kim Muir.Southern Vic 8pt E/W 33/1
I smell a Ted Walsh Papillon style plot with this one, Ruby making encouraging noises about taking the ride too, after last run. Blinkers seemed to improve his dodgy jumping which was a big worry, has the speed and class, stamina a question but Walsh seems convinced it will stay the trip.Character Building 8pts E/W 33/1 & 25/1
Love this horse for the national have been on it for the last two years. Perfectly bred for staying chases, solid jumper and very consistent. Won in some kind of style on the bridle in the Kim Muir off top weight! Usually Chelts winner flop at Aintree but I’ve rarely seen such an easy victory horse barely broke sweat. Seems to have got away with murder in the weights running off 10’6 maximum has a huge chance imo. Although this is my smallest winner it’d be the most enjoyable one for me.Abbeybraney for me…. 10-3 at the moment, possibly anything upto 10-13 on the day will be a nice weight. He would be recieving 15lbs from Notre Pere (who beat him by a head at level weights at Leopardstown in December) and have no doubts the extra distance can work in his favour also.
Dont know who told me this (was a long time ago) but a horse who is more at home over two and a half miles often gets these marathon trips better than the three milers. Not something I would swear by at any means but employed that theory to Drumconvis at cheltenham this year and worked a treat.Abbeybraney is a NR has been for some time.
Personally I think chasing some extra cash rather than putting the welfare of your horse first is shameful, just hope it doesn’t all end in tears.
Looked at this one lunchtime, definitely think Inglis is opposable this time out, took him on with Kasbah last time and was not far from beaten on his fav track. Think the OP hit the nail on the head with Kicks as the value bet will definitely be backing him EW if his price is in double figures, may also take a small chance on Blazing Bailey. Can’t really see anything past these three in the frame imo.
King John’s Castle seems to be the subject of a big gamble at the moment solid blue line all the way through on oddschecker from 40’s into 20’s. Have I missed something here just can’t see anything solid that would suggest this horse is a potential National winner.
For all his idiosyncrasies and boorish, sexist behaviour, I would rather have one John McCririck who is prepared to address the issues facing racing head on, than a dozen other hacks who are happy to tow the sycophantic line and not rock the boat.
Spot on, recently he was the only one to raise the Exotic Dancer injury fiasco on TML, Francome, Tommo and co too scared to even dare to discuss the issue let alone criticise Jonjo’s handling of it.
On the other hand my other half can’t stand him and thinks he’s a sexist pig (big brother viewer, gets dragged to races by me once or twice a year). So I imagine his boorish, sexist routine costs racing as many viewers as it attracts.
Bit gutted about Parsons being pulled out, had a small ante-post on him. Suppose I should have been more worried by the long lay off since his last run and the Cheltenham non-appearance.
Given last years starting fiasco, I’d take all given starting times as approximate, god knows when they’ll go off
I
the betting ring seemed depressed with some poor EW terms and some Win only ( the Exchange effect?).I was pretty pee’d off about that as well every single one of the cartel offering 1/5th odds when you could get E/W. When all the major high street firms where offering 1/4 odds on every race, disgraceful. Not to mention the offers of 5th place guaranteed odds etc you can get from the likes of Paddy Power. I made 75% of my bets NRNB before the festival, next year that’ll probably be 100% won’t be placing any bets in the betting ring. Didn’t there used to be a time when on-course betting was better value than the high street or did I imagine that?
Other than that we had a great time didn’t seem quite as busy as last time I went in 2006 and the weather wasn’t too bad on Friday. Will definitely be back next year.
Policing – or the absence of enough guaranteed policing, to be precise – put the mockers on that idea, aaftershock. The course would have to compete with Cheltenham Town’s home football match on the day for the force’s services.
gc
Hmm okay to that’s 5 bobbies earning some nice OT taking care of the 2 blokes and dog at Whaddon Road, what are the rest of em up to?
All backed E/W in order of amount staked:
Point Barrow – 25-1
Slim Pickings – 25-1
Bewleys Berry – 20-1
Parson’s Legacy – 33-1Still holding out hopes of PB running into a place, Slim seems to have been nicely laid out with only this race in mind as last year so most confident of a win with him. BB impressed in the Becher and last year but not sure he’s certain to stay, ran a stinker at Haydock but not bothered about that really. Parsons just have a fancy for him running into a place and has massive value compared to Cloudy Lane.
